Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[AltaGuy]

I guess this is what happens when Trudeau's Libs get a little too greedy for that Chinese election money: Canada's conservatives expect war with China in the next ten years.

It's so embarrassingly juvenile and transparent.

Neither Canada nor the US are going to war with China. Mostly because the gravy train flows freely in both directions.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1634313390112776193

Fairly straight forward remarks from Chantal.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

Yes I don’t disagree that the US is the power standing in China’s way of being the primary world power controlling world trade which is their ambition. Now with China’s population in decline this will likely be the last decade or two they will have the ability to do anything about it. Xi himself has indicated the re-integrating Taiwan needs to happen before his reign is over. It just seems highly likely China would make a move for Taiwan this decade, which would kick off a war with the west.

Even in a situation where everything you wrote were granted, there is nothing in it at all that makes for an existential threat to Canada. Nothing.

On the topic at hand, the government needs to take the concerns raised by the leaks and other violations of Canadian laws seriously and to protect Canadian institutions. Those concerns are important, worth investigating and worth cleaning up any illegal activity as well as putting in new protections against anything found, but that's about it. Canada's not facing a threat to its survival in any of this. In reality, it's a relationship with far more pros than cons, not a death match.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

I hope the US keeps this up frankly. We have seen how China honors commitments, namely Hong Kong. Ripping it up when it suited them, because were weak and their strong.

To have an uncontested power like that, and has no shared interest with Canada the way The US does. We would be run over far worse than anything you see today. Add in those police stations would become permanent and public. Or else we will be punished with trade or otherwise.

I cannot see how any Canadian would want that happening.

Look at how the US is growing their presence in that area. They are not backing down at all.

Not sure there will be an actual war, but the US is smart to limit themselves from the exposure to a Chinese overtaking of Taiwan. At the same time we are living through a massive arms race to try and deter any action.

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Even in a situation where everything you wrote were granted, there is nothing in it at all that makes for an existential threat to Canada. Nothing.

On the topic at hand, the government needs to take the concerns raised by the leaks and other violations of Canadian laws seriously and to protect Canadian institutions. Those concerns are important, worth investigating and worth cleaning up any illegal activity as well as putting in new protections against anything found, but that's about it. Canada's not facing a threat to its survival in any of this. In reality, it's a relationship with far more pros than cons, not a death match.

From a Canadian perspective having a dictator in Xi controlling global trade and commerce and having control of the most advanced chips from Taiwan is pretty existential to Canadian / North American life over the long term. Xi’s a dictator that’s not even accountable to his own people let anyone else in the world community.

China already intrudes too far into Canadian interests, it steals our IP, it has attempted to control its diaspora population living in Canada through coercion as evidenced by the stations in many Canadian cities, it’s meddling in our democratic process as evidenced in recent elections. It’s only a net positive relationship when it’s only transactional - Canada sells resources and expertise and China sells back goods manufactured at lower prices than could be attained elsewhere.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

From a Canadian perspective having a dictator in Xi controlling global trade and commerce and having control of the most advanced chips from Taiwan is pretty existential to Canadian / North American life over the long term. Xi’s a dictator that’s not even accountable to his own people let anyone else in the world community.

China already intrudes too far into Canadian interests, it steals our IP, it has attempted to control its diaspora population living in Canada through coercion as evidenced by the stations in many Canadian cities, it’s meddling in our democratic process as evidenced in recent elections. It’s only a net positive relationship when it’s only transactional - Canada sells resources and expertise and China sells back goods manufactured at lower prices than could be attained elsewhere.

Can you explain in some detail what you actually think this looks like and how it comes to pass? I don't see it.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1635340276272189445

[Azure]

Nothing going on here folks. Move along now.

In the space of two days in the summer of 2016, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Montreal riding association received almost $63,000 from donors in Vancouver, Richmond, West Vancouver and Delta.

Almost all of the 41 donations to the Papineau Federal Liberal Association, dated July 6 and 7, 2016, were $1,500 each.

Three came from directors of the Tiger Arms Ltd. Port Coquitlam gun store, including its namesake Rongxiang “Tiger” Yuan, Ke Xiao of Richmond and Peiran Yang of Vancouver. Another $1,500 donation came from Avery H. Chow of Richmond, who replaced Yuan, Xiao and Yang on the Tiger Arms company registration in March 2020.

