What to do with Huberdeau?

[dino7c]

Huberdeau was turning it around a few games ago, that is why you actually watch the games not just look at stats.

there was ridicule for complementing good plays that didn't turn into points but you could see it coming. That is why you don't press box players because they are playing below their contract value or historical averages.

[Hackey]

The Flames should consider giving you an upper management position.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only 3 good games in a row but so far the keep or add minutes and give him more opportunities strategy seems to be working.

Not sure why people hate him. He is going to be here a long time. May as well find a way to get the most out of him.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Bingo

They are unlikely to pass four teams and play at a 102 point pace the rest of the way, yes.

They are more likely to be a worse team without their top pairing and top center.

If they didn't trade said players I would agree with you 100%. Assuming they do, though, not sure how anyone could suggest they won't be worse off with three of their best say 8 players gone.

The deadline is more than two months out. If the Flames continue to play like they have the last 15 games or so between now and then, there’s a good chance they’ll be in a playoff spot Mar 8.

And teams don’t always crap the bed when they move veterans at the deadline. Rookies and press box guys coming in and playing with their hair on fire can give a team a short-term boost. Last season the Preds went 12-9-2 after trading away Tanner Jeannot, Nino Niederreiter, Mattias Ekholm and Mikael Granlund. Saros called it “the #### you tour.”

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

its a little different caliber but...as I predicted the Flames record is no worse without Zadorov, in fact its better

A little different?

It's night and day.

Removing two top four defenseman in impact vs one bottom pairing defenseman isn't the same stratosphere.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If we're lucky, they crap the bed after the trade deadline. I really hope they're not picking in the double digits this year. Top 5 seems unlikely, but would be exciting.

I would guess they'll have the 6-8th best lottery odds when the dust settles on the season.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

have you seen the Flames schedule

18th most difficult.

Minnesota, Edmonton, Seattle, and LA all have easier schedules. Nashville very similar.

The only team they're trying to reel in with a significantly tougher schedule is Arizona.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I would guess they'll have the 6-8th best lottery odds when the dust settles on the season.

So negative…

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Bingo

They are unlikely to pass four teams and play at a 102 point pace the rest of the way, yes.

They are more likely to be a worse team without their top pairing and top center.

If they didn't trade said players I would agree with you 100%. Assuming they do, though, not sure how anyone could suggest they won't be worse off with three of their best say 8 players gone.

They could fall to the 5th in a complete collapse scenario. Falling down to bottom 3 is basically impossible at this point. Even if the Flames lost their last 10 games and got 0 points - this how many points these teams would have made up:
Ottawa 6
Anaheim 7
Chicago 5
San Jose 2

You'd have to turn into San Jose to have any of the non San Jose teams catch up.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

So negative…

Kind of where they are isn't it?

Being objective to the good and bad is rarely negative, though I admit no one person owns the lens to say where realistic is.

If you have a tendency to lean hard into one side or the other there may be some motive.

In a week where I've been at it with Spurs and Dino might be a good indication that I've found the right spot!

[Calgary4LIfe]

Flames currently sit tied with Montreal for 8th worst in the NHL with 37 points.


Below them are Minnesota (36 pts), Buffalo (34), Columbus (32) and Ottawa (28). Ottawa seems out of reach, but somehow they still have 5 games in hand on the Flames. What makes this grouping interesting is that you can call them all "finished rebuilds" - teams that are trying to get out of the basement. Flames are competitive with this tier of teams. How many of these teams - all very close in standings - are going to be selling their #1 centre, two of their top 4 defencemen, and also possibly more players if offers present themselves? Those teams have basically all sold their old core, built a new core, and are trying to complement them now. Sure, they might sell some peripheral players that they may not re-sign, but for the most part, they are in the 'building back up' stage, not the 'tearing it down' stage.



I doubt that Anaheim has it in them to go on a run and catch the Flames, and they are likely to finish above Chicago and San Jose. The way I see it at the draft (ignoring the lottery) is:


1st overall - battle between Chicago and San Jose
3rd overall - Anaheim
4th overall - Flames
5th overall - ??



Those are the 'tiers' at this point. A prolonged losing streak or winning streak can definitely change things, but I would feel comfortable in assuming that by the end of the season, this is more or less what we see. Only the current bottom 3 teams are 'out of reach', and the rest are all trying to build up and give their fanbases some optimism for next season. There is only so many high picks you can draft before your fanbase grows impatient, and these teams need to appease their fans and sell tickets for next season. They aren't as interested in once again drafting a high pick as much as they are in showing their fanbase that they have taken a step to try and increase excitement for next season.


That's why I have those teams passing the Flames. They are close right now, plus they are the only team in that area that are going to become worse. Tanev + Hanifin out is a whole lot more turnovers. If any of the Markstrom rumours end up in fruition, then we can start having conversations about catching Anaheim - still doubt it, but no defence and no clear starter should equal falling off a cliff.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by dino7c

its a little different caliber but...as I predicted the Flames record is no worse without Zadorov, in fact its better

1) Flames were horrific for the 1st 10 games of the season

2) Markstrom has seriously elevated his game in the last while

Claiming to be 'right', based on small sample sizes, where literally ANYTHING could be concluded from them, does not score you any points.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Only 3 good games in a row but so far the keep or add minutes and give him more opportunities strategy seems to be working.

Originally Posted by dino7c

Huberdeau was turning it around a few games ago, that is why you actually watch the games not just look at stats.

there was ridicule for complementing good plays that didn't turn into points but you could see it coming. That is why you don't press box players because they are playing below their contract value or historical averages.

