2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don’t think you could trade Kadri’s contract today and it’s not going to get better as he ages.

It got better this year as he aged. I suspect there is a market for 70 point center who makes 8% of the cap and dropping.

[ComixZone]

Ah, you know what’s awesome?

We didn’t extend Elias Lindholm.

We aren’t extending Noah Hanifin or Chris Tanev.

We might be trading Jacob Markstrom.

…that’s all awesome. Just taking a moment to appreciate that Conroy is turning the last era over, and building something new. That’s refreshing to see.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Macindoc

They don't have to just fill the new arena for a few months, they need to have good attendance long term, which will be hard when everyone sees how much more expensive the tickets are (new building, 10% ticket tax). The Flames will need a competitive team to be financially viable in the new arena.

Having a perennially competitive team would probably help in that regard then, right?

Does it really matter whether the team is good at the time of the opening?

Coyotes - doesn't count because they downgraded. In a mess anyway.
Kraken - doesn't count, expansion team
Islanders - were competitive but haven't won a round since moving
Red Wings - doesn't count, can't think of a good reason. Original six team?
Golden Knights - doesn't count, expansion team
Oilers - doesn't count, fans geeked about McDavid
Jets - doesn't count, fans geeked that team moved from out of town
Penguins - were competitive before and after
Devils - were competitive before and after

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

It got better this year as he aged. I suspect there is a market for 70 point center who makes 8% of the cap and dropping.

He’s not a 70 point centre but I’m guessing this will remain a hypothetical discussion and he’ll stay on the Flames. I’ll happily eat crow if wrong.

[Bingo]

I think it important to not assume a contract is bad in its entirety.

Get back to the differential.

Kadri with soon to be 5 years left on his deal is getting much more palpable than 7. His production this year makes the $7M pretty much spot on. We don't know where it goes with age (assume down).

But what if he has two more years similar to this one then a decline for three years ... then we are looking at say $1.5M over paid, $2.5M and $3M. Not really a huge deal.

Huberdeau is probably $4M overpaid now, not $10.5.

Ironically his dip probably makes the future dip less extensive.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Ah, you know what’s awesome?

We didn’t extend Elias Lindholm.

We aren’t extending Noah Hanifin or Chris Tanev.

We might be trading Jacob Markstrom.

…that’s all awesome. Just taking a moment to appreciate Conroy is turning the last era over, and building something new. That’s refreshing to see.

You missed not extending Toffoli and Zadorov. If Conroy trades Markstrom he will buy a lot of goodwill from me for a while.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

He’s not a 70 point centre but I’m guessing this will remain a hypothetical discussion and he’ll stay on the Flames. I’ll happily eat crow if wrong.

Well he was in 21/22 and it looks like he will be in 23/24. Not sure how often you have to get that number or above to be a 70 point center but he looks like one to me.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think it important to not assume a contract is bad in its entirety.

Get back to the differential.

Fair, I think the tail end will scare a contender from trading for him but he’s earning his contract this year.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well he was in 21/22 and it looks like he will be in 23/24. Not sure how often you have to get that number or above to be a 70 point center but he looks like one to me.

I prefer using career averages. Go Olympic if you want.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think it important to not assume a contract is bad in its entirety.

Get back to the differential.

Kadri with soon to be 5 years left on his deal is getting much more palpable than 7. His production this year makes the $7M pretty much spot on. We don't know where it goes with age (assume down).

But what if he has two more years similar to this one then a decline for three years ... then we are looking at say $1.5M over paid, $2.5M and $3M. Not really a huge deal.

Huberdeau is probably $4M overpaid now, not $10.5.

Ironically his dip probably makes the future dip less extensive.

The old rule used to be 100K a point when the cap was like 73 million in 2017. For every 10 points that works out to 1.36% of cap space. In a world with a 97 million dollar cap (which it looks like it might be in 2027) that rule of thumb becomes about 133K per point.

