2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Flames1217]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah. That’s what I am struggling with on these rumours. Holtz + a 2nd/1st would be a good return. Mercer + Casey + a 1st than New Jersey better winning up a cup lol. I just really don’t think Markstrom is that guy. Vanacek won’t be expensive to dump in the summer either.

I agree.

I think if it's Mercer than I can't realistically see picks being involved.

Mercer + Vanecek for Markstrom (50%)

Or

Holtz + Vanecek + 2nd for Markstrom (50%)

This is what I believe to be absolutely top top value and would be ecstatic with the return.

[Groot]

Mercer + Casey alone for Markstrom I'd be happy with. Look at the history of late first picks. You'd be lucky to hit on a Mercer or Casey. If NJ throws in a 2nd it's lunacy.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Flames1217

I agree.

I think if it's Mercer than I can't realistically see picks being involved.

Mercer + Vanecek for Markstrom (50%)

Or

Holtz + Vanecek + 2nd for Markstrom (50%)

This is what I believe to be absolutely top top value and would be ecstatic with the return.

I think the cost to retain 6+ million actual dollars and accept a contract in return is a huge ask by the Devils and easily is worth a 1st+ by itself

[transplant99]

Just to clarify....between what it is I heard yesterday and reading between the lines on other reports is.....

The package agreed too by Calgary included Holtz as the only roster player along with other assets (pick/prospect? no idea) that were enough for Conroy to part ways. Mercer not included at any point. Also, Vanacek NOT part of the return.

The amount/value of retention on JM contract is where things got derailed, and ended the deal from going forward and whether or not Markstrom would be asked to waive, which could also end things in a hurry should he deny doing so to move to the NJ area.

So its a long way from being done and in no way does it include both Mercer and Holtz plus more. That seems like a pipe dream at best, though it makes for interesting discussion fodder.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Yeah, I only see one of Holtz or Mercer coming over, not both.

[browntrout]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yeah. That’s what I am struggling with on these rumours. Holtz + a 2nd/1st would be a good return. Mercer + Casey + a 1st than New Jersey better winning up a cup lol. I just really don’t think Markstrom is that guy. Vanacek won’t be expensive to dump in the summer either.

I think this hold up is with New Jersey, I can see Conroy willing to be flexible on the return, but when you ask a team to retain almost half of the goaltenders salary for the next 2.5 years, that is a significant roadblock. I can't see new jersey giving up mercer/Holtz and a first for a 34 year old goaltender, that is just alot to swallow.

New Jersey has the cap space to swallow markstrom's salary for the next 2 years, in some ways I don't fully understand why a first round pick(lottery protected) straight up for markstrom with no salary, does not get this deal, Calgary clears the way for wolf and gets a high pick, seems like both sides get what they need.

[Flames1217]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

I think the cost to retain 6+ million actual dollars and accept a contract in return is a huge ask by the Devils and easily is worth a 1st+ by itself

I value Mercer quite highly.

He is currently fourth in his entire draft class for points and third for goals. He is also defensively responsible and can play both centre and wing. I think that his value is certainly high enough to make this deal plausible.

We are getting a 22 year old who is arguably already a solid top 6 player, I don't know how much more we can expect for a 34 year old goalie, albeit a very solid/borderline elite goalie.

[browntrout]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just to clarify....between what it is I heard yesterday and reading between the lines on other reports is.....

The package agreed too by Calgary included Holtz as the only roster player along with other assets (pick/prospect? no idea) that were enough for Conroy to part ways. Mercer not included at any point. Also, Vanacek NOT part of the return.

The amount/value of retention on JM contract is where things got derailed, and ended the deal from going forward and whether or not Markstrom would be asked to waive, which could also end things in a hurry should he deny doing so to move to the NJ area.

So its a long way from being done and in no way does it include both Mercer and Holtz plus more. That seems like a pipe dream at best, though it makes for interesting discussion fodder.

