Edmonton is No Good XI: Mud, Sweatpants and Tiers

[topfiverecords]

Always nice to be reminded of the Oilers and Leafs losing in the playoffs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess the question we need to ask is, "Does regular season record against top ten teams have any kind of significance come playoff time?".

I just did a quick look at the finalists from last season.

Oilers went 3-1 vs Vegas in the reg season.
Panthers went 1-3 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Carolina.
You know which teams won these series.

Vegas was 10W-14L against top ten teams during the 22/23 regular season.
Florida was 8W-19L.

Last year showed zero correlation between regular season Win % vs top ten teams and playoff success for the finalists.

There is no real smoking gun stat for predicting playoff success.
Points % and Expected Goals For % are currently the most accurate, but far from being a slam dunk.

Corsi used to be the best predictor, but has fallen off consistently since it became a main focus of conversation.

I got the data from this article:
https://chacemccallum.substack.com/p...s%20been%20xG.

I think in general its best to use the largest sample sizes possible, and breaking the regular season results into smaller segments is going to do more harm than good.

The Oilers have proven they can't beat the top dogs though year after year in the playoffs

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess the question we need to ask is, "Does regular season record against top ten teams have any kind of significance come playoff time?".

I just did a quick look at the finalists from last season.

Oilers went 3-1 vs Vegas in the reg season.
Panthers went 1-3 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Carolina.
You know which teams won these series.

Vegas was 10W-14L against top ten teams during the 22/23 regular season.
Florida was 8W-19L.

Last year showed zero correlation between regular season Win % vs top ten teams and playoff success for the finalists.

Those numbers are too incomplete to be worth anything.

What was the average record of those top 10 teams? A long way above .500, which means most teams had losing records against them.

How did the other playoff teams do against the top 10?

You haven't done a correlation. You've looked up a couple of data points and then presented them as if they were conclusions.

[Radio]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

I guess the question we need to ask is, "Does regular season record against top ten teams have any kind of significance come playoff time?".

I just did a quick look at the finalists from last season.

Oilers went 3-1 vs Vegas in the reg season.
Panthers went 1-3 vs Toronto and 1-2 vs Carolina.
You know which teams won these series.

Vegas was 10W-14L against top ten teams during the 22/23 regular season.
Florida was 8W-19L.

Last year showed zero correlation between regular season Win % vs top ten teams and playoff success for the finalists.

There is no real smoking gun stat for predicting playoff success.
Points % and Expected Goals For % are currently the most accurate, but far from being a slam dunk.

Corsi used to be the best predictor, but has fallen off consistently since it became a main focus of conversation.

I got the data from this article:
https://chacemccallum.substack.com/p...s%20been%20xG.

I think in general its best to use the largest sample sizes possible, and breaking the regular season results into smaller segments is going to do more harm than good.

I have run your stats through my TI35 and see where you have gone wrong. You've neglected the universal constant of E=NG. Therefore, whether a winning record or losing record they are just No Good. It's even worse when you try the inverse of NG. You don't get the expected G, you actually get B=NFG (Bumonton = No ####ing Good).

[カナダ人です]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

Oilers record vs Top 10 by p% in 2023-24: 4-9-1
Canucks record vs Top 10 by p% in 2023-24: 9-3-2

Flames actually have a better record vs these teams than the Oilers at 8-9-0. The increased games caused by the fact they see both the Canucks and Oilers.

Long story is, as a Canucks fan, I'm fine with top ten teams. More of those, please.

Does this include the Canucks' 3 wins vs Edmonton? The oilers are currently in the top 10 by p%, but were hot garbage when Vancouver played them early in the season.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by カナダ人です

Does this include the Canucks' 3 wins vs Edmonton? The oilers are currently in the top 10 by p%, but were hot garbage when Vancouver played them early in the season.

So your argument is that the Canucks and Oilers would be closer together if you took out the head-to-head that the Canucks smoked the Oilers in?

Seems bold, but okay...

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Blaster86

So your argument is that the Canucks and Oilers would be closer together if you took out the head-to-head that the Canucks smoked the Oilers in?

Seems bold, but okay...

I think this person is suggesting the Canucks' record against top ten teams is somewhat inflated by the fact they played Dumpsville, who is currently a top ten team by points percentage, when they were playing like one of the worst teams in the league.

If you simply removed those 3 games, the Canucks would be 6-3-2 vs. top ten teams, which is still pretty good.

I hate them both, but I hate Dumpsville more.

[Blaster86]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

when they were playing like one of the worst teams in the league.

I like to look at it as the #### kickings in games one and two set the table for them to mentally unravel. The Canucks being so much better than the oil-well fire that is the Edmonton Oilers is why that fire burnt for three months.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

Always nice to be reminded of the Oilers and Leafs losing in the playoffs.

Looking forward to adding to those memories <3

[TheIronMaiden]

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Oiler fans minds are... interesting.

They know exactly how their season will end.

In case they need clarification: At the hands of a better and deeper team.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Nm

[Bingo]

Edmonton drive thru ...

this is nuts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1757984692618326264

[GioforPM]

^^ IMO an attempted scam they tried to brazen through.

[Paulie Walnuts]

He was missing 3 0's on his Instagram account.

[Dude Where's Makar?]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Edmonton drive thru ...

this is nuts

https://twitter.com/user/status/1757984692618326264

this makes me sick

[Reggie Dunlop]

"This isn't Celebrity McDonalds"

Is now.

[Bill Bumface]

"This is going to go viral" - yup, but not for the reason you think. Also, nice high school football championship ring, way to hang onto that for 30 years.

[trackercowe]

Losers... I hope they lose their jobs.

[trackercowe]

Good news, the woman in the video was fired from her job. Racist and entitled. A dual threat!