If that old rule of thumb still holds Kadri is earning his keep in 26/27 if he is a 50 point player. 7 million in the outlying years as a percentage of the cap is like 5.5 million or less in 2020.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The old rule used to be 100K a point when the cap was like 73 million in 2017. For every 10 points that works out to 1.36% of cap space. In a world with a 97 million dollar cap (which it looks like it might be in 2027) that rule of thumb becomes about 133K per point.

If that old rule of thumb still holds Kadri is earning his keep in 26/27 if he is a 50 point player. 7 million in the outlying years as a percentage of the cap is like 5.5 million or less in 2020.

Teams were scoring 2.77 goals/game in 2017 and 3.13 goals/game in 2024. So a point from then is worth 1.13 now.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

The old rule used to be 100K a point when the cap was like 73 million in 2017. For every 10 points that works out to 1.36% of cap space. In a world with a 97 million dollar cap (which it looks like it might be in 2027) that rule of thumb becomes about 133K per point.

If that old rule of thumb still holds Kadri is earning his keep in 26/27 if he is a 50 point player. 7 million in the outlying years as a percentage of the cap is like 5.5 million or less in 2020.

Kadri brings a lot in terms of leadership, intangibles, and physical play. I have no doubt, that if he continues to play like he cares, if he's playing at a 45-55 point pace, he will remain easily worth his contract and may even become good value.

[codynw]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I prefer using career averages. Go Olympic if you want.

Career averages is a really dumb way to define what a player is today. Tkachuk is probably about to have his third 100 point season in a row but if you go by career averages he’s an 80 point player.

[stemit14]

Have to wonder what Vegas will do with their cap space at the trade deadline from Stone being put on IR. I could see them going after a forward IMO. Unfortunately, I’m not so sure if anyone available on the flames (Mangiapane or possibly Kuzmenko) would interest them.

On a side note on them. Their annual convenient cap space during the season aside… I have a feeling they will have a Hossa situation with Stone within the next 1-2 seasons. Probably around when Drysaitl or McDavid are available for them to go after in an offseason. Stone will go on permanent LTIR as his retirement… could pick any injury for him and they will essentially get out of the last 3-4 years of his contract where his play relative to his cap hit would likely have become an issue.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by codynw

Career averages is a really dumb way to define what a player is today. Tkachuk is probably about to have his third 100 point season in a row but if you go by career averages he’s an 80 point player.

Tkachuk is also seven years younger than Kadri and still progressing as a player. The age curve is pretty well demonstrated in the NHL and Kadri is on the wrong side of it. I don’t think Tkachuk will maintain 100 points into his 35-37 year old seasons

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Teams were scoring 2.77 goals/game in 2017 and 3.13 goals/game in 2024. So a point from then is worth 1.13 now.

Take some other random year then, the outlying years of his contract will be the equivalent of about 5.7 million a year in 21/22 and dropping compared to 21/22 (the year he was signed). Average goals per game was 3.11 that year, so a point from then is worth 1.0064 now. Either way the expected points needed for his contract will continue to go down.

[edslunch]

I feel like the talk of Mercer and Poitras is overly optimistic and we are likely to be disappointed. Or maybe surprised by something that doesn’t sound as good but turns out ok like the Lindholm and Toffoli deals. I just think teams are loathe to trade their top prospects who have already shown some NHL ability.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by edslunch

I feel like the talk of Mercer and Poitras is overly optimistic and we are likely to be disappointed. Or maybe surprised by something that doesn’t sound as good but turns out ok like the Lindholm and Toffoli deals. I just think teams are loathe to trade their top prospects who have already shown some NHL ability.

I still look at the history of goalie trades and think "Yeah, I'd be happy with a 1st and think it makes sense for the team at this time".

Anything above a 1st is larceny by Conroy.

[Samonadreau]

Originally Posted by butterfly

Teams were scoring 2.77 goals/game in 2017 and 3.13 goals/game in 2024. So a point from then is worth 1.13 now.

Its probably more than 1.13 with up to 2 assists per goal.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don’t think you could trade Kadri’s contract today and it’s not going to get better as he ages.

A lot of people said that about Markstrom at the beginning of this year.