When it hits blue states, they say it is about god punishing them for abortions/gays/transgenders/atheists. What kind of god do they believe in that can be so easily defeated by some government technology?
When it hits blue states, they say it is about god punishing them for abortions/gays/transgenders/atheists. What kind of god do they believe in that can be so easily defeated by some government technology?
I mean some journalist could do that, but would it matter? His initial insanity is only gonna be believed by the cultists who are already voting for, whatever psychobabble excuse he comes up with to a journalist will only be believed by the cultists who are already voting for him. Asking, I guess, shows basic journalism, but when the answer doesn't matter why bother asking the question?
__________________
"Think I'm gonna be the scapegoat for the whole damn machine? Sheeee......."
Once again these polls are all over the place. Just a few days ago they were showing Harris was up in all three of those states. The day to day swings in the polls are really bizarre.
Not really. Different polls have different biases, and with a tight race like this, it's to be expected that different polls will have differing results. If you want to know trends, it's better to follow either 538 or something which combines results of different polls, or keep watching the same pollster and see how their results move over time. (I was about to say it's not an apples to apples comparison, but it's more like... different pollsters put out different kinds of apples...)
That said; there are reports of poll fatigue especially in the battleground states. Only something like 3% of people even bother to answer to pollsters anymore, and I would expect that's bad for the reliability.
Really all signs are pointing towards the US campaign season just being too long, it's a massive distraction and a massive expense, and only serves to alienate people from politics.
Politics should mostly be about other things than elections and campaigns.
Florida threatens to criminally charge TV stations airing abortion rights ad
At least two stations received cease-and-desist letters Thursday written by John Wilson, general counsel from the Florida Department of Health, demanding they pull the advertisement.
Wilson wrote that running the 30-second spot was a violation of Florida’s “sanitary nuisance” law, which is commonly used to charge people with overflowing septic tanks or unclean slaughterhouses. He ordered the stations to remove the ads within 24 hours or open themselves up to a second-degree misdemeanor charge, which in Florida carries a sentence of imprisonment up to 60 days and a fine up to $500.
“The right of broadcasters to speak freely is rooted in the First Amendment. Threats against broadcast stations for airing content that conflicts with the government’s views are dangerous and undermine the fundamental principle of free speech,” Rosenworcel wrote in a statement.
The Following User Says Thank You to chemgear For This Useful Post:
With all their inherent weaknesses, all the prediction models seem to swinging back to favouring tRump fwiw, but appears to be very much a coin toss.
Bonkers.
"The most recent end-of-day electoral vote forecast (270 needed to win):
Rebublican: Trump/Vance (275)
Democratic: Harris/Walz (263)
The vice presidential debate had an influence on forecasted electoral votes, with Vance showing a slight advantage over Walz. Most movement in October has been in the direction of the Republican ticket:
September 30: Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230)
October 1: Harris/Walz (302), Trump/Vance (236)
October 2: Harris/Walz (292), Trump/Vance (246)
October 3: Harris/Walz (298), Trump/Vance (240)
October 4: Harris/Walz (288), Trump/Vance (250)
October 5: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 6: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 7: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 8: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 9: Harris/Walz (263), Trump/Vance (275)
We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7. The expanding war in the Middle East, perhaps? Fundamentally, we are a divided nation, and this is looking like a toss-up election.
Trading volumes have been low since the VP debate on October 1, but slightly higher in the last couple days. October could be a wild ride.
For the first time in US history, we have seen a presidential election go from toss-up to Republican landslide, to toss-up, to a possible Democratic landslide, and back to what could be a toss-up. With about a month to go before election day, there is much uncertainty about the future." https://virtualtout.com/
Plus this one which updates 6 prediction models + the betting odds:
(though the 6 still slightly favour Kamala, they seem to be swinging more tRumps way. Betting odds keep going tRump's way and seem to be strengthening...) https://www.whoisgoingto.win/
With all their inherent weaknesses, all the prediction models seem to swinging back to favouring tRump fwiw, but appears to be very much a coin toss.
Bonkers.
"The most recent end-of-day electoral vote forecast (270 needed to win):
Rebublican: Trump/Vance (275)
Democratic: Harris/Walz (263)
The vice presidential debate had an influence on forecasted electoral votes, with Vance showing a slight advantage over Walz. Most movement in October has been in the direction of the Republican ticket:
September 30: Harris/Walz (308), Trump/Vance (230)
October 1: Harris/Walz (302), Trump/Vance (236)
October 2: Harris/Walz (292), Trump/Vance (246)
October 3: Harris/Walz (298), Trump/Vance (240)
October 4: Harris/Walz (288), Trump/Vance (250)
October 5: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 6: Harris/Walz (283), Trump/Vance (255)
October 7: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 8: Harris/Walz (268), Trump/Vance (270)
October 9: Harris/Walz (263), Trump/Vance (275)
We have not identified a single event to explain the drop in end-of-day forecasts for the Democratic ticket between October 6 and 7. The expanding war in the Middle East, perhaps? Fundamentally, we are a divided nation, and this is looking like a toss-up election.
Trading volumes have been low since the VP debate on October 1, but slightly higher in the last couple days. October could be a wild ride.
For the first time in US history, we have seen a presidential election go from toss-up to Republican landslide, to toss-up, to a possible Democratic landslide, and back to what could be a toss-up. With about a month to go before election day, there is much uncertainty about the future." https://virtualtout.com/
Plus this one which updates 6 prediction models + the betting odds:
(though the 6 still slightly favour Kamala, they seem to be swinging more tRumps way. Betting odds keep going tRump's way and seem to be strengthening...) https://www.whoisgoingto.win/
Anyone in the Silver is artificially inflating trumps odds of winning to drive bets to poly market camp like to explain why all models are very similar?
If you didn't vote in 2020, Cards Against Humanity will PAY you to apologize, make a voting plan, and publicly post "Donald Trump is a human toilet"—up to $100 if you live in a swing state and lean blue.
In response to Musk paying people $47 to people who register someone to vote MAGA.
__________________ Uncertainty is an uncomfortable position.
But certainty is an absurd one.
