2023/2024 Trade Rumors and Speculation Thread

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Poe969

If the Flames draft a #1C... here's the problem: you won't usually draft a #1C out of the top 5 for the most part, keeping Lindholm will make the team not bad enough to draft that low.

You can't keep him and still be bad enough to draft top 5. Signing Lindholm keeps the Flames drafting around 15.

Unless it’s Bergeron, Point, Thompson, Larkin, Pavelski, Kuznetsov, Suzuki, Kyrou, Zibanejad, Zegras, Barzal, Eriksson Ek, Scheiffele, Aho.

Half the 1Cs in the league are outside of the top 10 (and admittedly not all are great 1Cs).

[bigrangy]

I wouldn’t think there’s any reason not to expect Lindholm to provide at least a Backlund level impact until he’s as old as Backlund is now and perhaps for another year. So a 6 year deal keeps him until he’s as old as Backlund is now, it’d be just two years afterwards that are maybe questionable. I’d have no problem paying $8.5 in 2029s probable cap for what Backlund did this year.

I don’t see signing Lindholm as a huge loss. Would prefer to trade him for a young impact piece but for a late first, b prospect, etc, I’d rather keep him and then spend assets to dump Kadri in 3 years.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by iloveicedhockey

Has anyone seen Sec?

Actually, never.... is Sec214 a bot?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by flamesgod

Because he’s only played centre for 2.5 seasons is exactly why I think he’s just going to continue to get better. It seems the style of centre Lindholm is seems to age well. Look at Bergeron and Backlund. Bergeron’ career year came at 33, Backlund’s at 34. Lindholm will probably age very well, and I predict his game is going to rise for at least 5 more years.

I don't entirely disagree, but again that's taking on a lot of risk because it's not the norm.

If we do lock in Lindy, the Flames need to find the next Gaudreau and Tkachuk (Marchand and Pastrnak?) in order to compete. You cite Bergeron's career year, but that was unlocked thanks to getting Pasta and Marchand going off at near or actual 100 point clips.

Bergeron's career year in 2018/2019 also accounted for 8.6% of that year's salary cap. Lindholm at $9M would account for 10.3% of an $87.5M cap (speculation of a $4M lift in 24/25) - and that's pretty comparable to Bergeron's contract structure at the time of his signing. In the year Bergeron signed, his deal accounted for 10.69% of the salary cap.

So in my eyes, the math to justify Lindholm at that rate is the Flames banking on him being the next Bergeron. The age/% of salary cap of these contracts for these players is nearly identical, so the justification is there more than I would have thought. Perhaps it's not the worst idea if you truly believe Lindy is the heir apparent to Bergeron.

...and one last thought, I believe it's worth noting that while he'll go down as one of the all time bests - the Bruins could not draft/develop around him well enough to win a Stanley Cup with him on their roster taking that % of cap during those years. That's not a critique on Bergeron, but more on the difficulties of building a team when you don't get the chance to load up on young, truly elite talent.

Lindholm at that cap hit for 8 years is the Flames saying they believe he's the next Bergeron, and that's the best case scenario in my eyes. If that best case scenario plays out and Lindholm does deliver to Bergeron's level, does having that player/that contract allow them the opportunity to build a Championship team around him?

[traptor]

So far vladar, hanifin and toffoli seem like the most imminent to move.
If the flames re-sign lindy and decide to go into the season with backlund and tanev we would have something like:


Huberdeau - lindy - mang
Dube - kadri - X(coronato? UFA?)
pelletier - backlund - coleman
X - ruzicka - duehr

Weeger-andersson
Kylington-tanev
Zadorov-stretcher

Markstorm
Wolf

This doesn't look like a contender. It looks like a wildcard team
It's a worse team then last year by losing your top scorer and a top 4D. You're putting alot of reliance on some wildcards all these guys bouncing back, kylingtin not missing a step, rookie coach making a seamless transition and some young guys stepping up big.

It also isn't a team that will bottom out.
This direction will leave us in purgatory.

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Unless it’s Bergeron, Point, Thompson, Larkin, Pavelski, Kuznetsov, Suzuki, Kyrou, Zibanejad, Zegras, Barzal, Eriksson Ek, Scheiffele, Aho.

Half the 1Cs in the league are outside of the top 10 (and admittedly not all are great 1Cs).

Other then Bergeron non of those players is good enough to lead a team to the cup.

Most of them you want to be the 3rd or 4th best player on the team

Even point is 3rd or 4th best (not including the goalie) on a Stanley Cup winning team

And that actually demonstrates the point . You need superstars and it’s very very hard to find a superstar outside of the top picks , especially a Center superstar

[Strange Brew]

I really don't think Lindholm is that easy to project. His games at C, when he wasn't between Tkachuk and Gaudreau is not a huge sample size. Nor was it his very best hockey.

