Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[surferguy]

Originally Posted by eddly

I mean they are negatively targeting the industry that I am in (not oil&gas). Their actions while in power previously had partial influence on my job loss. We had two straight years of horrific losses which I would say was at least 15 to 20% due to the NDP.

All good though, thankfully I was able to get a better job a little over a month later... but the stress was significant. I wasn't the only one that lost their job during the NDP's time in power.

15-20% is not enough to lay blame on them. They were dealt a ####ty card with world oil prices. Flip that around 80-85% of the reason for your job loss was not the provincial governments fault. I can fully understand your hesitation but try and not let that be a barrier.

That said based on your wording above, maybe you are an accountant for the UCP war room… if that’s the case then you are gonna be kinda stuffed.

[eddly]

Again, great points made by many.

Yes I want to support my kids who are committed to voting ndp.

Yes, my career is likely secure enough at this point to get through economic turmoil if there is some. I should be ok with some uncertainty.

Yes, I am a small business owner on top of my day job.

Yes… I would feel more despair if UCP won compared to NDP.

Not a fan of the attack approach NDP has taken… and the just trust me, at least I’m not Danielle Smith approach.

The poo comment is horrific and Danielle Smith has backtracked saying she wants to give a second chance to the candidate spewing the hate speech.

Anyway have a good night everyone and weekend.

[eddly]

Originally Posted by surferguy

15-20% is not enough to lay blame on them. They were dealt a ####ty card with world oil prices. Flip that around 80-85% of the reason for your job loss was not the provincial governments fault. I can fully understand your hesitation but try and not let that be a barrier.

That said based on your wording above, maybe you are an accountant for the UCP war room… if that’s the case then you are gonna be kinda stuffed.

Haha no, don’t work for the ucp. My neighbour does though.

[mikephoen]

I appreciate that you're willing to talk and listen to people on this eddly. Despite what some people have said, I think you're being genuine and actually are undecided.

I don't want to pile on, but one thing I think is important to highlight concerning the NDP's plan to raise corporate tax rates by 3% is that they have a plan to raise revenue to pay for the many things we need in the province. Our healthcare system is in trouble, and we need more money for that, and all the other infrastructure.

Not voting for NDP raises the chances of a UCP win. What is the UCP plan for paying for healthcare and all the other stuff we need tax dollars for? It appears to be 'hope the price of oil stays high, or goes even higher!'. They don't have any other plan. That's why they ran huge deficits under Kenny. When the oil price is low, they have no plan. The whole province needs a plan to succeed when oil prices are low. And they will be low again. The only thing the UCP can do then is run huge deficits and cut services.

You say you lost your job when the NDP was in power last time. Was that really because the NDP was in power, or was it because the oil price plummeted just as they came into power? I don't know your exact circumstances, but if oil stayed above $80 would your job really have been in jeopardy?

[#-3]

Originally Posted by eddly

This is just a few of the issues on my mind.

I can't fully support the NDP's economic direction. What the NDP is proposing is simplistic from what I have seen. Raise corporate taxes. Lower insurance rates.

What happens if corporate taxes are raised?

Why are insurance rates high? What happens if they are lowered?

I guess I just want these two things explained further in terms of why they reached the solution they are proposing and what impact they think it will have.

There are several reasons why insurance rates are increasing and it isn't simply because of inflation. Claims are more frequent and severe. Your car... your house... they are more expensive to replace compared to 10 years ago. Catastrophic events like wild fires are more frequent. Even if these events occur in the US for example, it still raises the cost of your insurance. Insurance companies get reinsurance to protect themselves to a degree. This reinsurance they are required to buy (regulation) is increasing in cost dramatically.

NDP's playbook is to tax the rich into submission with the expectation that they will gladly take it.

Of course, I could spend just as much time complaining about the UCP. UCP doesn't have the answers either. I won't even entertain UCP with them calling transgender children poo.

I really hope this doesn't feel like an unwanted interrogation that is going to scare you away from this forum, because I feel the conversation you've started brings a lot of value. But I guess I would pose done questions

Sucks you lost your job in 2015, it was a hard time for Alberta in general. You don't honestly believe the global down turn in oil was caused by the NDP do you, seems like a very well correlation.

Do you see a more positive economic vision or of the other parties, with the UCP it seems they are terrified to raise revenue and have no problem spending money on anything that lands in there right side of their manufactured culture war. Hardly a vision for balancing the budget beyond the one per decade boom.

