Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Monahammer]

I've been hearing a lot lately from government folk that Smith will gear up to Punt the election if poll numbers keep trending poorly. She would need buy in from the less conformal party members to achieve this. AFAIK they would just have to repeal the fixed date legislation, in which case she would have up to another year to call an election as the constitution requires an election within 5 years.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

The bill was further neutered. I am not sure what additional powers are now granted by the bill to cabinet, will refrain from further comment until i read the full text, but I am unsure how much different this would be from using the notwithstanding clause.

Here it is if you want to read it:

https://docs.assembly.ab.ca/LADDAR_f..._am-001-A1.pdf

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

And to follow up that Iraqi Information Minister propaganda, here's what really matters:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600858316347170816

Well, Eric Grenier, noted nose-counting guru, says the NDP’s 10-point lead in Calgary is an election-winning one for that party.

Putting the poll results into a projection of who would win what legislature seats, the result would be the NDP with 46 seats and Smith’s UCP with 41.

The NDP would win 21 out of 26 seats in Calgary.

In the last election, the NDP won only three in Calgary.

Mainstreet's poll out yesterday found only a 1-point lead for the NDP in Calgary, but if AR, Janet Brown, and Leger all have 6%+ leads, Mainstreet is definitely looking like the outlier there (their previous reputation makes that an easy narrative to believe).

But there's also some stuff in that Angus Reid poll that's surprising. Only a 7 point lead for the NDP in Edmonton? That makes 2 polls this month that have the NDP leading by more in Calgary than in Edmonton. I have a hard time believing that. Maybe there's a bit of a shift of the UCP alienating white-collar voters with their economic instability, but attracting blue-collar voters who might not have been previously politically active with their populism.

[Fuzz]

(ii)causes or is anticipated to cause harm to Albertans on the
basis that it
(A)affects or interferes with an area of provincial
legislative jurisdiction under the Constitution of
Canada, or
(B)interferes with the rights and freedoms of one or more
Albertans under theCanadian Charter of Rights and
Freedoms,

I find B to be troublesome. Section 1 of the charter says
"1. The Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms guarantees the rights and freedoms set out in it subject only to such reasonable limits prescribed by law as can be demonstrably justified in a free and democratic society."

So this bill is saying the Alberta government will now have to make a judgment call on Charter Rights, and which limits are reasonable or not. This is an attempt to circumvent Federal authority(and I can't help but think this is all related to covid restrictions, becuase of course it is) and I don't see how it can't cause a constitutional crisis. Any limits deemed not reasonable should be decided by the courts, not a provincial government. And by picking a side, they then breach the charter rights of Albertans who would be served by these reasonable limits. Is this not hugely problematic?

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Here it is if you want to read it:

https://docs.assembly.ab.ca/LADDAR_f..._am-001-A1.pdf

I think amendment B essentially makes it the same as the Notwithstanding clause. I am interested to see where they will try to use these powers first, and if it will just cause a constitutional crisis immediately if the LG refuses to order the bureaucrats to disobey federal requirements (though with the amendments, this chance may be reduced as the 'harm' would have to be pretty apparent.)

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Mainstreet's poll out yesterday found only a 1-point lead for the NDP in Calgary, but if AR, Janet Brown, and Leger all have 6%+ leads, Mainstreet is definitely looking like the outlier there (their previous reputation makes that an easy narrative to believe).

But there's also some stuff in that Angus Reid poll that's surprising. Only a 7 point lead for the NDP in Edmonton? That makes 2 polls this month that have the NDP leading by more in Calgary than in Edmonton. I have a hard time believing that. Maybe there's a bit of a shift of the UCP alienating white-collar voters with their economic instability, but attracting blue-collar voters who might not have been previously politically active with their populism.

The Angus Reid poll is this type:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Nov. 28 to Dec. 3, 2022 among a representative randomized sample of 591 Albertan adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

https://angusreid.org/alberta-ucp-nd...rachel-notley/

I think with the small sample size and source of results makes it harder to draw accurate conclusions about individual ridings. That's, what, ~15 people per riding?

[D as in David]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Finally got tired enough of the UCP to set up a monthly donation to the NDP. This is madness.

I signed up to be a volunteer a couple of weeks ago. Never before have I cared enough to get involved with politics to this extent.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I've been hearing a lot lately from government folk that Smith will gear up to Punt the election if poll numbers keep trending poorly. She would need buy in from the less conformal party members to achieve this. AFAIK they would just have to repeal the fixed date legislation, in which case she would have up to another year to call an election as the constitution requires an election within 5 years.

Another wrinkle and addendum to this is that the courts ruled that the prime minister was not bound by fixed election date legislation: https://decisions.fct-cf.gc.ca/fc-cf...FdhdGNoAAAAAAE

This was in the opposite sense though; Harper dissolved parliament and called an election to avoid the coalition of Dion-Layton-Block from taking power prior to the fixed election date. But, it is possible that even if she doesn't get large party buy in to repeal the fixed election date legislation, Smith could still attempt to refuse the election.

