Will Flames make the playoffs?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Finger Cookin

The club is not where I'd like them to be in the standings at this point, but they're trending the right way and I think things will come together with it playing it's best hockey of the season just as the season is winding down.

If the Flames get 95 points this year, it will take 44 points and a .594-point percent to finish out the season. Not too bad but IMO the problem is Oiler and Avs are the teams close to them. I have a feeling both are going to out play us down the stretch.

Minnesota, Seattle and LA don't have to play that well to get to 95.

Flames will need to win against the team they are racing and stop choking against teams they should beat.

Next 5

Avs
Lightning
Blue Jackets
Hawks
Kraken (Back-to-Back)

If they lose to the Avs and Edmonton wins toniight they are sitting out of the playoffs with 2 teams just ahead of them that were in the conference finals.

[Finger Cookin]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If the Flames get 95 points this year, it will take 44 points and a .594-point percent to finish out the season. Not too bad but IMO the problem is Oiler and Avs are the teams close to them. I have a feeling both are going to out play us down the stretch.

Minnesota, Seattle and LA don't have to play that well to get to 95.

Flames will need to win against the team they are racing and stop choking against teams they should beat.


If they lose to the Avs and Edmonton wins toniight they are sitting out of the playoffs with 2 teams just ahead of them that were in the conference finals.

You may be right about the .594 being too steep a hill to climb - this is why we watch the games, right? At least partly. To see if the team is up to the challenge? If it can reach its potential. You're definitely right about playing down to the level of teams that are very, very beatable.

Posted just the other day...

Originally Posted by dino7c

2-0-2, .750 on this road trip
6-2-2, .700 in their last 10
8-2-3, .731 in their last 13
11-4-6, .667 in their last 21

These are the stats of a top team, this is 109 to 123 point hockey

A loss occurred since then, but the club is still well above .594 in any of those segments. They have the capability.

[Paulie Walnuts]

I think they make it but this year the west seems a bit different which is why I don't think we will be an easy sweep.

Last year heading into the playoffs it seemed pretty clear we had a juggernaut Avalanche team, and a step below was us. Our goalie let us down. This year I don't see a clear #1 team which probably will make it tougher to win in the playoffs.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Yeah probably. Then they'll land Vegas in the first round and it'll be a quick out

You're right. Vegas will be out quick.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

If the Flames get 95 points this year, it will take 44 points and a .594-point percent to finish out the season. Not too bad but IMO the problem is Oiler and Avs are the teams close to them. I have a feeling both are going to out play us down the stretch.

Minnesota, Seattle and LA don't have to play that well to get to 95.

Flames will need to win against the team they are racing and stop choking against teams they should beat.

Next 5

Avs
Lightning
Blue Jackets
Hawks
Kraken (Back-to-Back)

If they lose to the Avs and Edmonton wins toniight they are sitting out of the playoffs with 2 teams just ahead of them that were in the conference finals.

If the Oilers win tonight then Seattle loses and vice versa...people think every team is going to play at a really high pace but its not possible. NHL schedules more divisional and conference games down the stretch

The math says 95 almost certainly gets it done

[DeluxeMoustache]

Oops, wrong thread

[JohnnyB]

Feels like a toss-up at this point. They're earning points more consistently recently, but it wouldn't take much to sink the ship. A bit of bad luck and it could all be over pretty quickly.

[N-E-B]

I voted a reluctant yes. I think this team has vastly underperformed this year yet still has a respectable record.

I think a lot of why it feels like they aren’t playing well is because they haven’t put together a 5 or 6 game win streak yet. It’s been win two, lose one, win two, lose two in OT, win one, lose another in OT, win two, lose one (not accurate, just how it feels).

So while it feels like they can’t string together 3 or more wins in a row they’re still getting points.

Seattle reminds me a lot of the 2015 Flames. I keep waiting for them to fall off but I think they likely make it in. I think the Flames or Oilers will overtake the Kings with the other taking the last wildcard spot.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Close but no cigar. We're past the point of the team gelling, so we should be seeing results right now. We are not seeing results. Teams find another gear and start winning those important close games down the stretch. We've been playing those type of games all year long and with mediocre results. I think that when teams start finding that other gear as they prepare for the postseason the Flames will not be able to match the change in tempo as they struggle to keep up right now. Sutter said it himself, the game is about speed and pace. The Flames have neither and the games are only going to be getting quicker. The roster is too slow IMO and will continue to flag as the tempo increases.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Close but no cigar. We're past the point of the team gelling, so we should be seeing results right now. We are not seeing results. Teams find another gear and start winning those important close games down the stretch. We've been playing those type of games all year long and with mediocre results. I think that when teams start finding that other gear as they prepare for the postseason the Flames will not be able to match the change in tempo as they struggle to keep up right now. Sutter said it himself, the game is about speed and pace. The Flames have neither and the games are only going to be getting quicker. The roster is too slow IMO and will continue to flag as the tempo increases.

