[Signing] Willian Nylander extension (8 Years, $11.5M AAV)

[Saqe]

Funny how last year people were thinking he should get something like 9 million per at most. Contract year and surprise surprise he's having a career year, and now gets paid based on it. Just like Treliving did with Huberdeau. Paying based on an anomaly. Nylander will now be extremely comfortable and probably fall back to his career average.

[SuperMatt18]

Paying full value for that one for sure.

I wonder what it would have cost to sign him prior to this year in the offseason...discussions around the time were around $9.5M.

So he bet on himself and earned an extra $10-$16M probably.

Treliving seems to have horrible luck of guys overperforming when they bet on themselves in contract seasons, but then he always wants to overpay them too.

Huberdeau, Gaudreau, and now Nylander were all guys that were more 80-90 point guys, that put up 110+ points in the contract year, and got paid as consistent 100+ point guys.

[pseudoreality]

Best Case Scenario - Nylander stays a top 5 point producer for the majority of the contract and the cap grows significantly

Moderate Case Scenario - Nylander reverts to the mean as a top 20 point producer and the cap sees moderate growth

Worst Case Scenario - Nylander's production falls off of a cliff (see Huberdeau) and the cap flatlines

Which one is most likely? I would say the moderate case scenario. It is unlikely this will be a good deal for the Leafs. However, they are in a win-now mode. If they win a cup in the next few years no one will care. I'm not saying they will win, but I think that is the mindset. Go all in while you have these players at their peak. The Leafs have never made the finals since the league expanded beyond six teams 56 years ago. If this is their shot, they have to take it and screw long-term cap/asset management.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

https://twitter.com/user/status/1744402428525531198

That's brutal. The massive signing bonus likely means the contract can't be bought out....plus a full NMC/MTC to age 36? Feels like after getting paid those kind of dollars in an anomaly contract year, you could avoid the franchise destroying extra benefits.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Funny how last year people were thinking he should get something like 9 million per at most. Contract year and surprise surprise he's having a career year, and now gets paid based on it. Just like Treliving did with Huberdeau. Paying based on an anomaly. Nylander will now be extremely comfortable and probably fall back to his career average.

80 points two years ago
87 last year
On pace for 119 this year.
PPG over his last four playoffs.

The dude is arguably their second best player.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Matthew 13.5 and Nylander 11.5 the two contracts Treliving has signed in Toronto.

Also brought in Domi, Bertuzzi and Klingberg while leaving the goalie situation a mess.

I don't think Treliving lasts more than 3 years in Toronto.

You think Matthews' and Nylander's numbers aren't fair, or that he had any choice but to give them those contracts?

Domi, Bertuzzi and Klingberg are all one year deals so he gave himself a reset after they get bounced in the first round.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

80 points two years ago
87 last year
On pace for 119 this year.
PPG over his last four playoffs.

The dude is arguably their second best player.

Man, I dont think the money is the problem...its the structure.

Anything happens to Nylander's production and the team has ZERO options.

Its the same as Calgary with Huberdeau.

That production falls off a cliff and you're stuck with him.

Hm. Odd. Considering the architect of the contracts happens to be the same idiot.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

80 points two years ago
87 last year
On pace for 119 this year.
PPG over his last four playoffs.

The dude is arguably their second best player.

Thing is even with what you just said he should probably be worth at most $10-10.5M.

7 forwards in the NHL make over $11M - Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Pastrnak, Panarin, Tavares and now Nylander.

He's not in the range of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, or Pastrnak...and the other two were overpayments to get a guy in UFA.

Nobody else could give Nylander anything close to $92M - which is a $13M AAV on a 7 year contract. Treliving really isn't taking advantage of the benefit of the 8th year in these negotiations IMO. Really feels like this contract should have been at most the same as Huberdeau and around $10.5M. But he's getting an extra $1M.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

80 points two years ago
87 last year
On pace for 119 this year.
PPG over his last four playoffs.

The dude is arguably their second best player.

He's very good but it's still he's getting paid based on a career year. If he keeps this up then it's fine. I doubt it.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Thing is even with what you just said he should probably be worth at most $10-10.5M.

7 forwards in the NHL make over $11M - Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Pastrnak, Panarin, Tavares and now Nylander.

He's not in the range of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, or Pastrnak...and the other two were overpayments to get a guy in UFA.

So it’s a $1M overpay. It keeps him in the situation he’s been in his whole career, with a bunch of elite players he’s very comfortable with.