Bashing the NDP for wanting to go 75% of the way back to former tax rates, while still maintaining lower taxes than the rest of Canada and lower taxes than the PCs ever had doesn't seem to add up to this eat the rich philosophy.

I'm truth this version of the NDP has been in government, and they showed themselves to be more economically conservative than pretty much any government we have had in the past 25 years, except maybe Prentice. If you're truly and economic conservative you should be running towards a Notley lead party.

[surferguy]

Originally Posted by eddly

Again, great points made by many.

Yes I want to support my kids who are committed to voting ndp.

Yes, my career is likely secure enough at this point to get through economic turmoil if there is some. I should be ok with some uncertainty.

Yes, I am a small business owner on top of my day job.

Yes… I would feel more despair if UCP won compared to NDP.

Not a fan of the attack approach NDP has taken… and the just trust me, at least I’m not Danielle Smith approach.

The poo comment is horrific and Danielle Smith has backtracked saying she wants to give a second chance to the candidate spewing the hate speech.

Anyway have a good night everyone and weekend.

It kinda feels like you are ready to mark an X but you just need to convince yourself that it is ok to do so.

Just so you know, it’s ok to do so.

[eddly]

Yes I definitely didn’t create this account almost 21 years ago to finally troll you guys in 2023.

[eddly]

Originally Posted by surferguy

It kinda feels like you are ready to mark an X but you just need to convince yourself that it is ok to do so.

Just so you know, it’s ok to do so.

Definitely. Is it ok to support the provincial NDP party but hate the federal NDP party? I know the answer, they don’t see eye to eye with each other.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by eddly

So be it. I’m not voting for one party to block another. While I support the NDP’s stance on social issues, there are still many other issues that go against what is important to me.

Even if the NDP were to change their party name… further distance themselves from the federal NDP party… that wouldn’t change anything.

Nenshi released a good article recently which discussed how many conservative leaning voters feel that I can relate to.

https://westobserver.com/news/canada...ibextid=Zxz2cZ

Nenshi supporting NDP doesn’t move the needle for me.

I have talked to a lot of UCP voters. A lot of them are claiming to be voting for their local candidate instead of Danielle Smith. I’m also hearing that they are banking on Danielle Smith being pushed out by her party shortly after the election… or of course vote UCP to block the NDP.

Vote for one of the smaller parties? Just a waste of time.

It’s unfortunate you can’t get to the point of deciding to vote for better democratic norms regardless of platform. However by not voting it’s still one less vote for the UCP then last time so you are still part of the solution.

Remind your friends that TBA now controls most of the riding associations so terming Smith does not in any way suggest you get a reasonable leader. Toews and Schultz didn’t win last time why would they win this time. TBA controlling ridings that elect conservative MLAs means it will be difficult to get rid of her because she will have strong control of the caucus.

[eddly]

Originally Posted by #-3

Sucks you lost your job in 2015, it was a hard time for Alberta in general. You don't honestly believe the global down turn in oil was caused by the NDP do you, seems like a very well correlation.

NDP didn’t cause the downturn just as the UCP didn’t reverse it.

NDP just didn’t do enough to limit the damage… with the limited influence they could have had. I recognize that they tried to some degree, but likely suffered from the contradictory messaging from the federal NDP party which may have contributed to some investment not coming to Alberta (and some leaving).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I’m thinking eddly is just another Slava. Pretends to be middle but is actually someone desperately trying to justify their continued UCP vote however possible. Looking for any available cover.

These are the people that are deciding this election.

[Cube Inmate]

Originally Posted by eddly

Good post.

How did you reach the decision that Rachel Notley could be trusted? How did she earn your trust? Were you happy with what her party delivered while she was previously in power?

Not directed at me but I can answer. I honestly think the 2015 NDP victory can be called an "accidental majority." Nobody foresaw that happening until things broke strangely in the late stages of the campaign. As a result, the party was not ready to govern. They didn't have the members with experience in government, or even in the official opposition, and they made some rookie mistakes as a result. I mean, my MLA was a university kid who ran to have "candidate" on his resume. They weren't ready.

I believe 4 years in government plus 4 more in official opposition will improve that. They are more practical and less likely to do things where they "mean well" but don't understand the impacts (think royalty review).

