Russia invades Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

Poland has been looking for an excuse to #### up the Russians, I would be surprised if they don't retaliate in a measured way.

[FLAMESRULE]

Yeah, I'm not sold this was a true accident. I totally agree that the Poles would destroy the Russians and may be looking for a fight and I said as much re: Belarus getting any more hare brained ideas.

But its the f'ing Russians. They've shot down airliners "by accident". This is skirting a very fine line around Nato, and this will be the a strong test. I agree with Starseed that there must be a response accident or not, and it should start by sinking some of the Black Sea fleet after todays missile attacks.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by FLAMESRULE

Yeah, I'm not sold this was a true accident. I totally agree that the Poles would destroy the Russians and may be looking for a fight and I said as much re: Belarus getting any more hare brained ideas.

But its the f'ing Russians. They've shot down airliners "by accident". This is skirting a very fine line around Nato, and this will be the a strong test. I agree with Starseed that there must be a response accident or not, and it should start by sinking some/all of the Black Sea fleet after todays missile attacks.

That's moronic. Talk about an escalation that will lead to more death. JFC

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Imagine a stray missle striking a US city or some other kind of American base around the world. Claiming an accident wouldn't suffice. Action of some kind would be taken.

A similar example might be when the U.S. bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999, killing 3 Chinese citizens. Technically, it was an attack on sovereign Chinese territory, albeit likely accidental. Some actually do believe it was on purpose as China was apparently helping indicted war criminals flee at the time. In the end, China decided the risk of escalation was not worth it for something that likely was an accident, even if there were some doubts (and still are in China). As others mentioned, I could see Poland unilaterally doing something, which would be interesting and scary at the same time.

[opendoor]

It's also possible it was an air defense missile. The debris does bear some resemblance to an S-300:

https://twitter.com/user/status/1592598645781979137

Though Russia has used those for ground attacks as well. So even if it was an S-300, that doesn't mean it wasn't them (though it would have had to come from Belarus to reach Poland). And either way, when you're lobbing missiles within kilometers of a NATO nation, you're responsible for whatever happens.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Russia launched strikes against Lviv and Kyiv. Lviv is closest to Przewodow where the missile hit. It's hard to believe that Russia would intentionally bomb a small village like Przewodow, but it's also hard to understand how they could miss Lviv by ~100km. It's been noted that Russian tech and technicians leave a lot to be desired, but 100km? Woof, that's just missing the wall the dart board is hanging on.

Back in March, a drone carrying a 120 kg payload crashed in Zagreb, Croatia causing extensive damage and barely missing a university dorm. It missed it's target by over 1,000 km and flew through three other countries before crashing. NATO pretty much swept it under the rug. Another similar incident happened in Romania as well. Don't underestimate the inept capabilities of the Russian military.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Zagreb_Tu-141_crash

Of course, the fact there were deaths this time makes it way more tragic as property loss does not compare to human loss, and citizens might demand more.

[FLAMESRULE]

Originally Posted by Jacks

There is no way the civilized world can just back down on this, the West needs to increase aid to Ukraine and defend every inch of NATO territory. If the world backs down from the threats of a narcissist it will only get worse.


Hope you get out of this okay Pointman.

Originally Posted by Sliver

That's moronic. Talk about an escalation that will lead to more death. JFC

Sliver, not sure if you're quoting me or not...but if you are, then what's the point of NATO? Accident or not, you either defend "every square inch" or not. If you don't respond then Russia will continue on killing innocent people. Of course it needs to be measured, but targeting a cruiser in the Black Sea seems measured since thats where the missiles are being launched from.

[BloodFetish]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

Russia launched strikes against Lviv and Kyiv. Lviv is closest to Przewodow where the missile hit. It's hard to believe that Russia would intentionally bomb a small village like Przewodow, but it's also hard to understand how they could miss Lviv by ~100km. It's been noted that Russian tech and technicians leave a lot to be desired, but 100km? Woof, that's just missing the wall the dart board is hanging on.

This is what happens when you use chips sourced from washing machines to finish cruise missiles on the production line.

[Huntingwhale]

It added in a statement: "No strikes on targets near the Ukrainian-Polish state border were made by Russian means of destruction."

Wreckage reportedly found at the scene "has nothing to do with Russian weapons", it said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ry-2022-11-15/

The ####bags aren't even going to admit it was an accident. They are probably laughing in the long-tabled boardroom as we speak at the stern finger wagging they are expecting to be given.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ry-2022-11-15/

The ####bags aren't even going to admit it was an accident. They are probably laughing in the long-tabled boardroom as we speak at the stern finger wagging they are expecting to be given.

