American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Just curious on why you think this? the polls are getting less accurate every cycle, party lines are close but it leans left in registered voters, only an independent with a screw loose would vote red right now with the way the supreme court and the loud MAGA crowd is acting.

Here's the way I see it, I think this is going to be a historic election turnout for women voters and they're going to make this a landslide for the Dems.

Not true. According to FiveThirtyEight, 2022 election was more accurately predicted than any election since 1998, and there was no overall bias either way.

People just obsess and complain about polls more than they used to.

Edit: oh, and the news about polls suck.

[EldrickOnIce]

Originally Posted by Ferarri

Hilary is a polarizing figure but she nailed that speech.

She isn't polarizing, she is universally hated.
I don't know why Harris campaign would bring her back for anything.

[SutterBrother]

I don't see how the GOP can overturn Roe v Wade and anyone would think they should win in a landslide?

That's the story of this year - women voting for reproductive rights. Even in ruby red Kentucky.

Major Elections since RvW overturned

2022 Midterms: Voters in California, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana and Vermont all voted in favor of abortion rights on ballot measures in the 2022 midterms (with no states voting against the procedure)—California, Michigan and Vermont’s measures explicitly preserved abortion access, while Kentucky voters rejected a constitutional amendment saying the constitution does not protect abortion rights, and Montana voters rejected a narrow proposal giving rights to fetuses who are “born alive” after failed abortions.

Democrats won key gubernatorial races in Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, ensuring they could veto any abortion bans passed by their states’ GOP-controlled legislatures.

Republicans also failed to get legislative supermajorities in North Carolina and Wisconsin that would have allowed them to override governors’ vetoes and ban abortion

When voters show up, Democrats win. Women are super motivated this cycle.

[Senator Clay Davis]

^^She's not universally hated lol. Trump is somewhere between 100-1000 times worse as a person and he's not universally hated. She is pretty much on par with Trump for polarization. But if the Dem goal is to not have any speaker who aren't hated by almost all of the Trump cult, might as well shut down the convention lol.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Her level of support now is very similar to the level of support Biden had in the 2020 election. So she's not pushing past that, at least not yet. This should be a surprise to no one. Trump has a very loyal core of supporters, and the Trump campaign is pouring unholy amounts of money into blasting the swing states with lies and propaganda. Kamala winning this race won't be easy, but for you to frame it like she's in some kind of dire state and desperately needs the DNC to save her is... not accurate.

What part of "statistical tie" makes it sound like she's in dire straits and needs to be saved?

Betting averages and polls were moving clearly in her favour and now they've stopped moving entirely and settled in at "slightly favour Harris", but still within the margin of error. A week or so ago the hope was that the trend would continue to see her 10 points clear of Trump in the betting averages by the end of the convention - she got up to 8 points, now is back down around 5.5. The polls in the key swing states are still within margin of error and there are many that still have Trump up slightly.

So yeah, she needs to get a good bump here to get the ball rolling again. because momentum shifts in presidential campaigns are frequent and you'd like this not to be in recount territory, at least in the blue wall states, given the shenanigans that could very well take place in GOP controlled areas.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Just my 2 cents, I was always a big fan of Hillary, and continue to be, more so than Bill. She was the engine behind his career, and probably the smarter and more mature of the two. She just never had the charisma necessary to win people over.

[Fuzz]

LOL

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

LOL

For the folks that don't recognize these guys, who are they?

[Coach]

If I'm not mistaken it's the new Marvel team The Eternal Virgins.

[Bonded]

Why does one of them look 50

[Nufy]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Why does one of them look 50

Someone has to buy the beer...

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

For the folks that don't recognize these guys, who are they?

The guy in the middle is Baron Trump, no idea on the rest of the grease balls.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Why does one of them look 50

To balance it out with the one that looks 5

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

What part of "statistical tie" makes it sound like she's in dire straits and needs to be saved?

Betting averages and polls were moving clearly in her favour and now they've stopped moving entirely and settled in at "slightly favour Harris", but still within the margin of error. A week or so ago the hope was that the trend would continue to see her 10 points clear of Trump in the betting averages by the end of the convention - she got up to 8 points, now is back down around 5.5. The polls in the key swing states are still within margin of error and there are many that still have Trump up slightly.

So yeah, she needs to get a good bump here to get the ball rolling again. because momentum shifts in presidential campaigns are frequent and you'd like this not to be in recount territory, at least in the blue wall states, given the shenanigans that could very well take place in GOP controlled areas.

You did say she needs to keep her momentum going in order to win the race, and you said she needs the DNC in order to do that.

She's already turned what was a 3.5 point lead for Trump following the debate disaster, to a 1.5 point lead for her. A 5 point swing in less than 2 months. To expect a simple, uninterrupted continuation of that trend is not realistic considering the nature of this electorate, and considering how much money the Trump campaign is pouring into ads.

Realistically, she needs the race to stay in its current state polling wise, and needs a strong ground game between now and the election to get people registered and win the turnout war. She probably also needs a small uptick in support just before the election to get this thing over the finish line.

[Hockey_Ninja]

I started reading more into the January 6 stuff and it's crazy to me just how much Trump got away with. The false electors plot alone should've stopped him from even being able to run again. The man literally tried to overturn American democracy

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

You did say she needs to keep her momentum going in order to win the race, and you said she needs the DNC in order to do that.

Actually, I didn't say that she needed that to win. Many things can happen between now and November. Once again, your reading skills are failing you. But she does need the bump to restore her momentum.

To expect a simple, uninterrupted continuation of that trend is not realistic considering the nature of this electorate, and considering how much money the Trump campaign is pouring into ads.

I also didn't say I expected anything of the sort. In fact I specifically said that momentum in these campaigns shifts suddenly. When it does, you want to try to get it back. Because if you don't, there is a significant risk that the race won't "stay in its current state polling wise" for another 2 weeks, much less all the way to the election.

This isn't controversial stuff I'm saying here.

[Coach]

Originally Posted by Hockey_Ninja

I started reading more into the January 6 stuff and it's crazy to me just how much Trump got away with. The false electors plot alone should've stopped him from even being able to run again. The man literally tried to overturn American democracy

The hearings should be mandatory viewing.

Honestly if you like things like The West Wing or House of Cards or crime thrillers in general, it's pretty remarkable stuff as far as congressional hearings go.

[Mathgod]

There's a thing called reading between the lines. In post 19396 you really made it seem like she would be in serious trouble if not for the convention.

[Yamer]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Just my 2 cents, I was always a big fan of Hillary, and continue to be, more so than Bill. She was the engine behind his career, and probably the smarter and more mature of the two. She just never had the charisma necessary to win people over.

When it comes to Hilary, I think the majority of people are just like Don Draper in that elevator with Michael Ginsberg.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

There's a thing called reading between the lines. In post 19396 you really made it seem like she would be in serious trouble if not for the convention.

Don't try to do read between the lines, just... read the lines. Stick to what I actually wrote. Putting words in peoples' mouths is an incredibly annoying thing to do.