On the trust thing? This one is completely about Smith. She wants us to believe that everything she said in the media was just for show. Don't listen to what I said then...I was in entertainment! But we know she is a dyed-on-the-skin libertarian (see her tattoo for more on this) and I believe that what she said then is far more authentic than what she says now. They're "not campaigning on" the Alberta pension plan or provincial police (but we're not disavowing the ideas). The Pawlowski call and associated advocacy is unforgiveable. Ultimately, she has clearly demonstrated untrustworthiness. And that's not even touching on her lack of understanding of her job (pardons???)

I know I'm not telling you why Notley has earned my trust, which was your question. But even if you start from a default position of considering both to be "unproven," it's clear from 2 decades of political and media actions that one of them is a proven flip-flopper. And opportunistic floor-crosser.

I have unease about the NDP's close relationship with unions (see Lou Arab) because I find many unions' leadership is less than upstanding. But it's less worrisome to me to have a union supporter in the top job than to have someone with a long history of acting deceptively.

I appreciate you continuing to engage on this.

Link for tattoo reference: https://nationalpost.com/news/canada...an-libertarian

[topfiverecords]

It’s scary to think of the state healthcare will be in this province should the UCP win. Not because of privatization and budget cuts, but because of the steady emigration of healthcare workers as they take opportunities in other provinces/countries.

[Flames0910]

Originally Posted by eddly

Definitely. Is it ok to support the provincial NDP party but hate the federal NDP party? I know the answer, they don’t see eye to eye with each other.

OMG yes, one million percent. I can't even believe this is a question lol. I would absolutely count myself in that camp. Jagmeet is not a serious leader in any way, shape or form.

Rachel Notley, on the other hand, very clearly is.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

While Quito Maggi is predicting the NDP to win in a nail-biter, EKOS is predicting the UCP will wind up ahead and win a majority on the strength of a 6% lead in the Calgary CMA:

https://www.ekospolitics.com/index.p...ce-in-alberta/

Both agree it will be very close. And at least EKOS is showing its work, so there’s that. I haven’t seen what Maggi’s looking at other than the Mainstreet tracker (which still shows the UCP ahead, albeit narrowly.

New Abacus poll will be out after the weekend apparently.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

It’s scary to think of the state healthcare will be in this province should the UCP win. Not because of privatization and budget cuts, but because of the steady emigration of healthcare workers as they take opportunities in other provinces/countries.

I think it will just have the same challenges as every other Province.

What’s scary is how Notley will not stand up to the Federal governments over reach and simply shug her shoulders just like last time.

She’s over her head and the debate proved it.

It’s gross that the attack ads were all from the unions that her husband was union president for.

Instead of trying to beg posters to vote your way realize the NDP have just as many warts.

It’s ok to lose the election it’s not the end of the world.

[Yoho]

Nm

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I’m thinking eddly is just another Slava. Pretends to be middle but is actually someone desperately trying to justify their continued UCP vote however possible. Looking for any available cover.

What do I have to do with this? Just get over the fact that people have different opinions on things and there’s no pretending. I’m not looking for cover to justify anything, because I don’t have to justify my election choices to anyone.

Have you seen the ads the UCP has been running about the difficulty that businesses had during the NDP term? Those are going to be more effective than people are willing to admit here. The NDP is/was far from perfect despite the protestations of many here.

Sure, given the choice between a sprained ankle and blown out knee, I’ll take the sprained ankle. But I’m not thrilled about it. I voted already and voted for the NDP. I’m sure that while I want them to win, I’m going to regret that. I still think it’s the better decision for a lot of reasons, and I’ll just try to remember that when they do bone-headed things in the future.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I think it will just have the same challenges as every other Province.

What’s scary is how Notley will not stand up to the Federal governments over reach and simply shug her shoulders just like last time.

She’s over her head and the debate proved it.

It’s gross that the attack ads were all from the unions that her husband was union president for.

Instead of trying to beg posters to vote your way realize the NDP have just as many warts.

It’s ok to lose the election it’s not the end of the world.

The part where the UCP loses me (well, there an actual many points), is the federal government overreaching. Where has that happened and what has changed between the NDP and UCP administration? I see zero difference there , posturing aside. The only thing that’s made it feel better is the price of energy rebounded further.

[Madman]

We're sure hoping the amount of orange we're seeing down here in Okotoks is a glimmer of common sense. +3 for them from our household.