2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Sec214

[Enoch Root]

If the Flames had acquired a couple more late firsts / early seconds, they would have almost certainly drafted:

16th: Honzek
late 1st: Morin
early 2nd: Suniev

would have been a haul!

The interesting thing is that many fans would like these players better, had we had earlier slots to draft them into.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If the Flames had acquired a couple more late firsts / early seconds, they would have almost certainly drafted:

16th: Honzek
late 1st: Morin
early 2nd: Suniev

would have been a haul!

The interesting thing is that many fans would like these players better, had we had earlier slots to draft them into.

Exactly what I was thinking. There is where players were projected to go vs where they did go. If you look at the many different scouting list pre-draft and where the guys, we took were ranked we got.

Mid 1st
early 2nd
mid 2nd

All 3 were around or in the top 50 of the draft. Then if you compared what was being said 2023 vs 2022 draft you could say we got 3 1sts in 2022 draft.

This is why the Toffoli trade is a good deal, IMO we got more than a 3rd.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by stemit14

I assume Tkachuk, Lindholm, and Hanifin each would have returned a first round pick. I don’t think that’s unreasonable to think since they all were coming off of career years. There was a rumoured offer for Tkachuk that was more built on futures that I assume included a 2023 first round pick. Lindholm and Hanifin would have had two years left on their contracts on very reasonable deals so I think they would have returned first round picks as well. Those three trades plus the flames’ own first rounder makes 4 first round picks. You’re right that it does not always work that way due to the market changing.

And I agree things could be a lot better this year. All I meant was that if there was a time to commit to a full rebuild, last year would have been ideal. There was no way of knowing at the time that everything that could go wrong for the flames last season would go wrong.


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Sure, but, is that really different than any other team? Any, or the vast majority, of teams could liquidate their assets and stockpile picks for the next three or four drafts but it’s likely you will decimate your organization in the process.

What St.Louis did last year with several expiring contracts is not much different than what the Flames could do this year. In all likelihood I would say it will amount to a couple extra late 1st round picks, because rentals will be going to contenders/division leaders. If/when the Flame make these moves I would be surprised if they’re getting picks in the top 20-25. It’s pretty unlikely we’re getting our next superstar in that range and it also likely that player doesn’t start contributing for 3-4 years, if at all.

Also, the Flames did get a 1st in the Tkachuck deal and if he ended up in Carolina, St.Louis or Vegas, I would have to think that’s a pretty late 1st coming back.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by genetic_phreek

What's worse? Losing a UFA for nothing or losing a trade with the pending UFA?

How can a team "lose" a trade if the asset was leaving at end of the season?

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Sure, but, is that really different than any other team? Any, or the vast majority, of teams could liquidate their assets and stockpile picks for the next three or four drafts but it’s likely you will decimate your organization in the process.

What St.Louis did last year with several expiring contracts is not much different than what the Flames could do this year. In all likelihood I would say it will amount to a couple extra late 1st round picks, because rentals will be going to contenders/division leaders. If/when the Flame make these moves I would be surprised if they’re getting picks in the top 20-25. It’s pretty unlikely we’re getting our next superstar in that range and it also likely that player doesn’t start contributing for 3-4 years, if at all.

Also, the Flames did get a 1st in the Tkachuck deal and if he ended up in Carolina, St.Louis or Vegas, I would have to think that’s a pretty late 1st coming back.

The first they got for Tkachuk was not in the 2023 draft though. I would have thought the rumoured futures trade offer for Tkachuk would have to included a 2023 draft pick instead of a 2024/2025/2026 draft pick.

You’re correct though… any team could start a rebuild at any time by trading their valuable players. That may happen this year to the flames if Lindholm/Backlund/Hanifin/Zadorov all choose not to re-sign.

Last season more than others would have been a great starting point for a rebuild to begin… their top most talented offensive players decided they wanted to leave within weeks of each other. They were going into a very deep and talented draft with a generational player at the top. Also, virtually all of their remaining players were at their highest value (under contract for two years at reasonable cap hits). Whatever the return the flames get for lindholm/Backlund/Hanifin/Zadorov (if they are traded) will likely be less than what they would have gotten last summer. Yes the team would have been bad - that’s what is expected in a rebuild. At least they would have gotten picks in the 20-30 range in a very good draft (1023) instead of picks in the range of 20-30 (2024) in an average draft.

Obviously it’s an extreme case of shoulda-coulda-woulda. I was nervous about the Kadri signing but I didn’t see this awful last season coming. I honestly expect the flames to surprise a lot of teams this year and be really competitive. Likely to have a playoff spot I.M.O.


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[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by stemit14

The first they got for Tkachuk was not in the 2023 draft though. I would have thought the rumoured futures trade offer for Tkachuk would have to included a 2023 draft pick instead of a 2024/2025/2026 draft pick.