Elections Canada’s database shows that between October 2014 and September 2016, B.C. donors sent more than $224,000 across the country to Trudeau’s local re-election fund. Eighty-two of those donations, worth $118,774.55, were dated between Aug. 7, 2015 and Oct. 30, 2015 — five days after the start of the federal election campaign and two weeks after Trudeau’s Liberal majority win.

https://biv.com/article/2023/03/cash...-2015-and-2016

[Fuzz]

See? I always new the gun stores were behind big Liberal fundraisers. It's all been a ruse.

[Street Pharmacist]

Honest question, what is the controversial issue here?

In 2016, $1500 was the maximum amount so the amounts don't seem suspicious. He was running as the leader of the Liberal party, so I don't see donations from outside of his riding as being suspicious.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

In the space of two days, a whole bunch of people from one small area of the country, on the other side of the country from where Trudeau was running and soliciting donations, suddenly sent him dozens of max donations, and that doesn't raise any red flags for you? None at all? Just seems totally normal and expected?

It seems pretty likely that, at a minimum, someone funneled a whole bunch of money to him through intermediaries at that time - I do not know if that in itself violates campaign finance rules, but "I see nothing weird about any of this" is just... come on.

[Azure]

It doesn't violate any campaign finance rules at all, and the info is all publicly available.

It just looks seriously suspicious.

[Northendzone]

If that claims is true, the optics look really questionable

it would be really interesting to be a fly on the wall when trudeau meets with telford and whomever else to hear what they discuss in detail, and what telford does not share/the PM does not ask about to protect/insulate the PM

[GGG]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

In the space of two days, a whole bunch of people from one small area of the country, on the other side of the country from where Trudeau was running and soliciting donations, suddenly sent him dozens of max donations, and that doesn't raise any red flags for you? None at all? Just seems totally normal and expected?

It seems pretty likely that, at a minimum, someone funneled a whole bunch of money to him through intermediaries at that time - I do not know if that in itself violates campaign finance rules, but "I see nothing weird about any of this" is just... come on.

That looks like fairly standard quasi-legal campaign donations to buy influence that happens fairly regularly where you get a bunch of families members to contribute the individual amount to get around the cap.

Whether that money came from China would be the question of if it’s relevant here.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Can you explain in some detail what you actually think this looks like and how it comes to pass? I don't see it.

Taiwan has the most advanced chip manufacturing in the world and if China controls that before alternatives come online - they control a very important aspect of the world's economy.

We don't know how or what China does with that power - and companies/countries don't like uncertainty.

Its basically the same reason why the US (and by alliance Canada) care about the middle east - because of all the oil there, that area could impact the world's economy and don't care about Africa or poor areas in other parts of Asia.

[Wormius]

Originally Posted by Azure

It doesn't violate any campaign finance rules at all, and the info is all publicly available.

It just looks seriously suspicious.

Isn’t this basically what happens at those $$$ per plate fundraising dinners where money all flows from a single event? What is suspicious about it?

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Taiwan has the most advanced chip manufacturing in the world and if China controls that before alternatives come online - they control a very important aspect of the world's economy.

We don't know how or what China does with that power - and companies/countries don't like uncertainty.

Its basically the same reason why the US (and by alliance Canada) care about the middle east - because of all the oil there, that area could impact the world's economy and don't care about Africa or poor areas in other parts of Asia.

Yeah, the story being told is pretty similar to the story of the existential threat Saddam posed with his weapons of mass destruction. There are also parallels in the reality that it's about economic benefit and securing of national interest guaranteed through power rather than any true threat.

Really, the whole premise of China seizing control of global chip supply is pretty specious. A war in Taiwan would by no means necessarily gain control of chip manufacturing plants and human capital. It's not like it would be a war on a place like Iraq where the resources to be gained are all sitting there in the ground even if the everything else is destroyed. Also, the machines to enable the advanced chip manufacturing are Dutch. So, even if somehow China got control of TSMC with all the human capital and plant intact, it wouldn't give them control of the critical source of machines and talent needed to stay at the cutting edge.

