Did Sutter change the system?

[dino7c]

2 OTL is the same as 1 win though in points...which is how the standings are Calculated
Games above .500 isn't exactly perfect either. I was also going since Dec 1st because I thought it was like the 3rd of January

So over the last 30 days its basically even, you are right.

Over the last 10 games they have gained on 9, tied with 2 and lost slightly on 4 of the 15 teams in the west

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Is that based on overall points earned?

Originally Posted by dino7c

2 OTL is the same as 1 win though in points...which is how the standings are Calculated

Games above .500 isn't exactly perfect either. I was also going since Dec 1st because I thought it was like the 3rd of January

With this many games left, games above .500 is the best way. If it was the end of the season and one team had 8 games left and the other had 10 and were tied, points matters. Either way, the Flames are not gaining ground. Since December 14th, the Flames have played 8 non playoff teams and 4 playoff teams. I am not going to bother looking up the other teams, but it is safe to say in a conference where half the teams make the playoffs it is safe to say that having 67% of your games against non-playoff teams means they probably had an easier schedule than most of their peers who did better than them.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The reason for todays discussions are because of a loss in Chicago that should have been a win and a loss in St.Louis that really should have been a win. That moves you to 17/22 pts and for the Flames literally every point matters. So when you watch Kadri dog it in period 3 and Huberdeau just give the puck away in OT, and then Kadri with a semi-lazy back check in OT, yeah, obviously, it’s not what it should or could be and it is a repeating pattern and cause for concern at game 41. We don’t have the luxury of asking these legitimate questions at game 65 because by that point the season truly is likely over.

The Flames have to beat the Blues and Avs to make playoffs which will not be easy. At all.

I still think it will be a team like the Wild in the race with the Flames and not the Avs but who knows...even the Jets

Season is exactly half over, a lot can change

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

2 OTL is the same as 1 win though in points...which is how the standings are Calculated
Games above .500 isn't exactly perfect either. I was also going since Dec 1st because I thought it was like the 3rd of January

So over the last 30 days its basically even, you are right.

Over the last 10 games they have gained on 9, tied with 2 and lost slightly on 4 of the 15 teams in the west

Well over the last 10 games they have lost ground to 4 potential playoff teams, had one more point than 3 potential playoff teams, had 2 more points than one playoff team that is 9 points ahead of them in the playoff race and gained significant ground on 2 potential playoff teams (one of whom is the Stanley Cup Champions). I guess you could call that treading water against a weak schedule. You are right though, they are crushing teams like Arizona.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

With this many games left, games above .500 is the best way. If it was the end of the season and one team had 8 games left and the other had 10 and were tied, points matters. Either way, the Flames are not gaining ground. Since December 14th, the Flames have played 8 non playoff teams and 4 playoff teams. I am not going to bother looking up the other teams, but it is safe to say in a conference where half the teams make the playoffs it is safe to say that having 67% of your games against non-playoff teams means they probably had an easier schedule than most of their peers who did better than them.

Flames have an easier schedule than all but the Oilers the rest of the way so...just means they have had a harder one thus far

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames have an easier schedule than all but the Oilers the rest of the way so...just means they have had a harder one thus far

I guess. In your ten game stretch you are citing the Flames are 2-1-1 against playoff teams and 3-1-2 against not playoff teams. Not sure it is a huge a difference.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames have an easier schedule than all but the Oilers the rest of the way so...just means they have had a harder one thus far

“Easier”. I sure hope they don’t think like you do, they seem to suck against “easy” teams relative to expectations.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I guess. In your ten game stretch you are citing the Flames are 2-1-1 against playoff teams and 3-1-2 against not playoff teams. Not sure it is a huge a difference.

you just posted this

"having 67% of your games against non-playoff teams means they probably had an easier schedule than most of their peers who did better than them"

Was just responding to that.

There are more divisional games in the 2nd half, still 42 to play.

If the Flames continue to play .600 hockey they will make the playoffs...if not they won't. Some of these teams will inevitably fall they can't all go on heaters the rest of the year. If the Avs start dominating and climbing like crazy they will be beating the Jets, Wild, ect.

