[Rumour] Dreger: Markstrom trade won't happen unless NJ includes Mercer and higher draft pick

[AustinL_NHL]

Theory:

NJ's brass figures they'll finish below the Flames in the standings and be in position to draft Tij Iginla, proceeding to then only offer him straight up for Markstrom without the additional pieces

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

I have very consistently been very clear that trading for Markstrom would be a bad idea

and the trade never happened, so - again, why are you still here?

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Hence why I use GSAx which takes into account quality of shots. 20-21 was actually much worse than 22-23

Spur is that you?

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Well, if you understand the stats you're quoting, you know that when there is random variability, the best guess for future data points is no change.

You’re wrong.

It’s almost entirely random and certainly not statistically significant. The best guess for future data points is a random value based on the mean and standard deviation of the data set, which you may argue should be slightly adjusted based on the extremely weak relationship. A goal or two.

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

He has had one bad season in the 9 ish years he's been a starter and one kind of meh season. The rest are good to very, very good.

His one horrible season was apparently due to I believe a tough or stressful pregnancy.

He is likely to be a Vezina finalist 2 of the last 3 years after this one ends.

This is about as sure a thing as you get in a goalie.

For $3mil a year the risk reward is very attractive and over he next two years gives the Devil's as good a shot as they will find for solving their goaltending issues.

If goaltending is so unimportant I would asky why more teams weren't lining up to take Holtz off the Devil's hands.

Fitz said the entire goalie market was coughing. Perhaps he is due for one of those, "it's not you, it's me" moments.

And Markstrom was my least favourite Flame for his play last year. But hearing why, and seeing him back to form this year tells a story.

Fitz was better off standing pat than trading for Jake Allen.

Yes but the 2 worst years have come recently. And he's aging.

And again, if, as you claim, he was good every year before signing in Calgary, why did he only cost 6 mill as a UFA?

[topfiverecords]

Good lord. 130 posts in one day on another teams board. Strange stuff.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

And again, if, as you claim, he was good every year before signing in Calgary, why did he only cost 6 mill as a UFA?

Says the guy who claims Markstrom was worth nothing because he reached UFA in the first place.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You’re wrong.

It’s almost entirely random and certainly not statistically significant. The best guess for future data points is a random value based on the mean and standard deviation of the data set, which you may argue should be slightly adjusted based on the extremely weak relationship. A goal or two.

And all of this says: best guess is the same

[dgibb10]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Says the guy who claims Markstrom was worth nothing because he reached UFA in the first place.

Not what I said at all.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by butterfly

You’re being silly. Is your argument “I like Markstrom and I like goalies - so there!”? I doubt it, and I don’t characterize it that way. So, please cut it out.

The recent past is the best logical guess of how a goaltender will perform? You really think so?





Quite a convincing argument.

‘Yup, that linear regression looks almost flat! Never mind that the X and Y scales are wildly different, because the whole graph was squashed vertically to fit in the outliers.’

Thanks for the chartjunk.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

‘Yup, that linear regression looks almost flat! Never mind that the X and Y scales are wildly different, because the whole graph was squashed vertically to fit in the outliers.’

Thanks for the chartjunk.

I didn’t make the chart. Read the data table and weep.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Why don’t you just go away. No one cares what you think.

Your team is in shambles run by a complete moron.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And all of this says: best guess is the same

“It came out on red last time. Best guess is the same!”

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Not what I said at all.

My Lord, are you still here babbling away? The deadline is over man, come back after the draft when Fitz trades Mercer to us.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Yes but the 2 worst years have come recently. And he's aging.

And one of his best is right now. What's your point? As has been stated numerous times, last season with the pregnancy stuff going on he was clearly off his game.....as soon as the baby was born he was back to his old self down the stretch. And that carried over to this season where's he's been the team's MVP. And he has 2 more years after this season so the contract clearly wouldn't be an anchor, especially with retention.

If the Devils don't want him, or don't want to pony up a good young player for him, great. Good for you. Have fun with Allen and Daws and the rest of the backups your team wants to acquire. The Devils won't go anywhere, but that's fine with me. Markstrom can get traded somewhere else and the Devils can keep complaining about the acquisition cost and continue to dumpster dive in the bargain bin while throwing away another season next year. Sounds like a blast for Devils fans.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dgibb10

Not what I said at all.

Here's what you said:

Originally Posted by dgibb10

You know how I know goalies like Linus Ullmark and Jacob Markstrom can be available cheaply.

They were both literally acquired for free as UFAs.

So according to you, if a goalie ever went to UFA, he should be really cheap to trade for.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I didn’t make the chart. Read the data table and weep.

I am very curious what you think it says.

Your obsession with it, to the point of ignoring all other information on the subject, is crazy.

Is it at all possible that the goals saved above expected stat does not, in fact, provide an infallible information set? (these stats are FAR from perfect)

[butterfly]

Blame the Oilers and blame the baby. That’s what we paid $24 million for: excuses.

Of course, there’s no chance another pregnancy can happen, right? Wait…it might?!

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I am very curious what you think it says.

Your obsession with it, to the point of ignoring all other information on the subject, is crazy.

Is it at all possible that the goals saved above expected stat does not, in fact, provide an infallible information set? (these stats are FAR from perfect)

It is absolutely possible. Which other stat would you prefer to analyze?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by butterfly

I didn’t make the chart. Read the data table and weep.

You didn't include the data table. You included some calculations based on the data table.

Look, this is supposed to cover the NHL from 2007 to 2021, but there are only 130 data points in total according to the summary. What happened to all the other cases in which a goalie played two consecutive years in the NHL during that time?

Without knowing the criteria on which the data were selected, I cannot assign any value at all to the results. The fact that they were presented in a visually misleading way, however, suggests to me that someone is selling snake oil.