American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Senator Clay Davis]

Because you choose to believe America is something it isn't. The rest of us know what it really is. Just don't act shocked and incredulous when Trump wins, most of us won't.

[dino7c]

to be fair it's not going to be close in votes...electoral collage guarantees Trump a shot though. DEI hire

[#-3]

Originally Posted by dino7c

to be fair it's not going to be close in votes...electoral collage guarantees Trump a shot though. DEI hire

All indications are this will be trumps closest election in votes, NY & Cali are both moving from navy to medium blue. No real risk of him winning the EVs, but not likely Harris wins +5 and loses the EC like Clinton.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by #-3

All indications are this will be trumps closest election in votes, NY & Cali are both moving from navy to medium blue.

Citation?

[#-3]

2016 Cali Trump 32% - NY Trump 35%
2020 Cali Trump 35% - NY Trump 36%
Polling Cali Trump ~36% - NY Trump ~40%

Like I said, Trump will not with the EVs for either, but he is trending closer in both. Because those two states account for a huge portion of why Clinton was able to lose while winning the popular vote, the two of them getting closer makes it less likely that it happens again.

If Trump wins the EC, there is a decent chance he will have won the PV too. In 2016 it was just about a given that he would lose the PV, he just happened to get lucky winning the EC the way he did.

*I did make a mistake, Clinton only won the popular vote by 2%

[dino7c]

Harris will win the PV

Trump isn't getting 40% in NY

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

A friend I chatted with on the weekend says Americans are the stupidest people on the planet. I disagree as I know decent, intelligent Americans, an opinion not supported by the polls showing that this election is a toss up. With what we know of Trump, how is this possible? Yeah I know, racism. (I don’t believe polls and still think the Dems substantially outperform the polls.)

Are you suggesting that you should be equally likely to know indecent, stupid Americans if there are so many of them? Don't you think there might be a selection bias in play?

[#-3]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...2024/new-york/

Not really a huge body of evidence, but polling shows he has a good chance of improving his margins on 2020, as there really hasn't been a single poll below his 2020 results.

And I'm not saying Trump will win the popular vote, I continue to think the most likely thing is that he loses both the EC & PV. But assuming a world where we already know he had won the EC, I would say he is the odds on favorite for the PV at that point in time, largely because we should expect Harris to run up smaller margins in her best states.

[corporatejay]

nm

[KootenayFlamesFan]

If this person was a neighbor of someone on CP and said this kind of stuff while walking his dog or something we’d all just walk away and wonder if his family is looking into getting him the proper mental health help he obviously needs. You would never think ‘wow that guy should be in charge of a country.’ He is very unwell.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1841207914226163833

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

I thought you were down here way before I was. We crossed the border exactly one year ago today. Doesn't seem like it was that long ago.

I can apply for citizenship on July 1, 2025. I would like to say that I planned it that way, but I am not that clever.

We aren't sure where we are going to retire, we have assets in both countries and will probably keep it that way unless tax rules change significantly.

Came on L1 visa, then green card.
Have to be permanent resident for 5 years before applying for citizenship. This was our path, yours sounds better. We were also delayed about a year by Covid.

[Mathgod]

Trump remains stubbornly ahead in GA and NC. He's still tied in PA. It's a coinflip election, unfortunately.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

If this person was a neighbor of someone on CP and said this kind of stuff while walking his dog or something we’d all just walk away and wonder if his family is looking into getting him the proper mental health help he obviously needs. You would never think ‘wow that guy should be in charge of a country.’ He is very unwell.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1841207914226163833

He's always had a fixation with washrooms and water pressure. I remember during his presidency, he would regularly bring up the "weak" water pressure coming out of washrooms and showers in California, I think, and how toilets needed to be flushed 3 or 4 times.

[direwolf]

The polls continue to be all over the place, so I really don’t know what to believe anymore. One new Georgia poll has Trump up by 5. Another one shows it as a tie. So weird.

Same with PA. One shows Harris up by 3. Another new one shows it’s a tie.

[SutterBrother]

You know Trump will be live Truthing or Xittering throughout the debate.

I hope the Harris campaign has laid a trap with that.

I look forward to whatever it is.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Doesn't contradict anything. The issues as identified are there regardless of how I fram them and you try and reframe me as bringing them to the front. That's always the funny thing about these debates, you never discuss the issues raised, you just try and debate the individual instead of the point they are making. I always get #### upon for engaging the RW dip####s, but I do so on their on the errors in their posts. You (GGG), PepsiFree, and your ilk always attack the individual instead of the argument because you can't defeat the argument. You can only sway people to disagree with the poster on a false argument rather than the content. You have no argument, otherwise you would focus on those points rather than the ad hominem attacks you use so often.



Same reason you still live in Canada. You still believe you can make a difference, which is why I still live her and work in government. Make change happen from the inside, but as election interference has shown, that is very hard to battle. Operational becomes political because di####s like yourself make it that way. It's why so many are pulling the plug in government, especially in battleground districts like Maricopa, Erie, Wayne, Kent, Wake, and Clark. Project 2025 is an attack on our freedom and liberty, but why discuss that when Trump watches are more outrageous? Oh my God, a fake watch? People are so ####ing stupid, and the latest grift is example of that. That's exactly why the US is on a road to fascism and why Canada is not that far behind. Stupid people focus on the stupid issues rather than recognizing the real threats to democracy and threats to our freedoms.

Actually I live in Canada because even though I think Trudeau is a moron and Liberal policies are making life hard on many Canadians that it is still one of the best countries in the world to live in, and we are not on the path to fascism at all.

I actually think you're completely full of crap.

Like, delusional.

Which is why I don't get why you still live in the US. You're not going to change anything if you actually believe what you're posting. Which you don't. You're just like all the typical delusional people who are going my side or bust these days. Literal political rhetoric at its worst.

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by direwolf

The polls continue to be all over the place, so I really don’t know what to believe anymore. One new Georgia poll has Trump up by 5. Another one shows it as a tie. So weird.

Same with PA. One shows Harris up by 3. Another new one shows it’s a tie.

I heard an interview on NPR last week with a pollster who admitted that they now get fewer than 3% responses to their poll requests. As a result the numbers skew wildly.

I sort of am the opinion poll numbers are now just meaningless clickbait.

[Azure]

Who do you guys thinks answers those polls? Serious people? Like come on. I've never answered a poll truthfully in my life.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by activeStick

He's always had a fixation with washrooms and water pressure. I remember during his presidency, he would regularly bring up the "weak" water pressure coming out of washrooms and showers in California, I think, and how toilets needed to be flushed 3 or 4 times.

How I imagine Trump takes a shower.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by SutterBrother

I heard an interview on NPR last week with a pollster who admitted that they now get fewer than 3% responses to their poll requests. As a result the numbers skew wildly.

I sort of am the opinion poll numbers are now just meaningless clickbait.

The problem is an issue of cybersecurity. Polls are sent via random emails and texts from organizations and people nobody knows directly. I never click on anything from someone I don't already know, and even if I know them, I talk to them first to verify it's actually them before clicking on anything. That doesn't even get into the issues of people not answering phone calls anymore.

There's almost no way polling is accurate these days.