Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Exactly!!!!


Is child labour used in artisanal cobalt mining an EV is worse than oil and gas problem or a global issue that isn't specific to EV battery production?

C'mon now.

https://www.google.com/search?q=chil...t=gws-wiz-serp

Versus

https://www.google.com/search?q=chil...t=gws-wiz-serp

Even the google links when searching "child labour oil and gas" largely refute your claim. Unicef even acknowledges it in this report of oil and gas impact on children

https://media.business-humanrights.o...r_19012015.pdf

The use of child labour in large-scale industrial oil and gas activity is relatively rare and usually confined
to the supply chain – and the public commitments that oil and gas companies make to the management
of child labour creates a sense that this is the only child-related agenda in the oil and gas sector.

Child labour on the other hand is most definitely a systemic problem in mining, and very prominent in cobalt and lithium mining. So much so that The US department of labour specifically targets it.

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/re...ms_per_page=10

https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/re...-ion-batteries

You chose quite literally the sole example available via a focused search, Syria, which employs state-sponsored child labour, to try to make a fallacious (and frankly irresponsible) argument about the oil and gas industry as a whole that simply isn't true.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Wormius

To be fair, if I am planning on staying put, the value of my house could go to zero. The only negative would be trying to borrow against your house.

As long as you don't have a mortgage that might cause issues? But there are other considerations. People use that equity to start businesses and other ventures that they otherwise might have a difficult time getting funding for. People generally "feel" better when a large asset isn't down by double-digits, and that ripples through the economy. It's tough from a wider view, but of course if you're where you want to be and aren't moving it's not as relevant.

[PeteMoss]

Arguing about child labour in mining when comparing mineral extraction vs oil is classic Motte and Bailey arguing.

[calgarygeologist]

The new Ministerial roles at the federal level:
http://www.pm.gc.ca/en/news/news-rel...anges-ministry

Please lord let Canada be free of major emergencies in the immediate future.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1684293556008099842

https://twitter.com/user/status/1683462060758147072

[#-3]

Originally Posted by Wormius

To be fair, if I am planning on staying put, the value of my house could go to zero. The only negative would be trying to borrow against your house.

Your statement has the ring of truth to it, if the majority of home owners didn't have large mortgages to service. The advantage of owning is your cost of housing should go down relative to inflation over time, house was worth $500k 10 years ago when bought, I would have a $2500 monthly mortgage, today it's worth $600k a home owner would have a $3000 mortgage, housing inflation causes the current owner to have more buying power relative to the average new home owner now, without inflation your spending power doesn't improve relative to others in the market for things you might want to buy.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by #-3

Your statement has the ring of truth to it, if the majority of home owners didn't have large mortgages to service. The advantage of owning is your cost of housing should go down relative to inflation over time, house was worth $500k 10 years ago when bought, I would have a $2500 monthly mortgage, today it's worth $600k a home owner would have a $3000 mortgage, housing inflation causes the current owner to have more buying power relative to the average new home owner now, without inflation your spending power doesn't improve relative to others in the market for things you might want to buy.

And rightly or wrongly, every homeowner is acutely aware of their home sale price and includes it in their net worth.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Slava

I see what you're trying to get at, but to me the housing issue is next to impossible for a government. It's basically

"we should really do something about the cost of housing and make things more affordable"

"great idea! So, you're cool with the value of your place dropping by ~20-30%?"

It's just a non-starter for current homeowners, for pretty obvious reasons.

I don’t see why people should be outraged at a 20 per cent drop in the value of their home if it has gone up 20 per cent in the last few years. People in for the long haul would shrug it off. It’s mostly the investors and flippers who would get burned. And they deserve to get burned.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

And rightly or wrongly, every homeowner is acutely aware of their home sale price and includes it in their net worth.

I guess I’m unusual, then. I have no idea what my net worth is. The only time I had to calculate it was getting my mortgage. I plan to live in my house for a long time, so don’t really care if it’s value goes up or down. And if people are buying in the same market they’re selling in, I don’t see why they would care either - your home is worth 20 per cent less, and the new place you’re moving into costs 20 per cent less. It’s a wash.