4-5th in the West since December 1st and points in 17 of those 23 games.

They're seeing results.

I just don't see the ceiling being all that much higher.

[Gaskal]

Originally Posted by Bingo

4-5th in the West since December 1st and points in 17 of those 23 games.

They're seeing results.

I just don't see the ceiling being all that much higher.

I'm glad that they are seeing results but it would make us feel a whole lot better if they can string together more than 2 wins in a row. Haven't done so since the start of December - It's been some variation of W-W-L-OTL for a while now.

Just feels like every time we get a solid chance to nip at the heels of LA/SEA and put a bit of distance between us and the Wild Card chasers we get let down and lose.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

I'm glad that they are seeing results but it would make us feel a whole lot better if they can string together more than 2 wins in a row. Haven't done so since the start of December - It's been some variation of W-W-L-OTL for a while now.

Just feels like every time we get a solid chance to nip at the heels of LA/SEA and put a bit of distance between us and the Wild Card chasers we get let down and lose.

Yeah this team badly needs a 5+ game winning streak to make up some ground on the Kings and Kraken. It's going to be difficult to get a wild card spot as I'm under the assumption that the Avs will figure things out and bump the Wild to a wild card spot.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bingo

4-5th in the West since December 1st and points in 17 of those 23 games.

They're seeing results.

I just don't see the ceiling being all that much higher.

I don't see those results as being enough. Maybe some teams above them collapse? I think that is what they are going to need. There are teams behind them (Colorado, Nashville, and St. Louis) that have potential to outplay them and pass them, especially with the play of late. As the games intensify I'm not sure I see anything else on the squad to step up. They could really use some youth and speed in the lineup, but we know Sutter is 1000% against such a radical move. Not until we're 10 up or 10 down.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If the Oilers win tonight then Seattle loses and vice versa...people think every team is going to play at a really high pace but its not possible. NHL schedules more divisional and conference games down the stretch

The math says 95 almost certainly gets it done

The Flames have also been very healthy again since a tough stretch early in the year due to injuries. The teams they are racing with are getting healthy now.

My prediction also is they will miss, but I would say it's tight and like a 45% chance they make it 55% they don't.

Health is a big part of it now and the fact that Colorado is a team chasing them. If it was Minnesota or LA or Seattle, I'd say they are more likely to be in than out. Tonight's game is a big one.

Another big X factor for me is this team plays a ton of close games and is terrible in 3 on 3 OT. They just don't have the players that excel in this format and a coach who just doesn't seem to get it. I love Chris Tanev but he should not see the ice in OT and 2 d 1 forward I guess thinking defense first against the other team's top line make sense, but they will lose way more than they win in OT. Sutter just doesn't seem to get you need to be able to skate and handle the puck to excel in OT. There is no checking in OT

These lost points will have them out of the playoffs IMO

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

The Flames have also been very healthy again since a tough stretch early in the year due to injuries. The teams they are racing with are getting healthy now.

My prediction also is they will miss, but I would say it's tight and like a 45% chance they make it 55% they don't.

Health is a big part of it now and the fact that Colorado is a team chasing them. If it was Minnesota or LA or Seattle, I'd say they are more likely to be in than out. Tonight's game is a big one.

Another big X factor for me is this team plays a ton of close games and is terrible in 3 on 3 OT. They just don't have the players that excel in this format and a coach who just doesn't seem to get it. I love Chris Tanev but he should not see the ice in OT and 2 d 1 forward I guess thinking defense first against the other team's top line make sense, but they will lose way more than they win in OT. Sutter just doesn't seem to get you need to be able to skate and handle the puck to excel in OT. There is no checking in OT

These lost points will have them out of the playoffs IMO

It could easily be a race against these teams in the end

people get way to fixated on teams this early...95 points, get it done and get in. Avalanche play the Wild, Kings, Oilers, Kraken multiple times...if they are on a big run these teams are all losing

Every oddsmaker has them 70+ to get in so your 45% is very pessimistic

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

I don't see those results as being enough. Maybe some teams above them collapse? I think that is what they are going to need. There are teams behind them (Colorado, Nashville, and St. Louis) that have potential to outplay them and pass them, especially with the play of late. As the games intensify I'm not sure I see anything else on the squad to step up. They could really use some youth and speed in the lineup, but we know Sutter is 1000% against such a radical move. Not until we're 10 up or 10 down.

