[PGT] Calgary Flames 2 - Pittsburgh Penguins 5

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

No it doesn’t. That stat does not factor in defensive positioning at all

Expected goals certainly take into account what a team gives up so to some degree it does.

There is no where was this guy moment in a stat for sure.

But if you give up 5 expected goals against you're defensively weak as a team for example.

[Iginla_4_Prez]

That first minute of the 3rd period was awful. The entire game derailed from there. The team was competitive for the first two periods, but missed a lot of shots and Markstrom made some great saves. He had to. Some dangerous opportunities for the Pens.


Hopefully we get a nice bounce back game against the Caps tomorrow.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Need Sutter hockey without Sutter toxicity.
Huska has a tough task at hand.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Bingo

At least systemically it was a huge step forward. The Pens only had 15 five on five shot attempts through 2 periods ... that's miniscule. In high danger terms 7 against five on 5 vs the 15 against Winnipeg.

I see the concerns about offensive generation and goal scoring for sure, the team lacks drivers and game breakers.

Their best bet is to learn the system and keep other teams and bay, and the first two periods were a solid step in that direction.

Yeah. They need to be solid defensively and then have depth scoring up and down the line up. If they can play like they did for the first two periods outside of the penalty troubles they’ll be in a good spot defensively

[Beninho]

Originally Posted by Reggie Dunlop

Scratch Coronato a game or two and have him watch from the press box.

Scratch Kadri

[CalgaryFan1988]

It's really too bad that Treliving didn't leave a year earlier.

[Fan in Exile]

I think we can pump the brakes on the Zadorov bandwagon a little after that one. In his own world on those second and third goals leaving his man wide wide open.

[Royle9]

Coronato might be minus 6 but he’s been the only positive/noticeably engaged player every shift.

He was on Backlunds line last game taking all the hard matchups and yep they all got scored on. Most of those defensive gafs and giveaways, not really his fault.

I wish we had more guys playing with Matt’s intensity honestly, lots of passengers out there and nobody noticeable once again. This team really needs its players who are paid to be “stars” to step up and drive offence.

I’d also like to see Weegar bump Andersson off the 1st PP unit.
Our PP continues to struggle, they also need to keep Coronato on the half boards, not sure why they were putting him as the net front guy. Utilize his shot (his goal he was in the right spot) just feed him like Ovechkin, and soon teams will recognize the threat and open up for cross ice passes.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Expected goals certainly take into account what a team gives up so to some degree it does.

There is no where was this guy moment in a stat for sure.

But if you give up 5 expected goals against you're defensively weak as a team for example.

Yes, with the volume of data upon which the model is built, it should trend such that teams who are poor defensively will have higher xGA.

My response was to a guy talking about breakdowns, though. Single events that get under represented or muted in the model.

Let’s get specific before we generalize

Consider the Malkin goal. Hanifin puts it to a Penguin at the blue line and disappears into thin air. Pen picks it up, passes to Malkin who walks in under no pressure and picks his spot.

Things like the shot position, rebound or rush (preceding events), and shot type may be factored in. The lack of pressure and absence of defence are not.

You put a defenseman in position getting stick on puck or forcing Malkin to make a quicker shot and the shot has the same xG contribution

An xG model is intended to reflect the value of the average shot, based on those measured parameters, from an average shooter, more so than reflecting the actual probability of that specific shot becoming a goal

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Fan in Exile

I think we can pump the brakes on the Zadorov bandwagon a little after that one. In his own world on those second and third goals leaving his man wide wide open.

My vote is we pump the brakes on pronouncements on anything until we get a few more games in.

[reddude]

I went to Jets game and defense of zone coverage and turnovers were brutal, last night it happened in the third and I will give Cornato a pass as it was veteran guys making most of the errors.
The first goal bounced off a leg to Guentzel and he banked it off Marky,they need to figure it out they will it's a long season keep expectations low.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My vote is we pump the brakes on pronouncements on anything until we get a few more games in.

I expect ~10 games to settle in then the next games through game 20 should give a better idea of what they are going to be

[Fan in Exile]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My vote is we pump the brakes on pronouncements on anything until we get a few more games in.

I don't disagree. It will take time for the team to adjust to new personnel, new roles and a new coach. It's a long season. I'm not advocating getting too high or too low on anyone. I will say I like the 4th line better than at any point last season and that Markstrom has started the season strong as positives.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by reddude

I went to Jets game and defense of zone coverage and turnovers were brutal, last night it happened in the third and I will give Cornato a pass as it was veteran guys making most of the errors.
The first goal bounced off a leg to Guentzel and he banked it off Marky,they need to figure it out they will it's a long season keep expectations low.