Yeah just seems odd at this point, is Conroy trying to fleece new jersey?, maybe markstrom declined to go there?

All I know is for a rebuild, if you are getting either mercer/Holtz or a first round pick, why would you not pull the trigger, even at this point retaining some money does not hinder Calgary in the short term

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Just to clarify....between what it is I heard yesterday and reading between the lines on other reports is.....

The package agreed too by Calgary included Holtz as the only roster player along with other assets (pick/prospect? no idea) that were enough for Conroy to part ways. Mercer not included at any point. Also, Vanacek NOT part of the return.

The amount/value of retention on JM contract is where things got derailed, and ended the deal from going forward and whether or not Markstrom would be asked to waive, which could also end things in a hurry should he deny doing so to move to the NJ area.

So its a long way from being done and in no way does it include both Mercer and Holtz plus more. That seems like a pipe dream at best, though it makes for interesting discussion fodder.

This, to me, makes a lot of sense.

[Flamesfan05]

Goalies are up and down including Markstrom

I don’t see any upside in keeping him if the offer was Holtz +

It’s not like Markstrom can make them a contender after the sell off

The retention is also weird, you are going to have to spend that money whether he stays or goes

[Enoch Root]

Trading Markstrom straight-up, for a 1st is a terrible idea, and there is no reason for Conroy to do it.

Are the returns that are being discussed crazy-high for a goalie, based on historical trades? Yes. But you have to keep context in mind, when looking at returns.

1) NJD is literally the perfect candidate for a goalie - they have a stacked young team that can't get over the hump because of goaltending woes
2) On top of that, they have an ownership group that wants to win NOW
3) Markstrom is playing at a level that, in normal circumstances, teams simply don't trade guys away. It is too hard to acquire another one (remember, we haven't had goaltending like this since Kipper)
4) The cap has never been tighter, due to Covid. Markstrom has 2.5 years left on his contract, which is absolutely perfect for an acquiring team like the Devils, and retention for that long is HUGELY valuable. Retaining 50% of Markstrom's contract is worth more than what we paid for Monahan's (more dollars, and longer term)
5) Not only is cap space more valuable right now than it has ever been (and may ever be), but the Flames are in a position to take advantage of it
6) The Devils have a unique abundance of prospects and young players, due to their lengthy and fruitful rebuild (which they are desperate to climb out of)

This isn't simply a case of: what is Markstrom worth? It is a case of what is Markstrom worth TO THE Devils, and also, what is retention worth to them? The combination of those two things makes the return significant, and look out of whack if you don't properly consider the context from all of these factors.

The Devils are going to make a big trade for a goalie, and the return is going to be fantastic. I just hope that it is for Markstrom, and not for Saros, because there are no other buyers out there who are so perfectly aligned for the Flames.

Also, some of you are absolutely terrible negotiators: "I would take X and run!" No, you have to maximize value at all times - especially in a cap world.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

That might be more of a reason NOT to get him, looking at BOS’s POV. I think the Lightning will eventually cave and offer a decent haul.

A team like Boston is not going to ask Hanifin to be a PP1 master, and they’re also not going to overreact to some kid having a 3-point night.

If anything, they juiced his ice time and stats a bit to appeal to the Flames.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

A team like Boston is not going to ask Hanifin to be a PP1 master, and they’re also not going to overreact to some kid having a 3-point night.

If anything, they juiced his ice time and stats a bit to appeal to the Flames.

His ice time was out of necessity.

Grzelcyk played 1 shift before leaving with injury and not returning.

