[Signing] Oilers extend F Leon Draisaitl (8x$14M AAV)

[shadowlord]

Not surprised. This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I think Draisaitl wouldn't have had anywhere near the kind of production without McDavid on the team... and Draisaitl is not a $14M AAV player on another team.

This was Draisaitl's chance to ensure a solid paycheque.

He's a top-line player in the NHL, but put him on another team without McDavid and without a coaching system that gifts him 25-30 minutes with offensive zone starts every game, and I'd bet his production is not as much.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

How are they going to afford Skinner/Bouch/McD and field a competitive team?

They wont...Ekholm will also be done. The Oilers will have a steep drop off and a mediocre team locked up for 8 years. Chicago after the cups

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Less depth

And they’re already running a kiddie pool roster

[Doctorfever]

14 is a big number, but he is worth it. Well, he will be worth that much for the first years of that contract.

Do the Oilers really care about the tail end of the contract though? I mean, they are in win-now mode.

I’m not fan of the Oilers, but I guess that’s what you do to try and win a cup or more?

[You Need a Thneed]

Originally Posted by dino7c

The Oilers get worse every season starting next year...its not even debatable

Originally Posted by Buff

Starting this year, actually.

Yup,

they already aren't as good this coming year as they were last year.

And let's remember that they had a hot streak in the playoffs, and probably already didn't "deserve" to be in the cup finals last year.

Also, they started poorly, but had that long winning streak that was mostly undeserved by their play. in that 16 game win streak, they probably deserved to be about 10-6 in those games.

If all else was the same, and they were 10-6 in those games, they are fighting with St Louis at the end of the season to even make the playoffs.

That they are cup favourites going into this coming season is laughable. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they are simply fighting for a playoff spot until the very end of the season, and the only reason why they might not be is that the division isn't stocked with a lot of great teams right now.

They have lost key penalty killers, which was a strength of their team last year.

Their depth has been cut a little bit - which could really come into play if they have injuries.

And they would be a prime candidate for "we played too much hockey last year and can't support that level on an ongoing basis"

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

14 is a big number, but he is worth it. Well, he will be worth that much for the first years of that contract.

Do the Oilers really care about the tail end of the contract though? I mean, they are in win-now mode.

I’m not fan of the Oilers, but I guess that’s what you do to try and win a cup or more?

Contract starts next season, Oilers will be worse than the team that hasnt won yet

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They wont...Ekholm will also be done. The Oilers will have a steep drop off and a mediocre team locked up for 8 years. Chicago after the cups

Will it be even worse news for the Oilers when they sign McDavid in your opinion? Like is today bad news for the Oilers and McDavid signing next summer will be even worse news?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Not surprised. This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I think Draisaitl wouldn't have had anywhere near the kind of production without McDavid on the team... and Draisaitl is not a $14M AAV player on another team.

This was Draisaitl's chance to ensure a solid paycheque.

He's a top-line player in the NHL, but put him on another team without McDavid and without a coaching system that gifts him 25-30 minutes with offensive zone starts every game, and I'd bet his production is not as much.

It's an interesting question - what is Draisaitl's actual NHL equivalent? He's an OK skater, has a great shot and is a good passer (not as good as Monster Truck Rally thinks). He's not as good a player as Kucherov, Mackinnon and probably Matthews.
Is his equivalent a JT Miller or maybe Eichel? Panarin (not counting last years burst)?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They wont...Ekholm will also be done. The Oilers will have a steep drop off and a mediocre team locked up for 8 years. Chicago after the cups

This could be best case scenario. When you look at the Campbell buyout and project Bouchard next contract (I project $9.5 mil but I bet it could be more) I have the Oilers with 16 guys signed and $5 mil cap space next year.

They can't afford much more for Bouchard, any cap overages this year and they won't be able to sign/re-sign, and players like they did with Skinner next summer.

Ekhlom and Bouchard also will be as important as any players on the team with that d. Ekholm turns 35 this season. 36 the following. I just don't see how they will be good after this up-and-coming season even if Mcdavid stays.

