Should the Flames offer sheet Dylan Holloway?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

They’re not eligible for NTCs. You can only get those for UFA years.

You get a free one year NTC if your team matches an offer sheet.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

You could offer a contract below market value in certain circumstances and probably get them to sign. When a team is already over the cap and they have two former first round picks available you could throw them the Barrett Hayton contract (he of 0.3 PPG last year) of around 2.65 million a year or something similar and pick up a guy who is two years younger and averaged 0.28 PPG in the playoffs. You could probably offer that player 300K a year less than Hayton and possibly get him.

$ 2.3 million is a second rounder in compensation.

Would you trade Andrew Basha for Barrett Hayton?


Also, in order for an offer sheet to work, a lot of things have to line up.

The GM making the offer has to believe that a player has a lot of upside. Otherwise why not just target a similar player in free agency? You are going to be paying at least UFA price for the contract anyway.

The GM being targeted by the offer sheet has to believe that the player does not have a lot of upside.

The GM making the offer sheet needs ample cap space, and their own pick/s for compensation. This rules out a lot of teams that are competitive/contenders.

The GM making the offer sheet needs to feel very secure in their job. The average tenure of an NHL GM is around 5 years. If you make an offer sheet and it turns out to be a flop, that could mean you get fired earlier and you potentially miss out on 1-2 years of salary as a result. Perhaps you burn a few bridges with other GMs and that makes your life as a GM a little harder.

Its easy for fans to talk about taking a risk, but we don't have to worry about it taking food off our table.


Its not exactly easy to see which 22 year old is buried on a depth chart because they are not getting opportunity and which ones just aren't that good. Just look at the Vegas expansion draft for an example.

Various teams gave up assets in order to force Vegas to take players like Karlsson, Theodore, Haula, Tuch, Smith and Marchessault.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by FireGilbert

There must be an unwritten offer sheet rule amongst GMs because you'd think they would be used more often to exploit teams in cap trouble.

That said the Flames are still in the acquire assets stage of their rebuild. Need to wait a couple years to move onto the trade picks for undervalued players phase like Florida trading for Bennett or making a RFA move.

A team that bails Evander Kane and Corey Perry out of the league's doghouse doesn't deserve this unwritten respect, so if they like the player then go ham.

Personally I don't like Holloway as much as others. Occasionally shows wheels and makes a play, but otherwise pretty whelming.

[1qqaaz]

When evaluating Oiler players, you have to consider the fact that their star players play nearly 30 minutes per game. Their other forwards get very little ice time.

Some forwards, like Foegele and Gagner, were surprisingly productive with their little ice time. Both players have more than 2 points per 60 minutes played.

But Holloway only had 1.250 points per 60 minutes played. This is comparable to that of Troy Stecher and below that of Ekholm. On the Flames, this would be comparable to Duehr and Solovyov. However, Holloway may be getting a lot of defensive zone starts. The quality of the line mates matters as well.

Sometimes, production is lower because players are buried. But that doesn't seem to be the case for Holloway.

[The Fonz]

Yes, they should

Where does Holloway go in a 2020 re-draft? I'd suspect 20th-30th overall. I think it'd be great value to trade a ~70th pick (our 2025 3rd) for a player taken 5yrs earlier with ~25th overall re-draft rank. It'd be fair value to trade a ~40th (our 2025 2nd).

I thought Holloway looked fantastic in the playoffs, and while not a Center, Conroy has a made a point of saying multiple times that the Flames are wanting to acquire good players under the age of 26 - Holloway will turn 23 this September.

[Phaneuf_Phan]

Actually he's only 22, turning 23 in Sept.

[The Fonz]

Thanks, edited

CapFriendly is offline now so I don't know for sure, but I think the Flames could offer as high as 2.25M and still be in the 3rd round pick compensation range. That 2.25M would be a problem for the Oilers - they'll be trying to get him at 1.0M.

[bdubbs]

No. Accumulate picks and young centers only. We don't need more wingers.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

Yes, they should

Where does Holloway go in a 2020 re-draft? I'd suspect 20th-30th overall. I think it'd be great value to trade a ~70th pick (our 2025 3rd) for a player taken 5yrs earlier with ~25th overall re-draft rank. It'd be fair value to trade a ~40th (our 2025 2nd).

I thought Holloway looked fantastic in the playoffs, and while not a Center, Conroy has a made a point of saying multiple times that the Flames are wanting to acquire good players under the age of 26 - Holloway will turn 23 this September.

It's been 5 years, at this point you shouldn't place any value on where the player was drafted, only on their on-ice results.