And that first goal followed Mangiapane being far too careless when the guy checking him is Sidney frickin’ Crosby

[Paulie Walnuts]

First off all Huberdeau does make a lot of plays that to unfinished. He is a star player but he isn't McDavid lapping around for 24 minutes. He makes passes no one else can but guys like Sharangovich can't miss wide open nets. Weegar fumbles the puck. If some of these get finished he's got 2 more points and everyone is singing a different tune. He's been a lot better.

Yesterday is a game when the depth needs to score a Goal. Time for the captain or Kadri to score a big goal.

It's also going to take at least 20 games for the team to settle in. The 21/22 Flames didn't take off until February when they had a 10 game home stand.

18/19 Flames took until mid November to get going.

It's been 2 games it's pretty much pre season like games right now.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Yes, with the volume of data upon which the model is built, it should trend such that teams who are poor defensively will have higher xGA.

My response was to a guy talking about breakdowns, though. Single events that get under represented or muted in the model.

Let’s get specific before we generalize

Consider the Malkin goal. Hanifin puts it to a Penguin at the blue line and disappears into thin air. Pen picks it up, passes to Malkin who walks in under no pressure and picks his spot.

Things like the shot position, rebound or rush (preceding events), and shot type may be factored in. The lack of pressure and absence of defence are not.

You put a defenseman in position getting stick on puck or forcing Malkin to make a quicker shot and the shot has the same xG contribution

An xG model is intended to reflect the value of the average shot, based on those measured parameters, from an average shooter, more so than reflecting the actual probability of that specific shot becoming a goal

No argument from me.

But teams with high expected goals against are generally bad defensively. If you have a low event game against things tend to go well.

There are many more parameters that could make the numbers better once they're added, but as it stands you aren't likely to succeed if you're giving up too many expected goals as an average.

[gvitaly]

• I thought Markstrom looked great through 40 mins. He made some absolutely amazing saves. I have no idea how those stayed out. He might want the 1st goal back, but he was solid all night.
• I liked the Coronato release, and the Lindholm pass. It was a play we often used to set up Toffoli last year.
• To add to that, it's great to see the PP making a difference in both games so far. I'm glad we got Savard for the job.
• The 4th line was great. I absolutely love the energy they bring, and the chances they generated.
• I'm still not a fan of the breakouts this team has. A lot of times I noticed the D trying to get the pucks out off the glass because they didn't have support.
• Some of the plays off the boards, or loss of pucks in transition resulted in either HD chances against or goals against.
• I'm still hoping to see more of the Huberdeau - Lindholm pairing at even strength
• Coronato's -4, and Hanifin's -3 aren't an indication of their play IMO. Hanifin was responsible for the 4th goal, but Crosby and Malkin simply took over that game in the 3rd.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

• I thought Markstrom looked great through 40 mins. He made some absolutely amazing saves. I have no idea how those stayed out. He might want the 1st goal back, but he was solid all night.
• I liked the Coronato release, and the Lindholm pass. It was a play we often used to set up Toffoli last year.
• To add to that, it's great to see the PP making a difference in both games so far. I'm glad we got Savard for the job.
• The 4th line was great. I absolutely love the energy they bring, and the chances they generated.
• I'm still not a fan of the breakouts this team has. A lot of times I noticed the D trying to get the pucks out off the glass because they didn't have support.
• Some of the plays off the boards, or loss of pucks in transition resulted in either HD chances against or goals against.
• I'm still hoping to see more of the Huberdeau - Lindholm pairing at even strength
• Coronato's -4, and Hanifin's -3 aren't an indication of their play IMO. Hanifin was responsible for the 4th goal, but Crosby and Malkin simply took over that game in the 3rd.

Maybe Sutter Butter was right all along.

[Zamboniman]

Easy everyone, let's not panic. No judgements quite yet. Let's give them ten games or so to settle in. Then another fifteen games to learn the new system. The next fifteen games, of course, are needed to gain chemistry with new linemates. The fifteen after that are to gain chemistry with the now changed new linemates. Then a bit of time is needed, say ten games, to shake off the all star week doldrums. Then fifteen or so games to get used to the different brand of sock tape.


Now we're at 80 games. Game 81 and 82 should really tell us what we have here. That's when we can start making judgements.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by CalgaryFan1988

It's really too bad that Treliving didn't leave a year earlier.

2 yrs