They will probably be without their 1st in 26 as well after this trade deadline. They lose this year they will be average for at least 5 years after that before they need to rebuild for many years. Just need them to lose 1 more year.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Few? They arent going to have any depth...it gets worse starting next year. In 2 years the Oilers will be far worse than now.

Really IMO the biggest opportunity this gives them is to win a cup this season and maybe next season.

Because if Drai was a pending UFA that's hanging over them all season long and would have caused distraction, now they actually have a shot and this actually drives a bit of excitement in that roster.

But if Drai, Bouchard, and McDavid all re-sign then they are going to have a tough time building any depth.

If you look at the Oilers timeline here:

24/25: Best opportunity to win, mortgaged young pieces of McLeod / Holloway / Broberg to go all in this season with Arvidsson / Skinner/ Henrique

25/26: Raises required for Draisaitl, Bouchard.

J.Skinner, Perry, Brown, Ryan also all UFA. Still a chance to win but will be tough due to contract scenario.

26/27: Raise required for McDavid, S.Skinner.

Ekholm, Kane, Arvidsson, Henrique, Hamblin, Kulak also all UFA. Really tough at this point with key pieces and new deals.

So lots of transition and cap management required for this three year stretch, and then beyond that they will be very old.

Hyman will be 36 and 1 year to UFA, RNH will be 35 and have 2 years left, Draisaitl will be 32 and making $14M, Nurse will be 33 (and probably need to buy him out or move picks to move him).

And beyond Savoie, O'Reilly, Akey, and Wanner they don't even have many "good" prospects, let alone great prospects. And They only have the 2nd and 3rd round picks from the Blues in the first 5 rounds of this 2025 draft, so I expect more 2025 and 2026 picks to get moved soon too which will also hurt longer term.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Will it be even worse news for the Oilers when they sign McDavid in your opinion? Like is today bad news for the Oilers and McDavid signing next summer will be even worse news?

They would be better off trading Drai. Bold moves, they wont win a cup with McDrai on retirement deals.

Oldest team in the NHL

[flamingred89]

Still doesn't change their window to compete. Which is the next year or two. He's going to be 30 when this kicks in. No athlete has ever defeated father time. If/when Mcavi signs at 16+ per. They're going to be handcuffed and won't be able to field a competitive team around 2 aging stars.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

They would be better off trading Drai. Bold moves, they wont win a cup with McDrai on retirement deals.

Oldest team in the NHL

They still could - I actually don't think this guarantees Drai says in Edmonton all 8 years.

I think this lets them go after the cup for this season, maybe next season, they see what happens with McDavid and depending what happens there is still the potential Draisaitl is moved where he wants to go at some point in the future and it allows the Oilers to get a return.

Unfortunately all this means is that Drai doesn't walk as a UFA and the Oilers get nothing in return for him

[Delthefunky]

$14m for a guy that can't carry his own line is a lot of moola.

[Meers]

It’s a fair deal. The price and term didn’t really surprise me. I suspect he will be full value of the money in the front half of the contract. Less so in the back half.

But the Oilers will be in cap Hell, or at least cap Heck, after next season.

[1991 Canadian]

Deserves it. He's a top player in the NHL and elevates his game in the playoffs (despite playing through injuries).

This said, he's 28 and the extension kicks in next year. Like all UFA contracts the general sentiment I'm seeing is "fair value now, may be an albatross in the last few years".

I remember thinking the same think about the Huberdeau contract...

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Really IMO the biggest opportunity this gives them is to win a cup this season and maybe next season.

Because if Drai was a pending UFA that's hanging over them all season long and would have caused distraction, now they actually have a shot and this actually drives a bit of excitement in that roster.

But if Drai, Bouchard, and McDavid all re-sign then they are going to have a tough time building any depth.

If you look at the Oilers timeline here:

24/25: Best opportunity to win, mortgaged young pieces of McLeod / Holloway / Broberg to go all in this season with Arvidsson / Skinner/ Henrique

25/26: Raises required for Draisaitl, Bouchard.

