The Stretch Before Jan 1

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Friday, Saturday, Sunday should be fun.

Dallas, Colorado, Vegas

Could be closer to rock bottom by the start of next week

Friday, Saturday and Monday.

[ricardodw]

The Flames have had the 5th easiest schedule in the West so far this year.

Easiest Canucks, Knights, Avs, Preds, Flames

They will have the hardest schedule for the rest of the year for any team in the West.

Boston 2x, rangers, Avs 4x, LA 4x Stars 2x 13 games that the Flame will likely be huge underdogs. Anything close to 13 pts out of these 13 games would be pretty acceptable for any solid playoff team in the league.


With a Rookie coach and GM and 4 valued 2024 UFAs this is pretty much a perfect tank/reload year.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

The Flames have had the 5th easiest schedule in the West so far this year.

Easiest Canucks, Knights, Avs, Preds, Flames

They will have the hardest schedule for the rest of the year for any team in the West.

Boston 2x, rangers, Avs 4x, LA 4x Stars 2x 13 games that the Flame will likely be huge underdogs. Anything close to 13 pts out of these 13 games would be pretty acceptable for any solid playoff team in the league.


With a Rookie coach and GM and 4 valued 2024 UFAs this is pretty much a perfect tank/reload year.

Last year they had the hardest schedule to start, and getting to the easier schedule later had no impact on their pace. When you have the base level of talent without the finish, the quality of competition isn't the primary problem.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Projection sites have the playoff ledge near 93-94 points if you want 70% certainty.

Calgary would need to go 37-23-3 to get to 94.

If they go 7-7-1 in their next 15, they'd need to go 30-16-2 for a 106 point pace in the final 48 games.

Think they'll need 18 points in the next 15 to make it possible ... something like 8-5-2 leaving a 101 point pace the rest of the way.

Anaheim, Seattle, Arizona ect. with 94 points? Doubt it

[SuperMatt18]

So originally I had broken this stretch before Christmas into two 9 game segments, and the first 9 game segment ended against the Devils on Saturday.

Preds: 4-2 L
Stars: 7-4 W
Avalanche: 3-1 L
Knights: 2-1 W
Stars: 4-3 W
Canucks: 4-3 L
Wild: 5-2 L
Hurricanes: 3-2 W
Devils: 4-2 L

So they had a decent start to this stretch but they go 1-3-0 in the final 4 to finish with a 4-5-0 record in that 9 game stretch overall and didn't really gain any ground and end up falling behind the Oilers. The poor games against the Pred and Wild really stand out, they played the tougher teams pretty well but those two games were dropped opportunities.

Now they have these 9 games before Jan 1st: Avalanche, Knights (B2B), Wild, Lightning, Panthers, Ducks, Kings, Kraken, Flyers.

Some really tough games in that stretch still (Avs, Knights, Lightning, Panthers, Kings) and need to go 5-3-1 in that stretch to get back to .500 before Jan 1st.

If they go below .500 over this 9 game stretch though then I think it probably means they are done...if they go 4-5-0 that would bring their record to 15-18-3 through 36 games and would require 60 points over the final 46 games to get to 93 points (27-13-6, .652 point percentage; which would seem unlikely with this group)

[dino7c]

Lightning are okay but they aren't a scary good team anymore

actually they have 13 wins in 29 games, they kinda suck

[Roof-Daddy]

It's nice that the young players are doing pretty good for the most part, but this team needs to sell...clearly, and I'm very confident that's what they'll do.

Hopefully the UFA's stay healthy and fetch solid returns.

Without Lindholm, Hanifin and Tanev the team likely topples down the standings too. Which isn't the worst thing if you're going to miss the playoffs anyways, and should be rebuilding.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Lightning are okay but they aren't a scary good team anymore

actually they have 13 wins in 29 games, they kinda suck

They've had a hard time keeping the puck out of their own net, but that will change now that Vasilevsky is back.

Still 4th in the NHL in Goals For and Kucherov is on a tear.

Won 3 straight with Vasilevsky in net and he's seem to have shaken off the rust, only allowed 4 GA in his last 3 GP.

[dino7c]

they still aren't a scary team like the Avs, Kings ect.
its will be one of the more winnable games

they have a negative goal differential despite all the scoring and its not all on goaltending

they are a bubble team IMO

that's not to say its an easy game

[ComixZone]

Andrei Vasilevskiy is back, and if he gets his feet under him, is an absolute game changer for Tampa.

[Royle9]

We're right on pace for another 15th over all selection in the 2024 draft.

Sell the UFA's, get assets/young players and bring up the young guys on the farm and ride it out with what you have long term.

Enough of the "oh we we've won twice were back in it now so we cant afford to sell our assets" its getting so tiresome. The young guys are the only thing that's made this season watchable for most fans, just keep continuing with that and get rid of the dead weight guys who have no desire to be here long term.

Build on the culture and identity of the team, with guys who want to be here.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Royle9

We're right on pace for another 15th over all selection in the 2024 draft.

Sell the UFA's, get assets/young players and bring up the young guys on the farm and ride it out with what you have long term.

Enough of the "oh we we've won twice were back in it now so we cant afford to sell our assets" its getting so tiresome. The young guys are the only thing that's made this season watchable for most fans, just keep continuing with that and get rid of the dead weight guys who have no desire to be here long term.

Build on the culture and identity of the team, with guys who want to be here.