Flames are .600 points percentage since December 1st, four teams in the West are better than that

(since December 1st was the "month" I was stating, again my bad I honestly thought we were in early Jan lol)

I'm not trying to excuse anything just pointing out there has been pretty major improvement....600 hockey teams make the playoffs

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

you just posted this

"having 67% of your games against non-playoff teams means they probably had an easier schedule than most of their peers who did better than them"

so it only matters when it supports your point?

There are more divisional games in the 2nd half, still 42 to play.

If the Flames continue to play .600 hockey they will make the playoffs...if not they won't. Some of these teams will inevitably fall they can't all go on heaters the rest of the year. If the Avs start dominating and climbing like crazy they will be beating the Jets, Wild, ect.

My point was consistent, the Flames cannot make ground despite having an easier schedule. They have lost ground in the last month, that is fairly obvious based on math.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

My point was consistent, the Flames cannot make ground despite having an easier schedule. They have lost ground in the last month, that is fairly obvious based on math.

I said month but was using stats from December 1st to now...so my mistake there

They have gained ground though since December 1st...only 4 teams have a higher points percentage.

Probably why they are currently in a playoff spot and why all oddsmakers expect them to make it. If you don't think they will there are some good odds out there for you.

To me they are playing better recently but being let down mostly by goaltending, that will need to change.

Flames are .650 in their last 10 (13 of 20 points) if they play at that pace the rest of the season they will have over 100 points, not sure how anyone can say they aren't trending upwards

[Kasi]

But they won’t play at a .650 rate because they’re not going to continue playing 2/3 of their games against non playoff teams.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Kasi

But they won’t play at a .650 rate because they’re not going to continue playing 2/3 of their games against non playoff teams.

Probably not .650 but they won't need to
They can play .600 I think...will they? who knows

also, have you seen the schedule? lots of non playoff teams in what will be an epic tank job down the stretch

Point I was trying to make is posters are acting like they lost 10 in a row...they are playing at a 107 point pace their last 10 games despite a couple epic chokes
98 point pace since December 1st

They are trending in the right direction despite the fact they should have done even better especially in the last two

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Probably not .650 but they won't need to
They can play .600 I think...will they? who knows

also, have you seen the schedule? lots of non playoff teams in what will be an epic tank job down the stretch

Point I was trying to make is posters are acting like they lost 10 in a row...they are playing at a 107 point pace their last 10 games despite a couple epic chokes
98 point pace since December 1st

They are trending in the right direction despite the fact they should have done even better especially in the last two

Every team they are competing with, with the exceptions of the Wild and the Preds have an easy schedule down the stretch. The team with the easiest schedule is the Avs. Presumably they beat all the ####ty teams too and play at a .600 clip.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Every team they are competing with, with the exceptions of the Wild and the Preds have an easy schedule down the stretch. The team with the easiest schedule is the Avs. Presumably they beat all the ####ty teams too and play at a .600 clip.

If the Flames play .600 hockey the rest of the season they are in the playoffs...are you seriously suggesting they wouldn't be?
You do know that somebody losses every game right?

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If the Flames play .600 hockey the rest of the season they are in the playoffs...are you seriously suggesting they wouldn't be?
You do know that somebody losses every game right?

You are weirdly counting on the other teams losing to the teams involved in the epic tank job (your post made it seem like this epic tank job would contribute to the likelihood of a higher win percentage for the Flames). But to answer your question, I am not sure 95 points makes the playoffs, so I guess I am seriously suggesting they could play .600 hockey the rest of the way and miss the playoffs.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Every team they are competing with, with the exceptions of the Wild and the Preds have an easy schedule down the stretch. The team with the easiest schedule is the Avs. Presumably they beat all the ####ty teams too and play at a .600 clip.

The Avs schedule to finish January is very easy. They will pass us by then.