Nah right now Putin is grilling his generals

'so let's get this straight, the US can put a missile up a mouses arse from 1500 miles away and we cant even be sure we are going to hit the right effing country? it feels a bit stuffy in here can you go open that window'

[Huntingwhale]

Just a reminder of a quote from back in March.

U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan warned of a full-fledged NATO response if a Russian strike were to hit member-state Poland, after an attack on a Ukrainian military base roughly 10 miles from the border.

He also reiterated President Biden’s vow that the U.S. and its allies will “defend every inch” of the NATO territory and would respond even in the event of an accidental or unintentional strike by Russia.

“All I will say is that if Russia attacks, fires upon, takes a shot at NATO territory, the NATO alliance would respond to that,” Mr. Sullivan said.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...bzJCRx5QiKilww

[CroFlames]

What is the appropriate NATO response to this?

Destroy the Black Sea fleet? Destroy known missile sites in Russia proper?

[afc wimbledon]

If it's an accident NATO will do little, if it looks like its on purpose my guess is Ukraine gets a fresh batch of long range missiles and permission to hit something interesting like the Sevastopol Naval Base or Rostov

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

Just a reminder of a quote from back in March.





https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/rus...bzJCRx5QiKilww

Well.....yeah.

But I think you have to take those quotes with a grain of salt. It sounds like Military Puffery.

They're not mobilizing all of NATO unless they absolutely, positively have no choice.

What they were really doing is trying to scare the Russians off to prevent escalation of the conflict.

What is really interesting about those comments though is that back in March we didnt know that the 'Great Red Army' that people were frightened of for decades was comprised mostly of drunken buffoons with no experience, no training, no equipment and antique materiel.

In March nobody wanted any part of this and their goal seemed to be to compartmentalize it. In November however NATO probably realizes that should the desire arise they could have this thing wrapped up so fast it'd put the Blitzkrieg to shame.

I'm no military strategist or anything but there are times I wonder if there is a dude in a Government Military basement somewhere thinking to himself:

"Hmmm. If we mobilized all of NATO...we could probably conquer and occupy Russia...and it looks like it'd be pretty easy."

I mean, obviously there is still that giant nuclear mozza-ball hanging out there...but other than that? Nobody is scared of the Russians right now.

The Ukrainians are rag-dolling them, the ultimate problem the Ukrainians face is the next test, and that is the Endgame.

How do you end this?

I honestly have no idea what thats going to look like but I hope someone figures it out sharpish because without some sort of Finale this is just going to be one long, drawn out, bloody engagement and unfortunately that plays into Russian hands more than Ukrainian ones.

[Geraldsh]

Conquering sounds good but then….who wants to occupy Russia?

[Locke]

Originally Posted by Geraldsh

Conquering sounds good but then….who wants to occupy Russia?

Anyone who wants unlimited access to craploads of Oil and Gas.

Remember the Iraq war that was about 'Weapons of Mass Destruction' that were conspicuously absent?

Well...Russia has both the literal and figurative 'Weapons of Mass Destruction.'

Maybe NATO needs to get in there to acquire their resources defend Democracy.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If it's an accident NATO will do little, if it looks like its on purpose my guess is Ukraine gets a fresh batch of long range missiles and permission to hit something interesting like the Sevastopol Naval Base or Rostov

Yeah the more I think about it the more I think the response should come from a Ukraine source.

The West can send weapons that are more high speed low drag than what they have been sending.

Allow the Ukrainians to really reach out and touch Ivan.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

Yeah the more I think about it the more I think the response should come from a Ukraine source.

The West can send weapons that are more high speed low drag than what they have been sending.

Allow the Ukrainians to really reach out and touch Ivan.

Not arguing for or against this response, but wouldn't a direct attack on Russian soil inevitably lead to escalation and ultimately NATO involvement?

[IliketoPuck]

Doesn't have to be a direct attack.

A change in the type of weaponry made available to UKR would be one way to go.

Several hundred Leopard tanks, some ATACMS, and a couple dozen F-15/F-16 would be pretty effective.

[Kasi]

Ukraine has already stuck Crimea and everywhere in it tons of times. Places across the border in Belarus have been hit. I think same for places just over the Russian border as well. I think the thing is it’s been fine if those places are marshalling spots for weapons or men entering Ukraine. Hasn’t really been any strikes against something generic in Russia though. Basically its open game for anything involved directly in the war even if over the “border” whatever that technically is.