J.Skinner, Perry, Brown, Ryan also all UFA. Still a chance to win but will be tough due to contract scenario.

26/27: Raise required for McDavid, S.Skinner.

Ekholm, Kane, Arvidsson, Henrique, Hamblin, Kulak also all UFA. Really tough at this point with key pieces and new deals.

So lots of transition and cap management required for this three year stretch, and then beyond that they will be very old.

Hyman will be 36 and 1 year to UFA, RNH will be 35 and have 2 years left, Draisaitl will be 33 and making $14M, Nurse will be 32 (and probably need to buy him out or move picks to move him).

And beyond Savoie, O'Reilly, Akey, and Wanner they don't even have many "good" prospects, let alone great prospects. And They only have the 2nd and 3rd round picks from the Blues in the first 5 rounds of this 2025 draft, so I expect more 2025 and 2026 picks to get moved soon too which will also hurt longer term.

The tough part for them is the Campbell buyout jumps big time after this season for 2 years. Might be the 2 worst years for that to jump other than this season....but they have bonus overages this season to deal with.

I agree this year will be their best chance and they might be a real threat, but I'm just not sure they are better. They went on a run and the stats we off the charts good in the playoff run for their top guys. But once they got to the conference finals, they stop skating circles around teams and the points dried up, PP was around 20% the last 2 rounds, only Mcdavid and Bouchard were over a PPG, and it was the PK that carried them. They more than likely will be gifted a trip to the conference finals again this year unless Vegas steps up. But once they played a real team that can contain the big boys, they weren't that good other than the PK that just won't do that again.

I don't see them being a threat after this year and we will see how well Skinner and Arvidsson play when they don't get PP1 time.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I love it. I have been consistently saying that I would love nothing else than for the Oilers to extend both Draisaitl and McDavid to long term high AAV deals. They did came close last season, but other than that, they have won squat with those two in their primes and with relative bargain deals. This will make it even more difficult. As long as they don't find a way to get from under Nurse's deal, I don't see the Oilers building a powerhouse team, especially since their drafting and development has not been good enough.


I would say that this upcoming season is the Oilers' best season in which to try to win a cup. Luckily for us, they are an old team that just had a long playoff run, and it is arguable if they have really improved or regressed over last year. I wonder if this really signifies that McDavid will be extending next off-season as well, or if he intends to move on. Somehow I doubt that Draisaitl would have extended if he knew that McDavid was going to move on.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by shadowlord

Not surprised. This is probably an unpopular opinion, but I think Draisaitl wouldn't have had anywhere near the kind of production without McDavid on the team... and Draisaitl is not a $14M AAV player on another team.

This was Draisaitl's chance to ensure a solid paycheque.

He's a top-line player in the NHL, but put him on another team without McDavid and without a coaching system that gifts him 25-30 minutes with offensive zone starts every game, and I'd bet his production is not as much.

I don't think you are wrong.

Everyone see's the point totals in the playoffs and thinks he's an all time great. The fact is he has, and likely always will be a complete liability away from McDavid. His splits with McDavid on the ice vs off the ice are laughable bad. He's not an Evgeni Malkin caliber type of player who can carry a line by himself and create matchup difficulties. This is exactly why the Oilers have yet to win a cup. He's shown to be an elite complementary piece riding shotgun to the best player on the planet, but that certainly isn't worth 14M, let alone in the 30+ years.

This is solely bad news because it indicates McDavid will be a lifelong Oiler, and he's truly the player that stirs the drink in Edmonton.

Last three playoffs runs for some context

Draisaitl with Mcdavid vs without

TOI - 374 mins / 475 mins
CF% - 59.14 / 45.10
SF% - 56.29 / 43.10
GF% - 69.09 / 38.89
xGF% - 60.23 / 44.56
SCF% - 60.65 / 45.82

[sureLoss]

$104 million of $112 million in salary is signing bonuses making the contract buyout proof

https://twitter.com/user/status/1831001895139237988