TBH the underlying stats had shown it too, the puck just wasn't going in the net.

He had been generating chances for much of that 12 game pointless streak, puck just went in the last two games for him.

His team rank over those 14 games:

Corsi %: 55.6% (1st)
Scoring Chances %: 55.1% (1st)
High Danger %: 54.3% (3rd)
Expected Goals %: 53.7% (3rd)

Scoring Chances For: 103 (1st)
High Danger For: 44 (1st)
Expected Goals For: 9.38 (1st)

Hopefully he keeps it up but he's been creating chances on the ice at 5v5 for pretty much the entire 12 game pointless streak and the last 2 games now where he has points.

He's paid for production so the puck has to go in, but even during the pointless streak there were signs the offensive play was coming.

[GioforPM]

Frankly, I didn't want to overdo the "good games in a row" thing, though I agree, he's not been a bad player on the ice. I was just going by consensus opinion here on his play.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

18th most difficult.

Minnesota, Edmonton, Seattle, and LA all have easier schedules. Nashville very similar.

The only team they're trying to reel in with a significantly tougher schedule is Arizona.

I don't buy it

Flames haven't played SJ or Chicago yet

Those lists rank decent bubble teams the same as absolute bottom feeders

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

1) Flames were horrific for the 1st 10 games of the season

2) Markstrom has seriously elevated his game in the last while

Claiming to be 'right', based on small sample sizes, where literally ANYTHING could be concluded from them, does not score you any points.

Yeah yeah

Except there isn't much of an argument that says the Flames miss Zadorov either

They have a better record, Gilbert has stepped up... Zadorov was trying to do too much IMO

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dino7c

I don't buy it

Flames haven't played SJ or Chicago yet

Those lists rank decent bubble teams the same as absolute bottom feeders

Just checked another site ..

Edmonton, Minnesota, Seattle and LA all easier schedules.

Maybe they've put more thought into this than you?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

TBH the underlying stats had shown it too, the puck just wasn't going in the net.

He had been generating chances for much of that 12 game pointless streak, puck just went in the last two games for him.

His team rank over those 14 games:

Corsi %: 55.6% (1st)
Scoring Chances %: 55.1% (1st)
High Danger %: 54.3% (3rd)
Expected Goals %: 53.7% (3rd)

Scoring Chances For: 103 (1st)
High Danger For: 44 (1st)
Expected Goals For: 9.38 (1st)

Hopefully he keeps it up but he's been creating chances on the ice at 5v5 for pretty much the entire 12 game pointless streak and the last 2 games now where he has points.

He's paid for production so the puck has to go in, but even during the pointless streak there were signs the offensive play was coming.

Kind of like how Kadri's start to the season went, no?

Strong play without much in the way of results - but then things started to click.

I'm still a Huberdeau fan. The fact that he's just putting in the work and keeping his head down (not that there's much else to do), I hope it starts to click. Would like to see him and Shaggy develop some team-impacting chemistry as things go forward.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He's paid for production so the puck has to go in, but even during the pointless streak there were signs the offensive play was coming.

And that's a totally reasonable expectation, but that's also the difficult thing when evaluating this specific player and his circumstances here though. Jonathan Huberdeau more so than probably any other "star" player in this league almost exclusively relies on his playmaking abilities to produce.. whether or not his teammates finish those opportunities really isn't on him. He has an uncanny ability of finding passing lanes that most players quite frankly don't even recognize. I see ton's of criticism's that he's not a Nathan Mackinnon type "play driver" but he never has been and anyone who had ever watched him knew that. Does that make him more of a complimentary piece in the most simple sense? Sure, but a playmaker needs finishing talent. That much is known. No forward on this team is on the ice for more scoring chances for per 60 than Huberdeau is. That says something.

Jonathan Huberdeau's oiSH% in all situations is a measly 7.47% which for a guy that plays consistently on the PP is absurdly low. This ranks him 195th out of 210 forwards in the NHL who have played 500 minutes or more, and the majority of those below him don't see PP time. The game's top end producers for example are typically in the 14-16% range and that's where he was as a player prior to coming here. For context JT Miller has an oiSH% of 16.75%. That points to an overall team issue to me. Beniers, Cozens, and Dubois are some other guys who are also "heavily underperforming" and fall into that same oiSH% range. Bad puck luck and overall poor team finish are absolutely key factors in Huberdeau's so called struggles.

I posted similar numbers earlier in this thread and was hit with the "and that's why advanced stats are useless" comments, but they very clearly paint the picture of a player who is contributing to and creating offensive opportunities at a high rate relative to his teammates. The onus is now on Conroy to add to the top end skill level and finishing abilities of this club. Once that occurs' we may start seeing what Huberdeau is truly capable of from a production standpoint. Maybe that starts with a very early first round draft selection this year, and some more "seasoning" for Coronato.

Also put him back on the top PP unit for god sakes. Use Zary down low in the Tkachuk style role, with Huberdeau/Sharangovich on the half walls and one of Kadri/Lindholm in the bumper. The key for me is having those half wall options stay in motion at all times.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Just checked another site ..

Edmonton, Minnesota, Seattle and LA all easier schedules.

Maybe they've put more thought into this than you?

Like I said, they rank Chicago and San Jose the same as actual hockey teams that win the odd game

Edmonton has played SJ and Chicago 5 times already


Not suggesting it's guaranteed wins but come on now...Flames December schedule was harder than anything those team will deal with and they were over .500