His results are pretty poor. He'll be 23 when the season starts. If you want a 23 year old C you might as well try to grab a guy like Thomas Bordeleau or Hendrix Lapierre who have better results and actually play C than try to acquire a winger with bad results to date and then attempt to make them into a C.

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[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Owen15

We should not offer sheet him.

We should cozy up to Edmonton and take him as part of a cap dump.

Cody Ceci
Dylan Holloway
2025 2nd

Rights to Ohktoyukfuk

Why would we help them?

[The Fonz]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

It's been 5 years, at this point you shouldn't place any value on where the player was drafted, only on their on-ice results.

To be clear, I wasn't placing any value on where he was drafted 4 years ago. I was placing value on where he'd go in a re-draft if the 2020 draft were done again today with the benefit of hindsight (4yrs of results). I expect he'd go 20th-30th.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

You especially don't want to offer a boat anchor contract to a guy who is 22 years old with 18 career points in 89 professional games.

Is this a serious post? The only argument the OP has made is "he could be better next year". Is that enough of a reason to blow cap and draft picks on a guy who to date has shown very little in his pro career thus far?

22 year olds aren't old but they aren't young. Holloway is basically at the end of his developmental runway and hes putting up 4L numbers on a good team.

Hard pass, no thanks.

LOL. Come on. Twenty-two year old players are at the end of their runway now. Okay.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by The Fonz

To be clear, I wasn't placing any value on where he was drafted 4 years ago. I was placing value on where he'd go in a re-draft if the 2020 draft were done again today with the benefit of hindsight (4yrs of results). I expect he'd go 20th-30th.

I still don't see how it's relevant. If anything that's an indictment his development is deteriorating/stalling.

He's 23. Barring a Tage Thompson unicorn-like evolution, he is what he is, and that's a bottom six guy.

I'd rather keep the second and bet on the small chance that drafted player becomes a top 6/top 4 skater, because I think that chance of success is still higher than Holloway developing into a top of the lineup player at this point in his career.

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[GioforPM]

Holloway has just over half the points of Zary. In 26 more games. And I'd be shocked if Zary was offer sheeted.

If the Flames want to offer sheet they should go Mercer, Byfield, Perfetti or Robertson.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

They match it anyway and trade somebody to be cap compliant.

That is sort of Plan B, no?

Offer sheet is not matched - Flames get a young player with promise below market value (i.e. draft pick - a third would be better than a second for sure)

Offer sheet is matched - Oilers need to shuffle the deck chairs to make room for him.

Offer him a contract to UFA. If he pops off, you got an asset that you can trade or keep. If he doesn't, you took a risk and lose a drift pick plus a few million in a rebuilding phase.

The question of course, is whether the Flames scouts value either of these guys to actually make an offer and risk the cash/pick in the process. But it would be negligent to write off a legal avenue for grabbing players just because it is (1) underused; (2) doesnt usually work; and (3) will put a target on the team's back in a decade.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Holloway has just over half the points of Zary. In 26 more games. And I'd be shocked if Zary was offer sheeted.

If the Flames want to offer sheet they should go Mercer, Byfield, Perfetti or Robertson.

These would definitely be better players to obtain, but each of these players would cost more (i.e. higher draft pick) or would be more easily matched due to their importance to the team and the team's cap space.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Holloway has just over half the points of Zary. In 26 more games. And I'd be shocked if Zary was offer sheeted.

If the Flames want to offer sheet they should go Mercer, Byfield, Perfetti or Robertson.

The cost to offer sheet those players would be massive. And those teams would match.

The whole point with Holloway is that A) the cost is reasonable, and B) it would be difficult for the Oilers to match.

It is extremely rare that an offer sheet provides the opportunity to acquire a player at both a reasonable price AND a reasonable cap hit. This is that rare opportunity, because Holloway is definitely worth a 2nd

[Enoch Root]

Connor Zary is fully developed and at the end of his runway. Agree or disagree.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The cost to offer sheet those players would be massive. And those teams would match.



The whole point with Holloway is that A) the cost is reasonable, and B) it would be difficult for the Oilers to match.



It is extremely rare that an offer sheet provides the opportunity to acquire a player at both a reasonable price AND a reasonable cap hit. This is that rare opportunity, because Holloway is definitely worth a 2nd

Could you explain why you feel Holloway is definitely worth a second? I'm just not seeing any on ice results that make me believe we should be considering an offer sheet so I'm curious why you're so confident it's a good idea.

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[Bonded]

Holloway had a very mediocre playoffs and mediocre stats. Holtz is better imo but is at least comparable and seems like Conroy passed on him in the Markstrom trade. Offersheeting him would hurt the Flames more than the Oilers lol