The Stretch Before Jan 1

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Fair ...

But if you're aiming for 91 (not saying you are) you probable become the 9th place team, not pass them.

Nobody's aiming for 91. I'm just guessing that the threshold will be lower than usual this year.

As Enoch says, things tend to normalize in the second quarter of the season – but the first quarter has been so bad for so many teams, I don't think enough of them will fully catch up.

There are some appalling teams in the West this season.

[Enoch Root]

yeah, wouldn't be surprised if the threshold is a little lower this year

hoping the line is right above the word: Edmonton

[R0taryRocket]

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

It's not, though.

That team is on an historic PDO heater, and the Flames just absolutely ragdolled them. I am pretty certain the Canucks are making the playoffs after a stellar start, but that team is paper tiger, and the holes are showing.

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think anyone is suggesting that that is an "easy" game, only that there is a world of difference between playing Vancouver and playing Dallas. They are NOT in the same bracket.

And, what do we mean by "current form" here? In their last five games the Canucks have a 3-2-0 record, a plus-2 goal differential, 3.37 GFA, 2.98 GAA, against five teams that have a collective 0.417 winning percentage, and a minus-104 goal differential.

Yeah, if that is the "current form" of the Canucks, then that's not great.

Let's hope your line of thinking is how the Flames view the Canucks in a few weeks. IMO Calgary took the Canucks serious last game and played more physical than a typical regular season "easy" game. Most teams can't sustain that level of physicality for 82 games in a season. Pospisil was a nightmare for the Canucks in that game for example.

The only way the Flames are beating the Canucks this year is if they play like it's a playoff game.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by R0taryRocket

Quote:
Originally Posted by SuperMatt18 View Post
As a Canucks hater I would love to say that...but when you are 13-5-1 and have the 3 leading scorers in the NHL it's tough to call it an easier game.





Let's hope your line of thinking is how the Flames view the Canucks in a few weeks. IMO Calgary took the Canucks serious last game and played more physical than a typical regular season "easy" game. Most teams can't sustain that level of physicality for 82 games in a season. Pospisil was a nightmare for the Canucks in that game for example.

The only way the Flames are beating the Canucks this year is if they play like it's a playoff game.

No.

The difference between teams in the NHL is marginal, and both teams are in the middle group (not elite, not rebuilding). Any team can beat any other team on any given night, and any game between these two teams is up for grabs, for the team that works harder or gets the bounces that night.

Suggesting the Nucks are on a different level than the Flames is laughable, and the recent game proved that.

[R0taryRocket]

I don't disagree with you that any team can beat any other team on any given night. The difference is that the Flames will have bring the same level of physicality like they did in the previous game to win. Just to clarify, I'm responding to Textcritic who is arguing that the Canucks should be viewed in the 2nd camp. The OP distinguished two groups:

"Avs x 2, Knights x 2, Stars x 2, Canucks, Kings, Panthers, Lightning, Hurricanes, Devils, Flyers" (Tough games)

"Seattle, Preds, Wild, and Ducks are only easier matchups in this final 18 game stretch before 2024." (Easy games)

The difference might be marginal between NHL teams, but the reality is that 16 teams make the playoffs, and the rest don't. I firmly believe the standings at the end of the season will show the Canucks are on different level than the Flames (this year).

[Enoch Root]

If that makes you feel better about your team, knock yourself out.

But the difference remains marginal.

And no, the Flames do not need to bring that same level of physicality to win.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by D as in David

You think the Flames' schedule is tough? How tough must the Oilers' schedule be when there are only two other teams in the league worse than you?

Are they really worse? San Jose beat the Oilers, and Chicago likely would have too had they had the chance already.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by R0taryRocket

...The only way the Flames are beating the Canucks this year is if they play like it's a playoff game.

LOL.

The Flames have absolutely owned the Canucks for a few years now, and last week's game did nothing but enforce this fact. There is nothing special about that team. The Flames can and will beat them like they beat any other NHL team—by playing the way they are capable of, and by minimizing their mistakes. Likewise, the same can be said of the Canucks—it's the only way they are beating the Flames.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by R0taryRocket

I don't disagree with you that any team can beat any other team on any given night. The difference is that the Flames will have bring the same level of physicality like they did in the previous game to win. Just to clarify, I'm responding to Textcritic who is arguing that the Canucks should be viewed in the 2nd camp. The OP distinguished two groups:

"Avs x 2, Knights x 2, Stars x 2, Canucks, Kings, Panthers, Lightning, Hurricanes, Devils, Flyers" (Tough games)

"Seattle, Preds, Wild x 2, and Ducks are only easier matchups in this final 18 game stretch before 2024." (Easy games)

The difference might be marginal between NHL teams, but the reality is that 16 teams make the playoffs, and the rest don't. I firmly believe the standings at the end of the season will show the Canucks are on different level than the Flames (this year).