Also, haven't most of the devices that Canadians use with high-end chips in them been put together in China and shipped from there for years anyways? Didn't this only become a problem when the US started to bring in policies to cut China off from high-end chips?

I think Canada has things it really should care about, like keeping elections as they should be and making sure that everything in Canada goes according to Canadian laws, but fears of an existential threat seem based out of speculation and paranoia. If anything, those fears largely just serve to support an American economic war. This is no Cuban missile crisis on Canada or America's side.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

In the space of two days, a whole bunch of people from one small area of the country, on the other side of the country from where Trudeau was running and soliciting donations, suddenly sent him dozens of max donations, and that doesn't raise any red flags for you? None at all? Just seems totally normal and expected?

It seems pretty likely that, at a minimum, someone funneled a whole bunch of money to him through intermediaries at that time - I do not know if that in itself violates campaign finance rules, but "I see nothing weird about any of this" is just... come on.

I'm not trying to be obtuse here, just understand what's being suggested. Isn't campaign fundraising done by events and solicitations? So wouldn't they naturally be close together if from the same place, especially really close together? I don't think we're talking about random online donations. More likely solicitation by campaigns looking for funding either having a campaign event where they ask or local reps calling for donations. As for being out of his riding, he was running to be Prime Minister. I could be way off and maybe something sneaky is here, but there's lots of very reasonable explanations. I don't even know what normal campaigns raise. Is $60k a lot of money? I dunno

[Fuzz]

JohnnyB, I know it's in your interest to defend China at all costs(and I'm baffled as to why, you seem like an intelligent person), but I say it again, to ignore the threat of China on the geopolitical stage is true folly. You could, for instance, look at the Arctic, where they are trying desperately to leverage some control over it, despite not being an arctic bordering nation, having no land ownership, and there being no neutral unoccupied unclaimed area of the arctic to plant a flag on.

A head of the Polar Research Institute for China, for example, called these kinds of public spaces the “most competitive resource treasures,” China’s National Security Law creates the legal capability to protect China’s rights across them, and top Chinese Communist Party (CCP) officials have suggested China’s share of these resources should be equal to its share of the global population.

They note that, “the game of great powers” will “increasingly focus on the struggle over and control of global public spaces” like the Arctic and Antarctic and argue that China “cannot rule out the possibility of using force” in this coming “scramble for new strategic spaces.”

https://www.brookings.edu/research/n...and-ambitions/

So what, nothing to worry about? They feel entitled to take a share. We need to be prepared to defend ourselves from this.

Read the whole thing, it's worth it for the insight(and not that long).

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

Yeah, the story being told is pretty similar to the story of the existential threat Saddam posed with his weapons of mass destruction. There are also parallels in the reality that it's about economic benefit and securing of national interest guaranteed through power rather than any true threat.

Really, the whole premise of China seizing control of global chip supply is pretty specious. A war in Taiwan would by no means necessarily gain control of chip manufacturing plants and human capital. It's not like it would be a war on a place like Iraq where the resources to be gained are all sitting there in the ground even if the everything else is destroyed. Also, the machines to enable the advanced chip manufacturing are Dutch. So, even if somehow China got control of TSMC with all the human capital and plant intact, it wouldn't give them control of the critical source of machines and talent needed to stay at the cutting edge.

Also, haven't most of the devices that Canadians use with high-end chips in them been put together in China and shipped from there for years anyways? Didn't this only become a problem when the US started to bring in policies to cut China off from high-end chips?

I think Canada has things it really should care about, like keeping elections as they should be and making sure that everything in Canada goes according to Canadian laws, but fears of an existential threat seem based out of speculation and paranoia. If anything, those fears largely just serve to support an American economic war. This is no Cuban missile crisis on Canada or America's side.

The Saddam stuff to me was always linked to 9/11 and America lashing out on the war on terror. I don't see the link. This is more of a Cold War than anything like Iraq.

There isn't going to be an actual war with China unless they invade Taiwan.

You can disagree with the US going after China economically - but its just normal politics. The US wants to be the solo super power. China wants to also be a super power. They have conflicting goals so they are going to logically be at odds. Canada is going to go along with what their giant neighbour and ally wants when its just a economic battle.