You’re correct though… any team could start a rebuild at any time by trading their valuable players. That may happen this year to the flames if Lindholm/Backlund/Hanifin/Zadorov all choose not to re-sign.

Last season more than others would have been a great starting point for a rebuild to begin… their top most talented offensive players decided they wanted to leave within weeks of each other. They were going into a very deep and talented draft with a generational player at the top. Also, virtually all of their remaining players were at their highest value (under contract for two years at reasonable cap hits). Whatever the return the flames get for lindholm/Backlund/Hanifin/Zadorov (if they are traded) will likely be less than what they would have gotten last summer. Yes the team would have been bad - that’s what is expected in a rebuild. At least they would have gotten picks in the 20-30 range in a very good draft (1023) instead of picks in the range of 20-30 (2024) in an average draft.

Obviously it’s an extreme case of shoulda-coulda-woulda. I was nervous about the Kadri signing but I didn’t see this awful last season coming. I honestly expect the flames to surprise a lot of teams this year and be really competitive. Likely to have a playoff spot I.M.O.


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But this scenario was similar 10 years ago. 2013 draft was labeled as the best draft since 2003. 2014 was said to be much weaker. If you look back at who was taken outside the top 15 in both 2013 and 2014

2013:
Shea Theodore, Hartman, Zadorov, Mantha, Burakovsky

2014:
Pastrnak, McCann, Kempe, Sanheim, Tuch, DeAngelo

2014 draft late 1sts are significantly better than 2013. Sometimes it is better to go for the rebuild this year as less teams will be tanking and more teams will be willing to move a 1st.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

If the Flames had acquired a couple more late firsts / early seconds, they would have almost certainly drafted:

16th: Honzek
late 1st: Morin
early 2nd: Suniev

would have been a haul!

The interesting thing is that many fans would like these players better, had we had earlier slots to draft them into.

Here's a different scenario what if the Flames drafted their players with their picks, plus

late 1st: Calum Ritchie(picked 27th overall, projected in the early teens)
early 2nd: Andrew Cristall(picked 40th, projected around Honzek).

It's difficult to project where the Flames ranked the players they didn't draft.

It's like when Conroy was saying that they valued Jack Beck as a 2nd rounder in 2021, they still drafted him in the 6th round and didn't even offer him an ELC this summer to keep him with the organization as a 20year old.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by flambers

How can a team "lose" a trade if the asset was leaving at end of the season?

You get a former Oiler in return?

[Ashasx]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1702069890176397500

[liamenator]

There was a lot of intensity in the spring. People feel and say a lot of things when they are mad, sad, anxious, or uncertain. The fall brings a different vibe altogether. It might not have been by design, but in the end I think it's been prudent to stretch the time line and ride things out a bit. Backlund is gone by the deadline but that was probably always the moment his value would be maximized. It wouldn't surprise me at all to see both Hanifin and Lindholm re-sign before then.

[Chonger]

All these players saying i wanna see what its like before I sign. Do they even believe in themselves?
I gotta see what everyone else can do just so I can make sure I can put up enough points for a good contract?

Id rather have team players that wanted to be here instead of Lindholm and Backlund. And im a big Backlund fan!

If they are leaders on the team, it looks like they both dont believe.

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[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But this scenario was similar 10 years ago. 2013 draft was labeled as the best draft since 2003. 2014 was said to be much weaker. If you look back at who was taken outside the top 15 in both 2013 and 2014

2013:
Shea Theodore, Hartman, Zadorov, Mantha, Burakovsky

2014:
Pastrnak, McCann, Kempe, Sanheim, Tuch, DeAngelo

2014 draft late 1sts are significantly better than 2013. Sometimes it is better to go for the rebuild this year as less teams will be tanking and more teams will be willing to move a 1st.

That’s an interesting scenario. I haven’t seen/heard much about the 2024 draft other than it is considered to be good, not great like this years. So, seems like there will be, as usual, good players to be had. Will other teams be more willing to move draft picks, or 1st round picks, now that the cap is set to increase fairly sustainably over the next handful of years (we hope). Warrener talked about it in yesterdays BB. Clear out a bunch of salary and become a bank for the league. Be willing to take on bad contracts for future incentives. Seems very unlikely the Flames would do this but is is an intriguing idea.

Conroy is in a tough spot, no question about it. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. I think so much hinges on Lindholm’s decision. If he won’t resign, they’re almost forced to rebuild/retool. Aside from Kylington, you’re probably open to moving all the 2024 UFA’s. if Lindholm does resign, implying the Flames still see themselves as a competitive team, how does that affect Backlund decision? What about Zadorov then?…..