Also magnifying that was Derek Forbort playing almost 22 minutes...when he averages 17.5 and thats when he actually dresses.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Goalies are up and down including Markstrom

I don’t see any upside in keeping him if the offer was Holtz +

It’s not like Markstrom can make them a contender after the sell off

The retention is also weird, you are going to have to spend that money whether he stays or goes

But there is a value to retaining. It has been established that the value is high - particularly when it is multi-years.
You think they should just give that away because they are going to "have to spend that money anyways"?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Goalies are up and down including Markstrom

I don’t see any upside in keeping him if the offer was Holtz +

It’s not like Markstrom can make them a contender after the sell off

The retention is also weird, you are going to have to spend that money whether he stays or goes

Well retention has value for whatever team has the retention. This was true when Montreal did the equivalent on Monahan, it did when Carolina did the equivalent of retention on Marleau and it should with Markstrom. Montreal was going to spend that money anyway being a team that traditionally spends to the cap why did they need a first thrown in? If Conroy thinks he can get more he should try to get more.

[Ashasx]

me listening to Fan 960 Hanifin, Tanev, and Markstrom trade proposals this morning

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Also, some of you are absolutely terrible negotiators: "I would take X and run!" No, you have to maximize value at all times - especially in a cap world.

The flip side is that you can't be so aggressive on your ask that you miss a good deal. Holtz + picks (especially if it is a 1st) + prospects is a historically strong return. So value is already maximized on Markstrom.

Sounds like the hang up is over retention and this one is a little grey but the cap crunch is alleviating somewhat this summer but I don't think it is as simple as Monahan cost a 1st to dump so the Devils have to pay equivalent.

I don't think any team will pay more in the summer when they lose Markstrom for a playoff run and more options open up. The balance of maximizing value for the player and cap space has to be balanced against realistic returns if New Jersey goes and trades for Saros.

Are the Flames in a better spot in their current state with Holtz + a 1st/2nd or Markstrom? I am taking the return for Markstrom.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

me listening to Fan 960 Hanifin, Tanev, and Markstrom trade proposals this morning

lol what were they

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The Devils are going to make a big trade for a goalie, and the return is going to be fantastic. I just hope that it is for Markstrom, and not for Saros, because there are no other buyers out there who are so perfectly aligned for the Flames.

Also, some of you are absolutely terrible negotiators: "I would take X and run!" No, you have to maximize value at all times - especially in a cap world.

Nobody is talking about them but I wonder if Carolina is a dark horse. They have the pieces to make the trade and they have the cap that they could move out. Calgary could absorb a lot of cap coming back.

Carolina currently has 28.2 million in cap space (with Andersen on the roster) and has to sign Necas, Drury, Jarvis, Terravainan and Skjei (along with 8 other players) with that cap. Markstrom at 3 million a year is right in their wheelhouse for cost for a goalie. I suspect they don’t want to trade Nikishin but I would propose the following

Markstrom 50% retained

Nikishin
Kotkaniemi
Andersen
Nadeau
2024 2nd

End result for Carolina would be that they would have 33.4 million to spend in the offseason to make their team better and retain current players (they would save 5.2 million in cap space next year) but would have a starting goalie who can stay healthy for this years playoff run and two more after that. The Flames have the ability to absorb that much salary and take a flier on a center and get a stud dman and offensive forward back.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Bonded

The flip side is that you can't be so aggressive on your ask that you miss a good deal. Holtz + picks (especially if it is a 1st) + prospects is a historically strong return. So value is already maximized on Markstrom.

Sounds like the hang up is over retention and this one is a little grey but the cap crunch is alleviating somewhat this summer but I don't think it is as simple as Monahan cost a 1st to dump so the Devils have to pay equivalent.

I don't think any team will pay more in the summer when they lose Markstrom for a playoff run and more options open up. The balance of maximizing value for the player and cap space has to be balanced against realistic returns if New Jersey goes and trades for Saros.

Are the Flames in a better spot in their current state with Holtz + a 1st/2nd or Markstrom? I am taking the return for Markstrom.

The only team missing out on the opportunity is the buyer for this years playoffs. Flames can move him in the summer where the salary is much easier to maneuver, or next deadline… the regression fears are silly in my opinion, Markstrom has one blip season on his career and it was when he had his first kid and the team was in turmoil internally. Flames can move him next year if someone doesn’t want to pony up. Their loss, not ours.