And really it wasn't that scientific.

The 13 games against the tougher group are teams above .500 right now. (The combined record for those teams just happens to be much harder than .500 as they are combined playing at like a .655 pace).

Vs 5 games against teams at or below .500 right now.

Not really sure why so many people had so much issues with the Canucks being listed as a "tougher" matchup when really that's just true right now.

It might not be sustainable, it might be a PDO bender, it might be a lot of smoke and mirrors due to an easier schedule. But they are still going to be a tougher game for this Flames team right now.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

And really it wasn't that scientific.

The 13 games against the tougher group are teams above .500 right now. (The combined record for those teams just happens to be much harder than .500 as they are combined playing at like a .655 pace).

Vs 5 games against teams at or below .500 right now.

Not really sure why so many people had so much issues with the Canucks being listed as a "tougher" matchup when really that's just true right now.

It might not be sustainable, it might be a PDO bender, it might be a lot of smoke and mirrors due to an easier schedule. But they are still going to be a tougher game for this Flames team right now.

I would also add that it is a rivalry game and Calgary owned Vancouver last time. They will be motivated to have a better showing, regardless of where Vancouver is in the standings. Therefore, it should be a tougher game.

[R0taryRocket]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

LOL.

The Flames have absolutely owned the Canucks for a few years now, and last week's game did nothing but enforce this fact. There is nothing special about that team. The Flames can and will beat them like they beat any other NHL team—by playing the way they are capable of, and by minimizing their mistakes. Likewise, the same can be said of the Canucks—it's the only way they are beating the Flames.

Settle down there with the terms "owned" and "ragdolled". If anything, you are trying to bait me into overstating the ability of the team I follow, but perhaps you need to look a bit closer at how your team has played. Simply put, the Flames will have to take the Canucks seriously to win their remaining games and have a shot of the playoffs.

If the Flames team actually considers the Canucks in the same camp as the Wild, Sharks, Preds, Ducks, just look at how the Canucks have outscored opponents who haven't brough their A-game, so far this season. You can't say the same for the Flames this year. Luckily for the other fans of your team, I doubt the Flames organization shares your mindset. "LOL"

[All In Good Time]

I'm afraid that our season will be over well before Jan 1

[Bingo]

Projection sites have the playoff ledge near 93-94 points if you want 70% certainty.

Calgary would need to go 37-23-3 to get to 94.

If they go 7-7-1 in their next 15, they'd need to go 30-16-2 for a 106 point pace in the final 48 games.

Think they'll need 18 points in the next 15 to make it possible ... something like 8-5-2 leaving a 101 point pace the rest of the way.

[Savvy27]

Originally Posted by All In Good Time

I'm afraid that our season will be over well before Jan 1

Perhaps it will, but hopefully this will be a turning point towards building a championship team. Every indication is that the Flames are listening on all of their UFAs and even players signed beyond this season. The assets they pick up and cap space they create are going to be useful for drafting new players and also for bringing in high level help for the remaining veterans even next season.

Zary, Pospisil, Coronato, Pelletier, Wolf, Solovyov, and maybe Poirier will be getting NHL experience that should make the next few seasons a little smoother. It should be intriguing watching them develop.

They don't need to tear the team down completely. Thankfully they have some good young players already, so I am basically hoping that they really bottom out this year and get a top 5 pick that provides a franchise center or defenseman and they can start pushing again as early as next season.

[#-3]

I think anything below 3rd in the pacific at Jan 1 and the Flames should still approach the trade deadline as sellers, even if they stumble into a playoff spot through December. In no way should they be buyers, even if they somehow climb to 3rd.

[Inferno]

Originally Posted by #-3

In no way should they be buyers, even if they somehow climb to 3rd.

For rentals no. If they can somehow get someone who can help them who isn't too old with term they should explore it. They could be both buyers and sellers.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Projection sites have the playoff ledge near 93-94 points if you want 70% certainty.

Calgary would need to go 37-23-3 to get to 94.

If they go 7-7-1 in their next 15, they'd need to go 30-16-2 for a 106 point pace in the final 48 games.

Think they'll need 18 points in the next 15 to make it possible ... something like 8-5-2 leaving a 101 point pace the rest of the way.

I honestly think the second part would be easier...schedule is that tough coming up. But a tough schedule just means those games are out of the way. You think SJ is bad now, how bad are they after the deadline?

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You think SJ is bad now, how bad are they after the deadline?

Not much different. Have they actually got anything to sell that a contender would want?

[Goriders]

Friday, Saturday, Sunday should be fun.

Dallas, Colorado, Vegas

Could be closer to rock bottom by the start of next week

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Goriders

Friday, Saturday, Sunday should be fun.

Dallas, Colorado, Vegas

Could be closer to rock bottom by the start of next week

Pretty sure they aren't playing 3 straight