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by Chonger

All these players saying i wanna see what its like before I sign. Do they even believe in themselves?
I gotta see what everyone else can do just so I can make sure I can put up enough points for a good contract?

Id rather have team players that wanted to be here instead of Lindholm and Backlund. And im a big Backlund fan!

If they are leaders on the team, it looks like they both dont believe.

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you need to get in the mindset of it being a business.

They're going to make their money no matter what, but most players would rather do it on a competitive team and not a tire fire. Which you have to admit the Flames were last year.

Why wouldn't they see how the first month or two goes? They'll know right quick if last year was an anomaly or not. In this day and age of pro sports, blind allegiance to a team is stupid.

[Niemo]

The absolute worst thing about rebuilding is that we don’t have our 2025 1st round pick and there’s no protection outside of Top 1. We can’t “tank” until 2026. If Lindholm doesn’t resign, best case is to sell off UFAs now, get a top 10 pick this year and several high end assets, then trade for expiring (next season) useful players for assets and sign all these decent players on 1 yr deals to sneak in next year.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Niemo

The absolute worst thing about rebuilding is that we don’t have our 2025 1st round pick and there’s no protection outside of Top 1. We can’t “tank” until 2026. If Lindholm doesn’t resign, best case is to sell off UFAs now, get a top 10 pick this year and several high end assets, then trade for expiring (next season) useful players for assets and sign all these decent players on 1 yr deals to sneak in next year.

The Flames have top 10 protection in that pick the only way the Habs can get the second overall pick is if the Flames lands there AND Florida also picks in the top 10 of the same draft. Highly unlikely.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by Chonger

All these players saying i wanna see what its like before I sign. Do they even believe in themselves?
I gotta see what everyone else can do just so I can make sure I can put up enough points for a good contract?

Id rather have team players that wanted to be here instead of Lindholm and Backlund. And im a big Backlund fan!

If they are leaders on the team, it looks like they both dont believe.

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I think this has more to do with not everyone buying in last year. Now the upcoming free agents look to see if the likes of Kadri, and Huberdeau will buy in with the new coach.

As for leadership. Now both Andersson, and Z said that Backlund was the captain since Gio left. Backlund is definitely a leader, and he proved it by leading team Sweden to a gold medal. Backlund's coaches on team Sweden were saying Backlund was already planning all the team schedules before he even became captain. When Lindholm got to CGY he was mockingly calling Backlund father, because he was helping him out with everything off the ice.

Where was that leadership last year? Last year Backlund was constantly butting heads with Sutter in their FU matches. IMO, that's why Backlund felt like he needed the C last year so he can keep people accountable without it backfiring.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

https://twitter.com/user/status/1702069890176397500

Those tough decisions can be taken either way . Flames in a secure playoff spot at deadline could also mean do they keep hanifin ,etc instead of trading for late firsts and b prospects in order to make a run. I don’t think it’s that black and white of a statement like the reporter is leading us to believe.

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by gvitaly

I think this has more to do with not everyone buying in last year. Now the upcoming free agents look to see if the likes of Kadri, and Huberdeau will buy in with the new coach.

As for leadership. Now both Andersson, and Z said that Backlund was the captain since Gio left. Backlund is definitely a leader, and he proved it by leading team Sweden to a gold medal. Backlund's coaches on team Sweden were saying Backlund was already planning all the team schedules before he even became captain. When Lindholm got to CGY he was mockingly calling Backlund father, because he was helping him out with everything off the ice.

Where was that leadership last year? Last year Backlund was constantly butting heads with Sutter in their FU matches. IMO, that's why Backlund felt like he needed the C last year so he can keep people accountable without it backfiring.

If Backlund signs for 2 x 2 i'd make him the captain. But I sure as hell wouldn't sign him for more than that.

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

If Backlund signs for 2 x 2 i'd make him the captain. But I sure as hell wouldn't sign him for more than that.

I'm not a GM, but I think Backlund is worth more than that.

Here are the athletic's valuation of our players last year, based on production and analytics.
Upcoming UFA/RFA:
Lindholm : $8.6M
Backlund: $8.5M
Tanev: $8.4M
Hanifin: $7.8M
Zadorov: $5.5M
Kylington: $5.5M(guessing its based on 2years ago).
Dube: $3.1M

Other notables:
Huberdeau: $7M
Kadri: $6.7M
Mangiapane: $6.2M
Coleman: $6M

Weegar: $12.1M
Andersson: $11M

Markstrom: league min

Most of those values are a lot higher than what they should be especially when we consider age, but I would argue that Backlund's worth to the Flames would be a lot more than $2M in each of the following 2 years.

https://theathletic.com/3989344/2023...gary-flames-2/

I'm not sure if there is an updated version, but I'm just using it for reference.