[PGT] Flames 3 - Disney 0

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Regarding Huberdeau passing on that play...

He already had what - 7 shots in the game? Or was it 10? He was shooting from everywhere. He had a chance to make a play and he took it, unfortunately, Ruzicka couldn't handle the pass. As someone said in the GT, if that was Sharangovich, it's probably a goal and we're all praising the play.

But some of you are so insistent on trashing everything he does, that you can't look objectively at him at all.

Huberdeau had a good game last night, and if he keeps playing like that, he'll break out of his current funk.

He had a good game and was shooting, but that is a shot you have to take. He had all net.

I am also not a person who harps on every play that doesn't work for him, but that was a bad play.

He had jump last night.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by The Fisher Account

He had 15 mins of ice time. No goals. No assists. 6 shots.

I mean, for $10.5M, I wouldn't say that's necessarily a good game. But the apologists are gonna apologize one way or another I guess.

Meh, I'm not sure why people focus on the fact that he makes $10.5M and makes bad passes. That game last night, he and others could've had goals but the opposition goalie came up with great saves - period. Hubey did have a really great game - period. Who cares if he scored or not. A lot of the other Flames forwards and d-men didn't score as well and they won - each period.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by CSharp

Meh, I'm not sure why people focus on the fact that he makes $10.5M and makes bad passes. That game last night, he and others could've had goals but the opposition goalie came up with great saves - period. Hubey did have a really great game - period. Who cares if he scored or not. A lot of the other Flames forwards and d-men didn't score as well and they won - each period.

It also creates momentum for your team when everyone is playing well and most of the time someone will score.

[Wastedyouth]

I thought last night was Huberdeaus best game this year.

Any yet, he still isn't producing.

That is terrifying.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Walker Deuhr looked amazing last year. I remember when Tim Jackman scored 10 on the 4th line. Selling high on a 4th line guy playing on a heater is exactly what the Flames should do. Let’s not make the Lance Bouma mistake all over again

The mistake would be signing him to a somewhat expensive extension in my mind.

If they like the player and think they can bring him back in the same salary neighborhood that fear dissipates.

Then it's value to move him and not have him, which is a much lesser scare than signing him to too rich a contract.

Player that went through waivers probably doesn't have all that much value ... 6th round pick?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I thought last night was Huberdeaus best game this year.

Any yet, he still isn't producing.

That is terrifying.

Nah, to me playing well is always a good sign, points or no.

[Bingo]

Apologist Alert!

But seriously no one is going to make his festering turd of a season look better by spin, but there are some interesting numbers to suggest he's due for a pretty good run.

If you look at goals scored at all strengths vs expected goals scored at any strength it's a pretty huge gap for the player.

Goals over Expected
1. Zary +6.34
2. Weegar +3.06
3. Tanev +2.77

The rest of the team is negative.

The bottom
18. Huberdeau -14.62
17. Kadri -7.75
16. Backlund -5.42
15. Lindholm -4.37

Huberdeau's number is off the charts. Imagine if he was on the ice for 15 more goals and had 10 more points ... It wouldn't be a 115 point season, but he'd be tracking for 60-65 points and it would feel like a step in the right direction.

I've never seen an expected variance that big and we're only 1/3 of the way into the season.

[GioforPM]

He's had bad luck, made some bad plays and had some teammates flub chances. It's been a nightmare for sure, but when guys are playing well without results, I think that as long as they keep it going, they will get some breakthoughs. He had a pretty decent games 10-20 or so IIRC.

[Bingo]

Looking at the other side of the puck ...

Goals against vs Expected (ranked as favourable)
1. Pospisil +3.52
2. Tanev +3.27 (have a feeling he's a factor in that)
3. Coleman +2.83
4. Hanifin +2.35

18. Sharangovich -10.42
17. Huberdeau -6.89 (unlucky on both sides of the puck)
16. Kadri -6.76
15. Weegar -4.31

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Wastedyouth

I thought last night was Huberdeaus best game this year.

Any yet, he still isn't producing.

That is terrifying.

honestly he was unlucky not to get any points last night...keep playing like that and it will happen.

Kadri was playing well with 1 assist on the season for a while

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Apologist Alert!

But seriously no one is going to make his festering turd of a season look better by spin, but there are some interesting numbers to suggest he's due for a pretty good run.