Imo Edmonton Minnesota seattle Nashville are the main teams to focus on. Kings too but I think they are going to finish 2nd

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

You are weirdly counting on the other teams losing to the teams involved in the epic tank job (your post made it seem like this epic tank job would contribute to the likelihood of a higher win percentage for the Flames). But to answer your question, I am not sure 95 points makes the playoffs, so I guess I am seriously suggesting they could play .600 hockey the rest of the way and miss the playoffs.

Well teams will lose games to bad teams I can assure you...they will also all be playing each other a lot. NHL schedules more divisional games near the end of the season for playoff race excitement. If some teams play at a ridiculous clip others will fall. IF the Flames play .600 hockey they will be beating a bunch of teams in the race themselves.

Not all these teams are going to be .600 plus the rest of the way its simple math

If the Flames have 95 points they will be a playoff team

Colorado is currently the 2nd Wildcard in points percentage with a .551

Flames are already ahead of Colorado, Edmonton, St. Louis, Nashville
If the Flames play .600 hockey two of them have to be better than .600 the rest of the way

The top team in the West has played at a .667 clip this season

Then even if that did happened it teams like the Jets and Wild are likely pulled into the race

Flames still have to actually do it, I make no guarantees of that...I am only suggesting the .650 in their last 10 and .600 since December 1 is a pace that would get it done.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Lmao lets relax a bit.

Name a better checking line you’ve seen from this franchise? They created an immense amount of offense from their ability to check in every zone and gave up nothing on the other side of the ice. The trio averaged +61 together which are numbers that hadn’t been seen since peak Wayne Gretzky era back in the 80s.

That top line was the biggest reason why the 21-22 team sported a +85 goal differential and cruised to a Pacific Division title whereas the current 22-23 team owns a +4 difference while barely holding down a very tenuous wild card position.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Name a better checking line you’ve seen from this franchise? They created an immense amount of offense from their ability to check in every zone and gave up nothing on the other side of the ice. The trio averaged +61 together which are numbers that hadn’t been seen since peak Wayne Gretzky era back in the 80s.

That top line was the biggest reason why the 21-22 team sported a +85 goal differential and cruised to a Pacific Division title whereas the current 22-23 team owns a +4 difference while barely holding down a very tenuous wild card position.

Now Tkachuk is a +5
Gaudreau is a -16
Lindholm is even

Team structure, the 6 steady dmen with zero injuries, and the goaltending had a lot to do with those numbers. Line was unreal but it was the perfect storm, likely would not have been repeated.

I think its fair to say the team would have 5 more wins if Markstrom was on top of his game, 5 wins would have them first in the West....fine line

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Now Tkachuk is a +5
Gaudreau is a -16
Lindholm is even

Team structure, the 6 steady dmen with zero injuries, and the goaltending had a lot to do with those numbers. Line was unreal but it was the perfect storm, likely would not have been repeated.

I think its fair to say the team would have 5 more wins if Markstrom was on top of his game, 5 wins would have them first in the West....fine line

Well, as I said in my other posts, I thought Markstrom was more of a product of his team last season. I‘m not surprised one bit that he has reverted back to his bubble form where he was no help to the team.

Secondly, I’ve also said in the past that Darryl’s tight checking system makes it a lot easier for the defensemen to play their game especially because of the way the F3 defends the opposition breakout. They’re able to step up more because of the back pressure and support. So with how connected the 5 man group is, the team defends considerably better than under say Bill Peters or Geoff Ward and etc. None of that has changed though, same coaches, same system, mostly the same personnel. The only difference is that 13 and 19 are gone and suddenly, the top line can’t check as effectively anymore.

Lastly, you can speculate that they wouldn’t have repeated their career years. But I think otherwise as they were outstanding together in back in 2021. I don’t remember Tkchuk or Lindholm’s numbers off the top of my head, but Gaudreau finished with 22 points in his final 16 games which equated to a pace of 113 points. Then next season, he puts up 115 points in a full season. Pretty darn close.

Even if you discount the numbers, they were just a dominant line shift after shift. That trio tilted the ice whenever they stepped onto the ice and Darryl certainly hasn’t forgotten that with all the shots he’s taken at his stars this season. Stuff like the stars need to make a play, not enough game breakers, no dominant players on this team and etc.