This idea that’s taken root in the last 30 or 40 years in this country that your home is an investment that you use a piggy back or loan collateral is part of the problem. Soaring home valuations have made Canadians feel richer and spend more. We’ve gone from being much more frugal than Americans to far more spendthrift. Real estate speculation in Canada has also sucked investment out of other sectors, contributing to the country’s lagging productivity.

It would hurt to pop the bubble. Be we’d be better off in a lot of respects.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1685058067845591040

[Fuzz]

A three-member electoral boundaries commission for Alberta has released its final report, showing how it massaged three additional House of Commons seats into the province's electoral map.


As part of a process that repeats each decade, the commission was tasked with splitting Alberta into 37 districts of roughly equal population, while trying to group together communities with common interests.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...921760?cmp=rss


Map viewer:
https://redecoupage-redistribution-2...=en-ca&prov=ab

[White Out 403]

Singh is the worst NDP leader in my lifetime as an adult. A traitor to the working class.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Singh is the worst NDP leader in my lifetime as an adult. A traitor to the working class.

He’s also accomplished more for Canadians and had the biggest direct influence on policy out of any NDP leader. So, trade offs… I guess.

[White Out 403]

Go on. I'm willing to learn.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by White Out 403

Go on. I'm willing to learn.

Why don’t you explain how you came to that conclusion?

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

He’s also accomplished more for Canadians and had the biggest direct influence on policy out of any NDP leader. So, trade offs… I guess.

It’s a special few that look to vote for a leader to be a lap dog of another leader.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Yoho

It’s a special few that look to vote for a leader to be a lap dog of another leader.

It’s a pretty stupid, dim-witted view that negotiating with another leader to get deals made makes you their lapdog.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Wormius

It’s a pretty stupid, dim-witted view that negotiating with another leader to get deals made makes you their lapdog.

Uh, while normally I'd agree I'd wager that 'it depends.'

If you get some of your policies implemented out of the deal that otherwise you wouldnt have gotten then its a good partnership.

However...if you just 'blindly support' then....you're kind of in 'lapdog' territory.

I dont think Singh's actually gotten much out of this so far.

I do like the willingness to cooperate, we definitely need more of that in politics.

[Firebot]

338Canada just released their projections from aggregate polling data, and the numbers are starting to project an outside chance of CPC majority, the first time in a very long time, with Liberals dropping all the way down to 10% minority as best outcome.

https://338canada.com/federal.htm

338Canada Odds of outcome
51%▲
CPC min.
38%▲
CPC maj.
10%▼
LPC min.
1%
Tie
Odds of outcome | July 30, 2023

These numbers likely explain the Liberals panic shuffle earlier in the week, hoping that shuffling the wheel around would get Canadians to forget the damage being done by recent Liberal policies that have proved to be disastrous to Canadians.

By these numbers, it is very clear that swing voters have started swinging to the CPC from the Liberal party. It's also clear that the NDP is not picking up these votes. CPC is also being aided by the loss of momentum that PPC had during covid lockdowns. Should the PPC fold before an election, it's likely enough for the CPC to win a majority.

These numbers also show that Singh's NDP-Liberal coalition strategy is backfiring badly on the NDP, with projections seeing them lose even more seats than Singh's abysmal 2021 result. NDP needs a change in strategy fast as the next election could push them back decades in relevancy. No one will think about Singh and his role in getting us a dental plan policy when Canadians can no longer afford rent or their mortgage.

That said CPC polled somewhat similar when the 2021 elections were announced (albeit without such a high majority chance). It remains to be seen if Canadians disenfranchised by the Liberals actually vote CPC

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Locke

Uh, while normally I'd agree I'd wager that 'it depends.'

If you get some of your policies implemented out of the deal that otherwise you wouldnt have gotten then its a good partnership.

However...if you just 'blindly support' then....you're kind of in 'lapdog' territory.

I dont think Singh's actually gotten much out of this so far.

I do like the willingness to cooperate, we definitely need more of that in politics.

He got daycare and a low income dental plan of his significant planks. That’s not bad.