The number of Wagner troops in Belarus has fallen quite a lot before this though. Many of them have left for Africa or other places, in part because they weren't getting properly paid in Belarus.
The number of Wagner troops in Belarus has fallen quite a lot before this though. Many of them have left for Africa or other places, in part because they weren't getting properly paid in Belarus.
I wonder if we will get a swelling of the Foreign Legion's ranks, akin to what happened during late 40's.
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Captain James P. DeCOSTE, CD, 18 Sep 1993
Although a lot of people were convinced something like this would happen to Prigozhin, does this mean that Putin has been able to re-install as much control and uniformity as before?
Has he played this as perfectly as he has over the years to this point? The reason why I ask this is because we have this narrative that he was losing control over things, infighting, threats of potential coup and new leadership etc. None of this has really materialized. He has gotten even more bolden with this.
Who really knows what's going on but this development seems to defuse certain risks within the Putin regime to him specifically with Wagner group slowly breaking up.
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I guess it would depend on your spin. My view would be this helps him consolidate some power. He’s gotten rid of a pest, and if the reports are accurate, gotten rid of some generals and staff who he thinks were a problem. In this respect he’s perhaps hung onto his power, or pushed his detractors a bit more underground.
The opposite view is this makes him look more scared and weak. He also has (we assume) alienated Wagner which were some of the most hardened troops he had. He also has potentially made more enemies in the military who will now bide their time. They can easily say “he did that too _____, he can do that to me” we best stay quiet and work from behind the scenes. Like a certain orange leader, he has, from our outside view, surrounded himself with people who will agree with him and do what he wants. That may not be the best approach as questioning/looking at alternatives typically leads to a better decision. It also may result in his opponent sensing a time to strike while there is confusion and uncertainty.
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Although a lot of people were convinced something like this would happen to Prigozhin, does this mean that Putin has been able to re-install as much control and uniformity as before?
Has he played this as perfectly as he has over the years to this point? The reason why I ask this is because we have this narrative that he was losing control over things, infighting, threats of potential coup and new leadership etc. None of this has really materialized. He has gotten even more bolden with this.
Who really knows what's going on but this development seems to defuse certain risks within the Putin regime to him specifically with Wagner group slowly breaking up.
I think the way he has been able to clean up Post-Coup leaves him in a much better state than he was pre-coup. That doesn’t mean he played well up to this point. It’s just he handled the point from the coup attempt to now successfully.
His invasion failing led him to have to rely on Wagner to maintain positions which increased Prigohzons power to the point his information people could be openly critical of the MoD. Putin was in a position that he could not just kill Prigozin to eliminate the threat pre-coup. His actions to stop Wagner and absorb it caused the coup.
Essentially for some reason Wagner stopped on the March to Moscow. Was it lack of support, schrewd negotiating, failure to get Nukes, something else, but Putin was able to survive the coup attempt and then able to dismantle Wagner.
One could probably argue that because defending your position take less troops than attacking he was able to make the Wagner forces redundant and therefore took away Prighozins power and that alone allowed Putin to be successful.
I wonder if Wagner troops were personally loyal to Pirgozhin. If so, what is stopping them from driving to Moscow right now and launching a 2nd coup, this time with revenge as motivation?
If they were only loyal to the money, well they'll just go away like dry leaves in the wind.
I guess it would depend on your spin. My view would be this helps him cp solid ate some power. He’s gotten rid of a pest, and if the reports are accurate, gotten rid of some generals and staff who he thinks were a problem. In this respect he’s perhaps hung onto his power, or pushed his detractors a bit more underground.
The opposite view is this makes him look more scared and weak. He also has (we assume) alienated Wagner which were some of the most hardened troops he had. He also has potentially made more enemies in the military who will now bide their time. They can easily say “he did that too _____, he can do that to me” we best stay quiet and work from behind the scenes. Like a certain orange leader, he has, from our outside view, surrounded himself with people who will agree with him and do what he wants. That may not be the best approach as questioning/looking at alternatives typically leads to a better decision. It also may result in his opponent sensing a time to strike while there is confusion and uncertainty.
the problem for all one man dictatorships is military competence is a threat to the dictator, so the upper level purges always end up weakening the military leadership, Stalin all but lost Russia to Germany in '42 due to his evisceration of the general staff, it is to his credit he realised he had to allow Zhukov to become untouchable in order to stabilize the situation and eventually win the war, my guess is we see increasingly incompetent Russian leadership as Putin trys to maintain his weakened hold on power
I wonder if Wagner troops were personally loyal to Pirgozhin. If so, what is stopping them from driving to Moscow right now and launching a 2nd coup, this time with revenge as motivation?
If they were only loyal to the money, well they'll just go away like dry leaves in the wind.
Probably the problem with them losing all their heavy equipment.
They were loyal to the paychecks. They were already starting to leave Belarus before this, likely as a result of pay problems.
I wonder if Wagner troops were personally loyal to Pirgozhin. If so, what is stopping them from driving to Moscow right now and launching a 2nd coup, this time with revenge as motivation?
If they were only loyal to the money, well they'll just go away like dry leaves in the wind.
you would need a charismatic leader for them to coalesce around, a plan beyond 'march to Moscow!!' and Wagner isnt really powerful enough, their one chance failed, it needed regular army to join them
As a revenge killing, this one probably turned out better than Putin expected. It sounds like the fuselage fell mostly intact so Prig and friends would have been violently thrown about the cabin while still having plenty of time to contemplate what was happening. Heck... I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the phone with Putin at the time the bomb/missile got them.
As a revenge killing, this one probably turned out better than Putin expected. It sounds like the fuselage fell mostly intact so Prig and friends would have been violently thrown about the cabin while still having plenty of time to contemplate what was happening. Heck... I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the phone with Putin at the time the bomb/missile got them.
Sadly my guess is the decompression would have killed them pretty well instantly when the missile hit
Last edited by afc wimbledon; 08-24-2023 at 05:18 PM.
I think the way he has been able to clean up Post-Coup leaves him in a much better state than he was pre-coup. That doesn’t mean he played well up to this point. It’s just he handled the point from the coup attempt to now successfully.
His invasion failing led him to have to rely on Wagner to maintain positions which increased Prigohzons power to the point his information people could be openly critical of the MoD. Putin was in a position that he could not just kill Prigozin to eliminate the threat pre-coup. His actions to stop Wagner and absorb it caused the coup.
Essentially for some reason Wagner stopped on the March to Moscow. Was it lack of support, schrewd negotiating, failure to get Nukes, something else, but Putin was able to survive the coup attempt and then able to dismantle Wagner.
One could probably argue that because defending your position take less troops than attacking he was able to make the Wagner forces redundant and therefore took away Prighozins power and that alone allowed Putin to be successful.
I disagree.
Only one commander was able to take a major city: Prigozhin
Only one General was able to make a successful maneuver (pulling out of Kherson and building defensible positions): Surovokin
One is dead and one is detained. The elites see this. Yes it instills fear, but where there's fear there's no loyalty. This is a dangerous time for Putin and everyone can see his pants were pulled down in from of the world. His Africa strategy is now in tatters, the economy is continuing to head down to ruin, and drones are hitting Moscow through their "Air Defense".
Things aren't going to be better for Putin, but I think he had to do it to stay in power
Last edited by Street Pharmacist; 08-24-2023 at 11:32 PM.
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