But I still think $8.5 AAV is a good bet for the club.

But I do think there is something to the idea that Huberdeau, Kadri, Lindholm may not be a great fir or have the best relationship. You would be hitching your wagon to those three for a long time and even if the club is kind of rebuilding through some of their contracts, you need some players you can count on for leadership and creating a good environment for younger players. That's just speculation though, maybe they are all great buds.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by Buff

Actually, never.... is Sec214 a bot?

[shotinthebacklund]

Originally Posted by Sec214

Technically, those are droids. But a bot would know that

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Sec214

Those ARE the droids I’m looking for!

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Unless it’s Bergeron, Point, Thompson, Larkin, Pavelski, Kuznetsov, Suzuki, Kyrou, Zibanejad, Zegras, Barzal, Eriksson Ek, Scheiffele, Aho.

Half the 1Cs in the league are outside of the top 10 (and admittedly not all are great 1Cs).

Zibanejad and Scheifele were both drafted in the top 10.

These centers as a whole are quite a bit worse than the centers who were drafted in the top 10.

But if your point is that you can get a passable top line center outside the top 10, then I would agree.

[Ashes]

I'm remaining hopeful that Conroy is waiting until the last possible moment to drive the prices up for the UFA's. However with now just one day to go until the draft begins.. I'll be ecstatic with even ONE extra 1st rounder, surely to F we can pull that off with all these pending UFA's.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I don't entirely disagree, but again that's taking on a lot of risk because it's not the norm.

If we do lock in Lindy, the Flames need to find the next Gaudreau and Tkachuk (Marchand and Pastrnak?) in order to compete. You cite Bergeron's career year, but that was unlocked thanks to getting Pasta and Marchand going off at near or actual 100 point clips.

Bergeron's career year in 2018/2019 also accounted for 8.6% of that year's salary cap. Lindholm at $9M would account for 10.3% of an $87.5M cap (speculation of a $4M lift in 24/25) - and that's pretty comparable to Bergeron's contract structure at the time of his signing. In the year Bergeron signed, his deal accounted for 10.69% of the salary cap.

So in my eyes, the math to justify Lindholm at that rate is the Flames banking on him being the next Bergeron. The age/% of salary cap of these contracts for these players is nearly identical, so the justification is there more than I would have thought. Perhaps it's not the worst idea if you truly believe Lindy is the heir apparent to Bergeron.

...and one last thought, I believe it's worth noting that while he'll go down as one of the all time bests - the Bruins could not draft/develop around him well enough to win a Stanley Cup with him on their roster taking that % of cap during those years. That's not a critique on Bergeron, but more on the difficulties of building a team when you don't get the chance to load up on young, truly elite talent.

Lindholm at that cap hit for 8 years is the Flames saying they believe he's the next Bergeron, and that's the best case scenario in my eyes. If that best case scenario plays out and Lindholm does deliver to Bergeron's level, does having that player/that contract allow them the opportunity to build a Championship team around him?

If the only justification for signing Lindholm is him being comparable to Bergeron, trade him yesterday.

Lindholm is a very good player, but he isn't that close to Bergeron, a HOF player. The intangibles that Bergeron brings (and I'm not usually a big intangible guy) is just to immense to ignore.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Ashes

I'm remaining hopeful that Conroy is waiting until the last possible moment to drive the prices up for the UFA's. However with now just one day to go until the draft begins.. I'll be ecstatic with even ONE extra 1st rounder, surely to F we can pull that off with all these pending UFA's.

If the Flames have Lindholm or Hanifin on the market at 50% retained, GM’s would be tripping over themselves.

I don’t think Conroy will have to wait for the last moment. GM’s around the league won’t only be negotiating with the Flsmes, they’ll be bidding against one another. The Flames should be in the drivers seat here. Conry may choose to wait as you put it, but if I were in his shoes I would be saying ‘best offer today by X, otherwise we start trimming the field’.

I think today is the day we start seeing some movement across the league. Teams may want to acquire assets in advance of the draft so they can have the option to flip those assets. Waiting until the very last moment can be limiting in certain respects.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Are really going to go back in time and try to argue that the line was Gaudreau - Lindholm - Monahan?

Because it wasn't.

No, but we’re also not going to go back in time and argue that Lindholm was acquired as a RW for us.

Unless you want to pretend that wingers sometimes take the most faceoffs of anyone on the team and play centre in defensive situations including the PK.