If you look at goals scored at all strengths vs expected goals scored at any strength it's a pretty huge gap for the player.

Goals over Expected
1. Zary +6.34
2. Weegar +3.06
3. Tanev +2.77

The rest of the team is negative.

The bottom
18. Huberdeau -14.62
17. Kadri -7.75
16. Backlund -5.42
15. Lindholm -4.37

Huberdeau's number is off the charts. Imagine if he was on the ice for 15 more goals and had 10 more points ... It wouldn't be a 115 point season, but he'd be tracking for 60-65 points and it would feel like a step in the right direction.

I've never seen an expected variance that big and we're only 1/3 of the way into the season.

It's actually unreal at this point.

Whenever there is a high quality chance with him on the ice it's never finished.

He needs to be better, but man he's been super unlucky too.

[CSharp]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Looking at the other side of the puck ...

Goals against vs Expected (ranked as favourable)
1. Pospisil +3.52
2. Tanev +3.27 (have a feeling he's a factor in that)
3. Coleman +2.83
4. Hanifin +2.35

18. Sharangovich -10.42
17. Huberdeau -6.89 (unlucky on both sides of the puck)
16. Kadri -6.76
15. Weegar -4.31

LOL, if you're always looking just at the numbers, you'd think Sharangovich is a tool but on the ice, he's fantastic no matter how you look at it. I think Hubey was doing something that we haven't seen a lot of on any given game, which is - he shot quite a bit more than what he normally does - that's a good thing. He did pass the puck off a few times and it ended up being bad plays (that's almost like 95% of the time). As long as he's not passing that puck blindly and shoots the puck when he's got a chance, it's bound to go in. I think it's just a learning process to unlearn what he had been doing for so long. That's the same for Kadri. I'm not apologetic at all with any players. If they are crap on the ice, I'll call it out or say nothing at all. If the player is doing good things, he deserve some praises. Call it as it is. Numbers don't mean much.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by CSharp

LOL, if you're always looking just at the numbers, you'd think Sharangovich is a tool but on the ice, he's fantastic no matter how you look at it. I think Hubey was doing something that we haven't seen a lot of on any given game, which is - he shot quite a bit more than what he normally does - that's a good thing. He did pass the puck off a few times and it ended up being bad plays (that's almost like 95% of the time). As long as he's not passing that puck blindly and shoots the puck when he's got a chance, it's bound to go in. I think it's just a learning process to unlearn what he had been doing for so long. That's the same for Kadri. I'm not apologetic at all with any players. If they are crap on the ice, I'll call it out or say nothing at all. If the player is doing good things, he deserve some praises. Call it as it is. Numbers don't mean much.

Numbers mean a lot. They’re telling you the result of what is happening on the ice.

You’re right in the sense that you actually have to watch to see whether a player is making good decisions, playing with pace, lucky/unlucky, what they’re doing in each zone, etc, but the numbers tell you the outcome of all of those things, and combining the two is the only way to have anything close to an accurate read on a player.

If it’s just one or the other (what you see vs. the results), you’re not getting the full picture.

[FanIn80]

Huberdeau's never really been a sniper. He's hit 30 goals twice in his career (exactly 30 goals, both times), including his 115 point season.

He doesn't get a lot of high danger shots, as he's hardly ever in those hard-to-get-to areas. From what I've seen over the years, his shots are mostly from in front, but mid-range and from the med-low danger areas. Those shots require a lot of external factors before they become goals. Blockers have to miss, goalies have to be screened, he doesn't have much of a one-timer, so there's not a lot of surprise on his side... except of course for when he avoids the shot altogether in favour of a pass... but that tends to even surpise his own linemates.

He needs a Bennett/Wenberg. Someone who drives the net and lives in that high danger area and causes nothing but chaos when they're there. Someone who really doesn't care if Huberdeau's shooting or passing, because they're a friggin puckhound who will just capitalize on whatever happens.

Huberdeau's bread and butter is the apple. That's where his points come from, and he needs that banger in the middle of the ice and the two-way backchecker with finishing ability on his opposite wing.

I feel like he finally has the right mix of guys with Backlund and Coleman, but they need to switch positions. Coleman is a more stable Bennett and Backlund is kind of a lower offence / higher defence Duclair.