Is he still gonna be good for most of that deal? Probably, it only takes him to 33.

The cap is going to be $100M in a few years.

Locking up Matthews, now Nylander, and I’m assuming eventually Marner will keep their window open throughout.

Bring back Tavares on a reduced salary, or use his money on a big ticket goalie, and take your shot.

[butterfly]

He will be 28 when this kicks in so he will be 36 when it expires.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

You think Matthews' and Nylander's numbers aren't fair, or that he had any choice but to give them those contracts?

Domi, Bertuzzi and Klingberg are all one year deals so he gave himself a reset after they get bounced in the first round.

Ryan Reaves though

3 years, yikes

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So it’s a $1M overpay. It keeps him in the situation he’s been in his whole career, with a bunch of elite players he’s very comfortable with.

Is he still gonna be good for most of that deal? Probably, it only takes him to 33.

The cap is going to be $100M in a few years.

Locking up Matthews, now Nylander, and I’m assuming eventually Marner will keep their window open throughout.

Bring back Tavares on a reduced salary, or use his money on a big ticket goalie, and take your shot.

I think it does create a trickle effect for them though.

I doubt Marner will want to take anything less than $12.5M when he gets renewed now.

With a $100M cap they might be able to make it work - but it's going to probably be $37-38M for those 3 forwards.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Thing is even with what you just said he should probably be worth at most $10-10.5M.

7 forwards in the NHL make over $11M - Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, Pastrnak, Panarin, Tavares and now Nylander.

He's not in the range of Matthews, Mackinnon, McDavid, or Pastrnak...and the other two were overpayments to get a guy in UFA.

Nobody else could give Nylander anything close to $92M - which is a $13M AAV on a 7 year contract. Treliving really isn't taking advantage of the benefit of the 8th year in these negotiations IMO. Really feels like this contract should have been at most the same as Huberdeau and around $10.5M. But he's getting an extra $1M.

Truth is there are very few elite players who can carry a team solely when it’s most needed. I’d argue there are probably a handful of those elite guys in the league - Sid, McDavid, MacKinnon, Makar, and maybe Kucherov. The rest are either not consistent or play within a deep team to allow them to rack up big points. Those select few would do it by themselves. So Tre is signing a non elite guy to a contract but it’s not an elite contract at today’s current rate. But it still may work out. The structure is a huge problem though from a risk mitigation standpoint. That’s on the GM.

I have to wonder if Tre is up to his old practices of working in isolation. Brandon Pridham is well respected and can be consulted on the cap but I wonder if Tre is driving the ship to try and make it work.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

So it’s a $1M overpay. It keeps him in the situation he’s been in his whole career, with a bunch of elite players he’s very comfortable with.

Is he still gonna be good for most of that deal? Probably, it only takes him to 33.

The cap is going to be $100M in a few years.

Locking up Matthews, now Nylander, and I’m assuming eventually Marner will keep their window open throughout.

Bring back Tavares on a reduced salary, or use his money on a big ticket goalie, and take your shot.

Um, about that defense?

[1qqaaz]

What did Nylander do to deserve more money than Pastrnak?

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think it does create a trickle effect for them though.

I doubt Marner will want to take anything less than $12.5M when he gets renewed now.

With a $100M cap they might be able to make it work - but it's going to probably be $37-38M for those 3 forwards.

Marner is more talented but his work effort consistently is a question. Plus he gets flustered when leaned on. I don’t think he’ll be asking for more. He’s more or less Nylander with a different skill set.

[bluejays]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

What did Nylander do to deserve more money than Pastrnak?

To me he’s similar to Pastrnak. But he signed at a different time. Not totally comparable.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Saqe

Funny how last year people were thinking he should get something like 9 million per at most. Contract year and surprise surprise he's having a career year, and now gets paid based on it. Just like Treliving did with Huberdeau. Paying based on an anomaly. Nylander will now be extremely comfortable and probably fall back to his career average.

When we were proposing trades for him last year and in the summer posters didn't want to give him nine, or even try to acquire him because "soft" or something.

Now the Leafs give him 11.5 and it's a "solid signing"

Honestly I don't think it's bad by itself but I don't see how the Leafs put together a cup winning back end now.

12 regulation wins in 37 games...they are not a threat in the playoffs...they are not even good other than 3 on 3 and the shootout

[Jacks]

Completely buyout proof and unmovable. Treliving really sucks these days but I'm glad he's wrecking the Leafs now instead of crippling us further.