[Major Major]

I'd actually tell teams that you know that the day to maximize interest league wide is July 1 since that's when they can sign on the dotted line and that the most attractive trade is retain 50% on year one sealed with an 8 year extension. Let teams know that at that point, they are in a mele to get these guys (Lindholm and Hanifin), plus, who knows... We might even keep Lindholm!

BUT, if you want to make us a godfather deal on draft day and preempt all that uncertainty, go ahead and blow us away.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by TOfan

If the Flames have Lindholm or Hanifin on the market at 50% retained, GM’s would be tripping over themselves.

I don’t think Conroy will have to wait for the last moment. GM’s around the league won’t only be negotiating with the Flames, they’ll be bidding against one another. The Flames should be in the drivers seat here. Conroy may choose to wait as you put it, but if I were in his shoes I would be saying "best offer today by X, otherwise we start trimming the field".

I think today is the day we start seeing some movement across the league. Teams may want to acquire assets in advance of the draft so they can have the option to flip those assets. Waiting until the very last moment can be limiting in certain respects.

I doubt the Flames have Lindholm and Hanifin on at 50% cap.

Although I can see them taking some cap back to accomodate a deal.

And I don't think that the Flames are in the drivers seat here, Lindholm and Hanifin are. If they aren't willing to negotiate a new contract with the acquiring team, the price goes down. And for some teams, they may simply not be interested in rentals. And it looks like lots of players who are UFA's in a years time are negotiating based on a huge increase next year in the cap, and adding that into their request.

[Matty81]

Lindholm would be a core piece for another 7 years if he re-signs. I like the way the Flames are playing it here, working on a deal with him and sounding out the market. Best position to be in is having both of those as legitimate options.

Then if Columbus offers you #3 as part of a bigger deal, or something crazy like that, you can jump at it, but if the offers are for B level prospects like some of the former 2nd rounder names being discussed from Detroit who look like mid lineup upside players, or real late 1sts, I think he's worth more to the franchise staying and helping bring along the next generation coming in, especially if Backlund is going.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

No, but we’re also not going to go back in time and argue that Lindholm was acquired as a RW for us.

Unless you want to pretend that wingers sometimes take the most faceoffs of anyone on the team and play centre in defensive situations including the PK.

This is accurate.

I had Lindholm on my fantasy team that year. Face offs are a stat in the league I play in. Having a RW win the number of draws he did that year helped me win the league, and a new BBQ.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by TOfan

Sounds like a potential cap nightmare in 4-5 years if all those guys come up at the same time and are playing well.

Would also have quite a few holes to plug in your roster between now and then if you’re sending out 5 players and only taking one (Granlund) back. Perhaps Coronato can take one spot but doesn’t sound like Zary or Piorier are particularly ready from what I’ve heard people close to the team say. Maybe Ruzika? But, as a manager, you also have to be mindful of your minor league teams, do there’s holes there to fill also if the plan is to graduate AHL players who may not even be ready for NHL mins.

So, you’re either looking to fill those spots by trading assets for NHL players or signing UFA’s which is terribly out of fashion.

I’m not against the principle here but I think it’s more realistic to gain a pick, or two, at this years draft and make some other moves over the course of the season for the 2024 draft. You may also need to take money back, specifically this year due to the modest cap increase. That’s fine so long as the returning players have 1-2 years left. You still need an NHL roster, not an NHL/AHL roster.

I don’t really see it a as a problem if a bunch of young guys popped at the same time. It sounds like a very good problem to have.

I agree that it is much more likely for a trade or two to happen at this draft for the flames that might get them another first round pick and then maybe acquire another first in next years draft later on… that is the typical rebuild schedule. That’s what you usually see from teams and we are much more likely to see from the flames if they go full rebuild.

However, the flames have an opportunity that is very unique and you don’t see this happen very often. I can’t remember that last time any team had this many quality players that could all likely be traded in such a short amount of time and they were all at reasonable cap hits. The closest one to being overpaid is Backlund and he is not really overpaid for what he brings - plus half of his salary could be retained to increase his value. Not to mention the fact that the free agent class is very weak this year. All this adds up to the flames having a rare opportunity to hopefully collect a lot of quality picks in this draft.

If the flames managed to pull off what I proposed and had up to five first round picks in this draft, they could end up speeding up the rebuild a bit. That would be 5 guys from the first round of a highly touted draft with a year of development while the flames are “bottoming out” next season. You’re right the the roster would look very thin for this season which likely leads to a high pick in 2024.

My thought would be… multiple picks in the mid-first round of the 2023 draft + a top 5 pick (the flames own pick) in the 2024 draft could make the turn around a lot faster. That has the makings of a completely new young core in the span of 2 years instead of 4-5 years. Obviously you have to hit well on those picks but this all depends on trusting that your scouts have a good read on these prospects and having the proper development of these young players.


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