[Game Takes] Flames 5 Avalanche 3

[Paulie Walnuts]

I love the analytics part of your break down, but I always have wondered what is xGF% and how is calculated?

[Finger Cookin]

Great to see the writeups back!

[Fire]

Originally Posted by Teroy

Thought Kadri showed a lot of hustle and talent.

I like Kadri as well, but a couple of times he tried to do too much on his own. Trying to beat 3 players by himself.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

I love the analytics part of your break down, but I always have wondered what is xGF% and how is calculated?

Expected goals for or against (xGF or xGA): This stat is based on shot attempts that have been weighted for shot quality by factoring in things such as shot type, shot location, shot angle, and whether a shot was a rebound or rush shot. This does not tell if a shot actually resulted in a goal but rather the probability of scoring a goal based on the factors listed above. Expected goals models have been even better at predicting future performance than shot attempts alone.

From this site:https://www.secondcityhockey.com/202...s-walkthroughs

[Steve Macfarlane]

One guy really stood out to me in the opener. Dillon Dube.

https://calgaryhockeynow.com/calgary...ri-mangiapane/

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

Expected goals for or against (xGF or xGA): This stat is based on shot attempts that have been weighted for shot quality by factoring in things such as shot type, shot location, shot angle, and whether a shot was a rebound or rush shot. This does not tell if a shot actually resulted in a goal but rather the probability of scoring a goal based on the factors listed above. Expected goals models have been even better at predicting future performance than shot attempts alone.

From this site:https://www.secondcityhockey.com/202...s-walkthroughs

Thanks that is a lot of information they use in that stat seems like a better indicator of performance opposed to Corsi stats.

[Weitz]

Will be curious to see how they play against the oilers (i won’t be able to watch, in Europe). Sounds like they played a tired team that showed up at 4 am according to Twitter and the avs played as such.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Thanks that is a lot of information they use in that stat seems like a better indicator of performance opposed to Corsi stats.

Depends a bit on the sample size and what you're doing with it. If we're taking about a description of what happened, I'd agree. If we're looking at a smallish sample and want to predict future outcomes it gets a bit murkier

[Kasi]

So Corsi is more like fWAR and xGF/A more like bWAR if we go by baseball stats?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

Expected goals for or against (xGF or xGA): This stat is based on shot attempts that have been weighted for shot quality by factoring in things such as shot type, shot location, shot angle, and whether a shot was a rebound or rush shot. This does not tell if a shot actually resulted in a goal but rather the probability of scoring a goal based on the factors listed above. Expected goals models have been even better at predicting future performance than shot attempts alone.

From this site:https://www.secondcityhockey.com/202...s-walkthroughs

Which seems rather subjective for a predictive piece of data. I assume it’s a human (watching on tv or in the building?).

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Which seems rather subjective for a predictive piece of data. I assume it’s a human (watching on tv or in the building?).

No, it's Corsi with shot context included (mainly location)

[NegativeSpace]

I just posted from website describing it instead of trying to describe my understanding. It will invariably have some subjective component. We had that issue with the shot count or hit count alone. Some places had strange shot counting or hit counting. These measures are simpler and less subjective, yet there are disputes. Yet, the idea that not all shots are the same and should be weighed differently does make sense for trying to evaluate who is carrying the pay. I think Bingo’s approach of looking to see what the stats say and seeing if it makes sense with what is seen on the ice. They seemed to track what I saw but that is probably confirmation bias.

[Bingo]

I think it's a better stat for sorting out players into how they played in a single game.

The thing about expected stats though, skill can out play the underlying numbers. A guy like Draisaitl is consistently a mediocre to poor player in expected stats, but his actual goal splits are better because his passing and shooting skills exceed the average NHLers and tip the scales.

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I think it's a better stat for sorting out players into how they played in a single game.

The thing about expected stats though, skill can out play the underlying numbers. A guy like Draisaitl is consistently a mediocre to poor player in expected stats, but his actual goal splits are better because his passing and shooting skills exceed the average NHLers and tip the scales.

There is a clearer hierarchy in the pairing...

Hanifin-Andersson corsi- 40.7% fenwick 45.5
Weegar-Tanev corsi- 68.4% fenwick 61.5


Weegar is a beast. It will not be long before it become Tkachuk for Weegar and Huberdeau rather than Tkachuk for Huberdeau and Weegar.

The Flames are playing their #1 and #2 D on the same pairing

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I just posted from website describing it instead of trying to describe my understanding. It will invariably have some subjective component. We had that issue with the shot count or hit count alone. Some places had strange shot counting or hit counting. These measures are simpler and less subjective, yet there are disputes. Yet, the idea that not all shots are the same and should be weighed differently does make sense for trying to evaluate who is carrying the pay. I think Bingo’s approach of looking to see what the stats say and seeing if it makes sense with what is seen on the ice. They seemed to track what I saw but that is probably confirmation bias.

The NHL has already started testing technology to track various player metrics, so I'm hoping including a value judgement on the shots taken is in their pipeline. AI technology would already be able to do this now given a large enough dataset and if implemented properly, its results would only get better and better.