[PeteMoss]

Could have a fun scenario where the UCP wins the popular vote but the NDP gets close to a majority just by dominating Calgary and Edmonton. Forget Alberta leaving Canada, let's move to rural Alberta splitting from urban Alberta.

[Ozy_Flame]

She promised to keep the election date as is. If she punts it down the line she's risking another wound to an already pissed off majority of Albertans who don't like her brand of politics.

[RedHot25]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600886410328014848

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600886412022538240

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

She promised to keep the election date as is. If she punts it down the line she's risking another wound to an already pissed off majority of Albertans who don't like her brand of politics.

Meh, I think it's a last resort to try the punt, sort of a "nothing to lose at this point" play, if she's already headed for the door by the numbers. The problem is getting all the moderate cons to agree to repeal, given they could be putting their own necks on the line to achieve this.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by RedHot25

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600886410328014848

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600886412022538240

Is that actually real? Is it even possible that Smith doesn't know that Ottawa is a national government?

[Ozy_Flame]

Gee I wonder why.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600908228908535809

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Gee I wonder why.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1600908228908535809

I like Ed Stelmach's sons reply to that tweet, implying that it's not for ideologue reasons, she's just a bad person.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Looking for a some education here, not an argument.

Putting disdain for individuals (Smith, Cooper, et al) aside (my own included), what is so terribly wrong about making a move to try and give Alberta a little more autonomy? I'm not a separatist, and think talk around that is non-productive, but trying to give a province (this can apply to any province) more jurisdiction than what currently exists doesn't seem unreasonable when the needs of each and every province is quite different. What's the downside?

On the Current, Notley even agreed Alberta needs to "stand up for Alberta and get a better deal from Ottawa for sure" but, "do it like grown ups"

So, is Smith's aggression the issue? Is it the threat of separation if Ottawa doesn't conform bother most people? Is there something specific in the text of the bill raising red flags and alarms?

Genuinely curious and those aren't leading questions.

[The Fisher Account]

Conservatives will jump at any opportunity to be petty.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Looking for a some education here, not an argument.

Putting disdain for individuals (Smith, Cooper, et al) aside (my own included), what is so terribly wrong about making a move to try and give Alberta a little more autonomy? I'm not a separatist, and think talk around that is non-productive, but trying to give a province (this can apply to any province) more jurisdiction than what currently exists doesn't seem unreasonable when the needs of each and every province is quite different. What's the downside?

On the Current, Notley even agreed Alberta needs to "stand up for Alberta and get a better deal from Ottawa for sure" but, "do it like grown ups"

So, is Smith's aggression the issue? Is it the threat of separation if Ottawa doesn't conform bother most people? Is there something specific in the text of the bill raising red flags and alarms?

Genuinely curious and those aren't leading questions.

When has taking an extremely adversarial position in govenrment ever got anyone anywhere? Bronconier spent years whining and complaining about the provincial government, and he was really ineffective at getting anything out of them. Nenshi spent years worknig with the province, despite being ideologically opposed. He spent years working towards a city charter, which was achieved. This is how you make politics work.

Smith spent zero point zero hours attempting to discuss anything with the feds before doing this. She didn't even try. She came in with a set of notions, right or wrong, and she's steam rolling with it. Is that how a good leader gets things done? Good politicians work with all levels of govenrment to get compromises that maybe to be exactly what they want, but that benefit citizens. This is playground level politics, it's embarrassing, and it's not likely to achieve anything.

I'd ask, what is the expected outcome on specifics that will benefit Alberta? Not hand wavy stuff, I mean things that will stand up in court and be a benefit to Alberta, and more importantly, Canada.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Looking for a some education here, not an argument.

Putting disdain for individuals (Smith, Cooper, et al) aside (my own included), what is so terribly wrong about making a move to try and give Alberta a little more autonomy? I'm not a separatist, and think talk around that is non-productive, but trying to give a province (this can apply to any province) more jurisdiction than what currently exists doesn't seem unreasonable when the needs of each and every province is quite different. What's the downside?

On the Current, Notley even agreed Alberta needs to "stand up for Alberta and get a better deal from Ottawa for sure" but, "do it like grown ups"

So, is Smith's aggression the issue? Is it the threat of separation if Ottawa doesn't conform bother most people? Is there something specific in the text of the bill raising red flags and alarms?

Genuinely curious and those aren't leading questions.

Non-Albertan.. but no there is no downside. But is this about getting a deal or just trying to start a pointless fight. A better deal is negotiating for whatever you want.. this is just saying we are going to ignore laws if we don't like them.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

####ing embarrassing. Emailed my MLA again.

I just angrily e-mailed Empty.Chair@assembly.ab.ca.

Calgary-Elbow still doesn't have an MLA. Thanks Doug Schweitzer for running away with your tail between your legs.