That's optimistic. We're currently 24th in both points and point percentage. We're getting a top 10 pick this year regardless of whether we sell off the UFAs. I think we sell all (or all but one) anyways, regardless of how well this team does. All the sell off would do is guarantee a top 5 pick. We're not going to be close to the playoff picture by the end.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That's optimistic. We're currently 24th in both points and point percentage. We're getting a top 10 pick this year regardless of whether we sell off the UFAs. I think we sell all (or all but one) anyways, regardless of how well this team does. All the sell off would do is guarantee a top 5 pick. We're not going to be close to the playoff picture by the end.

I hope you're right, but some how this team finds a way to string together 6-7 wins in a row and with the weak pacific division this year, I fear its happening.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Royle9

I hope you're right, but some how this team finds a way to string together 6-7 wins in a row and with the weak pacific division this year, I fear its happening.

Well I like most fans won't cheer against a 6-7 game winning streak as winning is much more fun than losing. That said the team hasn't looked great since the Zadorov trade and it wouldn't be surprising if they really start to slide and once they start moving out more bodies as this team could easily move into the area of 5 or 6th overall by the end of the season.

[Savvy27]

So, following this very difficult stretch, the Flames will have 23 games remaining before the March 1 trade deadline. Roughly half the games will be against teams in a playoff position (plus Edmonton and St. Louis who may very well be in playoff spots by then).


@ MIN
@ NSH
@ PHI
@ CHI
vs OTT
@ ARI
@ VGK
vs ARI
vs TOR
vs EDM
vs STL
vs CBJ
vs CHI
@ BOS
@ NJD
@ NYI
@ NYR
vs SJS
vs DET
vs WPG
vs BOS
@ EDM
vs LAK

For those concerned that the Flames will make a dog-days-of-the-season run and end up with the middle and outside the top 10 of the draft, I think there is plenty of merit to that concern. I have been a Flames fan for a long time and have seen them make that push far more often than sinking to the bottom of the standings.

From that perspective, I am also hoping that they make a couple more early moves to choose the lane where this season is for the development of young players and amassing assets for the future of the team.

They do deserve some credit as they have done pretty decently in a stretch against many of the best teams in the league, but even with this fairly impressive chunk of the season, I don't think many are mistaking them for a contender of anything other than a wildcard spot. Ryan Huska has done better than I expected and he looks like a coach who can they can keep around and hopefully get some elite talent to work with.

They've only got one player participating in the World Juniors this season, so there is a lot of room for improvement for the younger end of their prospect base. Hopefully they can take what is a pretty disappointing period of franchise history and make the most of it to brighten the future. As I have said before, I think they can get back to trying to be competitive as early as next year, but if they are going to do that, then it is critical that they get as much draft capital and as many prospects as they can right now.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

That's optimistic. We're currently 24th in both points and point percentage. We're getting a top 10 pick this year regardless of whether we sell off the UFAs. I think we sell all (or all but one) anyways, regardless of how well this team does. All the sell off would do is guarantee a top 5 pick. We're not going to be close to the playoff picture by the end.

Not that it matters but we are 25th in win percentage. Your point stands, we are likely to pick top 8 this year with a good chance at top 5 if we sell off. Ottawa has a higher win percentage and as long as they go 2-3 in their 5 games in hand on us they will be ahead of us in points total.

Teams behind the Flames include the Wild and Buffalo which seem likely to pass the Flames by the end of the year. San Jose, Chicago and Anaheim are likely out of reach as are the Blue Jackets in all likelihood. But 5th worst record seems quite likely even without a sell off.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Once the UFA's are traded, the winning % will drop further.
Post trade deadline, this team will lose a lot of hockey games and draft position will improve.
Other teams who load up and are competing for the playoffs will also play us harder.

[TrentCrimmIndependent]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Once the UFA's are traded, the winning % will drop further.
Post trade deadline, this team will lose a lot of hockey games and draft position will improve.
Other teams who load up and are competing for the playoffs will also play us harder.

You say this but how often do we see teams win when they should logically drop off.

Case in point Nashville last year after they did their sell off.

If Wolf finds his footing at this level with more games it could really mediate the losses.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

they still aren't a scary team like the Avs, Kings ect.
its will be one of the more winnable games

they have a negative goal differential despite all the scoring and its not all on goaltending

they are a bubble team IMO

that's not to say its an easy game

They are 1 of 4 teams that have given up 100 goals so far this year and they just got back their superstar goalie. It's not just the Vaz was out, it was also the options they had while he was out. Sorry but they aren't a bubble team when healthy.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by TrentCrimmIndependent

You say this but how often do we see teams win when they should logically drop off.

Case in point Nashville last year after they did their sell off.

If Wolf finds his footing at this level with more games it could really mediate the losses.

Not a bad point, but I'd also suggest that Lindholm, Hanifin, and Tanev will have a bigger impact than Ekholm, Granlund, and Niederreiter did for Nashville.

I think the Preds went 12-9-2 after the deadline. They finished 42-32-8 (92 points, .561 hockey), so they went into the deadline 30-23-6 (59 GP, .559 hockey).

So, Nashville was mildly worse after the trade deadline. They certainly didn't drop in the standings the way they likely hoped for.

I think hoping that Wolf can carry a team that is worse on paper is probably unrealistic expectations...but time will tell. Saros I imagine had a huge impact on Nashville maintaining their pre-deadline pace.