Anyway, I get that we can look at it as his been "unlucky" in the goal-scoring department, but his play style and shot selections both require a higher degree of "luck". It shouldn't matter though, because his points come from assists anyway... but that's the part that stands to me. Coleman is one of our best goal scorers this year, and Backlund seems to have rounded back into form lately as well... but Huberdeau isn't getting any assists off of any of that action. That's the most worrying part. I mean, I get he does some away-from-the-puck stuff that helps out the line, and maybe even requires some defensive attention from the opposition when he's out there, which might take some heat off of Coleman... but I mean, those are what you pay role players for. Those are supposed to just be minor traits that help make up a franchise player... not be their primary addition to a line.


Anyway, I didn't start this post wanting to rag on Huberdeau. I agree he's looked better as of late, but my contention isn't that the points will start to come... it's that either Backlund and Coleman have to switch positions, or Huberdeau has to start (continue, maybe?) adjusting to things being reversed. Meaning less of the netfront-but-low-danger stuff and more of just getting involved with what the other two guys on his line are trying to do. North/South, high pressure, fight for the puck and stop the surprize passing that's really just a fancy giveaway. He just doesn't have that guy in the middle who's gonna bang away in front of the net for him.

Also, I keep using "luck" in quotes, because I don't really think of under/over-expected as being a luck thing. I think of is just certain areas of the ice and certain shot selections require more external factors than others. Like look at Zary... there are comments that suggest he's been incredibly lucky so far... but then again, he has 7 goals and 5 of them are high-dangers. He missed the first 10 games of the season, but he's only 2 shots off the league average in high-danger shots. I look at a guy like Zary as just being someone who doesn't need a lot of things to happen in order to score a goal. It's also a lot easier for him to get assists when you consider he's playing with two other guys who also love playing in the high danger area... which is a huge benefit for sure.

Actually that drives me nuts a bit... because Huberdeau and Kadri should technically be perfect together... but Kadri's too competitive. He doesn't have patience for things that aren't clicking right away, so he reverts to trying to do it all himself (puck hogging). Then again, that's a nother thing about Zary and Pospisil. Kadri passes to them. He sets them up, he lets them carry. He's a completely different player with them, and much closer to the Colorado Kadri. Like, he just wants to win and if his linemates can help with that, then he's just a really, really good player. (That's kind of a knock against Kadri, more than it's a good thing about Zary and Pospisil, but "really good Kadri" is not a bad payoff to get from it.)


K, anyway I'm done. I'm sure I've left tons of holes all throughout my post, and maybe I'll learn a few things because of that... but this is where my head's at right meow at least.


Edit: Here's a good visual of the 3 danger areas. Blue = high, red = medium, orange = low. (I know that's obvious to some, but maybe not to others.)



Look at that, and think about all the places you usually see Huberdeau shooting from.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

He had a good game and was shooting, but that is a shot you have to take. He had all net.

I am also not a person who harps on every play that doesn't work for him, but that was a bad play.

He had jump last night.

I actually didn't see a ton of net.

Dostal came out and cut down the angle pretty well...the move probably would have been a deke to the backhand since Dostal was playing the shot aggressively.

But it's also why I don't really give too much crap for the pass...even Dostal was caught pretty surprised by the pass - if the pass was a little more accurate or if Ruzicka kept moving towards the net (think Huberdeau did lead the pass a bit) then I think it's a tap in.

Those were the types of passes he was making with Bennett and Duclair that they were finishing in Florida that had lots of this board going "Bennett isn't doing anything special, he's just finishing Huberdeau's tap ins"

[getbak]

Originally Posted by AC

https://twitter.com/user/status/1738089692892180649

Merry Rasmus!

[CSharp]

@FanIn80: that's a pretty fair analysis of Hubey and Kadri. I think a lot of these players' on-ice failed plays are based on past instinctive behaviors that were successful for so long. Now, they're on a team where there's actually none of those supports that they're used to. So, it's pretty much a huge adjustment. Yeah. we're all pretty frustrated with the highly paid players but if Hubey starts shooting more instead of errantly passing the puck and if his luck improves, it'll be a good change. Last night was a good start for him. He's gotta learn new instincts. Either that or the team needs to be built around him.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Look at that, and think about all the places you usually see Huberdeau shooting from.

He definitely needs to get to the phallic area more if he's going to have a chance to score.

[ben voyonsdonc]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

He definitely needs to get to the phallic area more if he's going to have a chance to score.

That’s always been my experience.

[mjk123]

Very convincing win!!