338Canada just released their projections from aggregate polling data, and the numbers are starting to project an outside chance of CPC majority, the first time in a very long time, with Liberals dropping all the way down to 10% minority as best outcome.
338Canada Odds of outcome
51%▲
CPC min.
38%▲
CPC maj.
10%▼
LPC min.
1%
Tie
Odds of outcome | July 30, 2023
These numbers likely explain the Liberals panic shuffle earlier in the week, hoping that shuffling the wheel around would get Canadians to forget the damage being done by recent Liberal policies that have proved to be disastrous to Canadians.
By these numbers, it is very clear that swing voters have started swinging to the CPC from the Liberal party. It's also clear that the NDP is not picking up these votes. CPC is also being aided by the loss of momentum that PPC had during covid lockdowns. Should the PPC fold before an election, it's likely enough for the CPC to win a majority.
These numbers also show that Singh's NDP-Liberal coalition strategy is backfiring badly on the NDP, with projections seeing them lose even more seats than Singh's abysmal 2021 result. NDP needs a change in strategy fast as the next election could push them back decades in relevancy. No one will think about Singh and his role in getting us a dental plan policy when Canadians can no longer afford rent or their mortgage.
That said CPC polled somewhat similar when the 2021 elections were announced (albeit without such a high majority chance). It remains to be seen if Canadians disenfranchised by the Liberals actually vote CPC
Yeah, it’s still pretty early. But the Abacus numbers at least support the idea of a short-term surge toward the CPC.
My prognostication (based on nothing in particular): This will turn out to be very much like the Alberta election we all just lived through in that it will turn on whether voters view this as a choice vs a referendum. If the CPC can persuade voters that the election is a referendum on the Trudeau government, the Liberals will lose. If Atlantic Canada is really tied, as Abacus suggests, CPC could win a majority.
The Liberals, on the other hand, need to cast this as a “choice” election, and (much like Danielle Smith was able to do) try to portray the CPC as an unpalatable choice vis a vis the median voter’s values. If they can do that they stand a chance of hanging on to a slim majority, but… that’s far from certain. I’m also guessing “Trudeau fatigue” creates some pretty strong headwinds for the incumbents.
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It’s a pretty stupid, dim-witted view that negotiating with another leader to get deals made makes you their lapdog.
The CPC supporters are aggrieved because they think that this effectively gives Trudeau a majority. It's nothing more than that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan
Yeah, it’s still pretty early. But the Abacus numbers at least support the idea of a short-term surge toward the CPC.
My prognostication (based on nothing in particular): This will turn out to be very much like the Alberta election we all just lived through in that it will turn on whether voters view this as a choice vs a referendum. If the CPC can persuade voters that the election is a referendum on the Trudeau government, the Liberals will lose. If Atlantic Canada is really tied, as Abacus suggests, CPC could win a majority.
The Liberals, on the other hand, need to cast this as a “choice” election, and (much like Danielle Smith was able to do) try to portray the CPC as an unpalatable choice vis a vis the median voter’s values. If they can do that they stand a chance of hanging on to a slim majority, but… that’s far from certain. I’m also guessing “Trudeau fatigue” creates some pretty strong headwinds for the incumbents.
From the perspective of chaos and teaching the CPC about how our system works, I think my hope is that the CPC gets a minority and the most seats, but the Liberals and NDP form a government. When PP doesn't get first crack as I'm sure they feel that they're entitled, it would just be so hilarious.
At the same time, I won't actually be voting for that, but I just want the comedy.
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I think the Liberals had a chance of winning back voters with the cabinet reshuffle and some common sense approach to the issues that Canadians are struggling with.
It's going to be about housing, which party can solve this issue.
And Trudeau fatigue and Trudeau's record. Considering a 2025 election, what has the Trudeau government achieved in 10 years?
They've kept the neo-Liberal status quo, not much changed there as seen in climbing inflation and housing bubble.
They introduced carbon pricing and that's in our everyday language now, that's good.
Raised CCB (Canada Child Benefit), that's good.
Childcare? $10 a day? Eh, not sure. Seems clumsy
Dental care the same.
what else? good or bad?
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I still think polling numbers are fairly meaningless predictors of who will form the next government until there has actually been an election called (or at least it becomes clear that there will be an election shortly).
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Get him out yesterday. The polls will only get worse for them as goes the economy.
I think he will have to call an early election and try more games to cling to power.
Get him out yesterday. The polls will only get worse for them as goes the economy.
I think he will have to call an early election and try more games to cling to power.
If things are looking worse and worse for the LPC then why wouldn't the CPC want to wait 12 months and then win by a slam dunk?
Trudeau created the position of the Minister of Housing and Diversity in 2019 after the 2019 election as part of their Forward - A real plan for the middle class. This put the word housing in the cabinet.
A Place to Call Home
We will make it easier for more people to buy
their first home.
For many young people starting their careers,
saving up enough to make a down payment on
a home is a far-off dream – and for ten years,
Stephen Harper’s Conservatives did nothing to
address this growing problem.
Trudeau ran the exact same pledge in 2021's election about affordable housing, rehashing the same 2015 slogan.
Has Trudeau given up and trying to steer the party away from an untenable promise? Guess after 8 years it's no longer possible to blame Harper?
His answer at 16:00 when asked about the significant of announcing...214 units which will made available primarily to nurses, at 1400$ a month.