I think there are a number of current players who have more to give. Mangiapane, for example. The teams you mention have underperformed, especially the Avs. But so has Calgary. Which is, in a way, a good thing.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It could easily be a race against these teams in the end

people get way to fixated on teams this early...95 points, get it done and get in. Avalanche play the Wild, Kings, Oilers, Kraken multiple times...if they are on a big run these teams are all losing

Every oddsmaker has them 70+ to get in so your 45% is very pessimistic

You're also assuming every head-to-head matchup ends in regulation. Points required to make the playoffs typically trends up at this point in the season. Games get tighter and 3-point games go up combined with teams tanking for Bedard I expect 95 will be probably what is needed but doubt it will be much lower, maybe 94 but could be 96 as well.

Strength of schedule doesn't seem to be a huge advantage anymore either other than with Nashville.

Flames are terrible in OT.
Markstrom has yet to get hot for 4+ games in a row.
Teams closest in the race are getting healthy.

Only Seattle is a team that I think probably could go on a huge slide, but they have a nice cushion on the Flames. Hope I'm wrong but it's not looking good IMO

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It could easily be a race against these teams in the end

people get way to fixated on teams this early...95 points, get it done and get in. Avalanche play the Wild, Kings, Oilers, Kraken multiple times...if they are on a big run these teams are all losing

Every oddsmaker has them 70+ to get in so your 45% is very pessimistic

I think it might be a bit more than that this year.

I see 9 teams that all have a shot still of at least 96-98 points and no real team in the west running away with 110+ points.

Dallas
Winnipeg
Vegas
Minnesota
Seattle
LA
Edmonton
Calgary
Colorado

Flames have a good shot - but honestly it's going to be tough to either say in front of Colorado - or to chase down one of the teams in front of them. It's going to come down to if Markstrom can at least provide like average .905 goaltending for them down the stretch here.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I think it might be a bit more than that this year.

I see 9 teams that all have a shot still of at least 96-98 points.

Dallas
Winnipeg
Vegas
Minnesota
Seattle
LA
Edmonton
Calgary
Colorado

Flames have a good shot - but honestly it's going to be tough to either say in front of Colorado - or to chase down one of the teams in front of them.

All these teams won't get over 95 points
I have this conversation with people every season...2nd half is heavily weighted in conference and divisional games...somebody is going to win and somebody is going to lose. If the Flames get to 95 they are beating a lot of these teams. Same goes for everyone else.

We can say 96 to please solid snake but this seasons pace is lower...not every single team will play better in the 2nd half. The Flames are in a spot after 45 games with 51 points.

Math

There is a reason every sportsbook favors the Flames to make it, its not a homer take its math and odds.

The IF is actually getting that point total...how other teams play is almost irrelevant honestly because if you get your points you will make it.

No western conference team has ever missed the playoffs with 96 points

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dino7c

All these teams won't get over 95 points

I'm not sure I agree that it's going to be 95 this year - you're going to see Phoenix, Chicago, Vancouver, San Jose, and Anaheim lean into the tank for Bedard harder than ever before.

Dallas - 108 point pace
Winnipeg - 108 point pace
Vegas - 106 point pace
Seattle - 104 point pace
Minnesota - 103 point pace
LA - 100 point pace
Edmonton- 95 point pace
Calgary - 93 point pace
Colorado - 92 point pace

Seattle, Calgary, Edmonton, and LA all have similarly soft schedules...Colorado is tougher but still not a tough schedule.

I could easily see 98 points being what is needed this year.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Update ...

Flames no longer in top spot but on that three team ledge that's below the rest of the teams.

For playoff race purposes, don't look for much help in schedule against Seattle, Edmonton and Los Angeles.

The Flames do have decent odds to make it - but there is something different happening this year. Oddmakers and forecasters have 9 teams with a greater than 60% chance to make it - the lowest odds being those of the defending cup champion Colorado Avalanche.

This year the west is more similar to last year's Eastern Conference where there were 8 teams that were locked in. This year the west has 9 teams that are going to be battling for the 8 spots.