Russia invades Ukraine

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What a 3rd world #### hole Russia is

That's the kind of thing you expect to see in a country desperately defending itself, throwing everything they have at the invaders. It's not really what an invading army should be doing...

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

Men told the army will not provide sleeping bags or any medical supplies. They have to ask their grannies to send them tourniquets or raid their cars for first aid kids. The army provides nothing but uniforms and "armor".

They are told to ask their wives and girlfriends to give them tampons and pads to plug bullet wounds

This is really sad. These poor guys are being treated like cannon fodder and told they don't even qualify for proper equipment as they are being prepped to be sent off to be killed or maimed. We shouldn't be taking any joy from this regardless of what has happened before. This is tragic.

Also, don't discount the efficacy of women's hygiene products as crude battle dressings. They've been proven extremely effective and have saved lives. Better to go into battle with those on hand than with nothing at all and end up bleeding out from a wound that may have been survivable with basic first supplies to stop bleeding and dress a wound. Use what you have available rather than cry about what you don't. Again, this is tragic to see regardless of which side of the conflict you are on.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

This is really sad. These poor guys are being treated like cannon fodder and told they don't even qualify for proper equipment as they are being prepped to be sent off to be killed or maimed. We shouldn't be taking any joy from this regardless of what has happened before. This is tragic.

Also, don't discount the efficacy of women's hygiene products as crude battle dressings. They've been proven extremely effective and have saved lives. Better to go into battle with those on hand than with nothing at all and end up bleeding out from a wound that may have been survivable with basic first supplies to stop bleeding and dress a wound. Use what you have available rather than cry about what you don't. Again, this is tragic to see regardless of which side of the conflict you are on.

tragic, but wholly avoidable.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

What a 3rd world #### hole Russia is

Well yes, but if we assume Putin is ruthless, short of supplies but not a complete idiot, then this would be the obvious plan, roughly;

Draft 300k men. Divide them into three batches.

The first batch just gets thrown to the grinder. 100k new men should be more than enough to make sure Ukraine doesn't advance much before the winter, considering the front currently has something like 100-200k Russians. This first batch gets basically no supplies, there's no real need. These guys aren't supposed to last. Besides, at this point the Ukrainian civilians still have supplies, the Russians soldiers can just take them. It speeds up the ethnic cleansing quite nicely too. The primary need is for these guys to be at the front today, this week, this month. Beyond that it doesn't matter, mudseason will have arrived and that will put a stop to any quick advances. If these guys become POW's, that doesn't really matter either. Tens of thousands of POW's are going to just be a big drain on Ukrainian logistics, and processing them takes a lot of time and manpower. If the Ukrainians start treating them poorly because of frustration or lack of resources, all the better, that's a propaganda win.

Use the time the first batch buys to train the second batch a little. Then throw them to the grinder to make sure the line holds through the winter. This batch is supposed to last the winter, so they get what ever winter gear you might have. The families of these guys will also have time to round up some winter gear.

That should buy you a good six months to train the third batch of 100k men for spring, when the decisive fights are likely to happen. You also now have months to find gear for these guys, and once again the families of the soldiers will probably do much of that. It also gives a lot of time for the West to start forgetting the war and cut down on their support.

It's kind of basic logic, if you just remove any humanity from the equation. Use what you have lots of (human lives) to save on what you have a shortage of (equipment and time).

This could very well work.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Itse

Well yes, but if we assume Putin is ruthless, short of supplies but not a complete idiot, then this would be the obvious plan, roughly;

Draft 300k men. Divide them into three batches.

The first batch just gets thrown to the grinder. 100k new men should be more than enough to make sure Ukraine doesn't advance much before the winter, considering the front currently has something like 100-200k Russians. This first batch gets basically no supplies, there's no real need. These guys aren't supposed to last. Besides, at this point the Ukrainian civilians still have supplies, the Russians soldiers can just take them. It speeds up the ethnic cleansing quite nicely too. The primary need is for these guys to be at the front today, this week, this month. Beyond that it doesn't matter. If they become POW's, that doesn't really matter either. Tens of thousands of POW's are going to just be a big drain on Ukrainian logistics, and processing them takes a lot of time and manpower. If the Ukrainians start treating them poorly because of frustration or lack of resources, all the better, that's a propaganda win.

Use the time the first batch buys to train the second batch a little. Then throw them to the grinder to make sure the line holds through the winter. This batch is supposed to last the winter, so they get what ever winter gear you might have. The families of these guys will also have time to round up some winter gear.

That should buy you a good six months to train the third batch of 100k men for spring, when the decisive fights are likely to happen. You also now have months to find gear for these guys, and once again the families of the soldiers will probably do much of that.

It's kind of basic logic, if you just remove any humanity from the equation.

If use you what you have lots of (human lives) to save on what you have a shortage of (equipment and time).

I guess what I meant was 3rd world in that for years and years the military system in Russia has been built on skimming money and building a paper army instead of a fully functioning modern fighting force.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Hack&Lube

https://twitter.com/user/status/1574476679539527680

Men told the army will not provide sleeping bags or any medical supplies. They have to ask their grannies to send them tourniquets or raid their cars for first aid kids. The army provides nothing but uniforms and "armor".

They are told to ask their wives and girlfriends to give them tampons and pads to plug bullet wounds

This whole thing is such a PR disaster for Russia. Prior to this war, I perceived Russia as a military powerhouse that would be able to use sheer numbers to go toe to toe with any army in the world. I assumed their equipment was a small notch below what the USA has, but comparable.

Now we see the truth. They are an undermanned and undersupplied force that hasn't had meaningful updates in decades. I'd take dozens of modern armies in a 1 vs 1 conflict with them. Taking out less developed nations like Georgia appears to be the limit of their abilities. Even then, they appear to have little ability to hold onto newly acquired territories.

This war has not only exposed Russia, but clearly depleted what forces and equipment they do have, and there's no will or ability within their country to replenish their military.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I guess what I meant was 3rd world in that for years and years the military system in Russia has been built on skimming money and building a paper army instead of a fully functioning modern fighting force.

Totally agreed.

It's also incredibly how the Russian population just keeps putting up with these strategies, war after war.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by activeStick

My uneducated guess is that the US is involved in this somehow. Either in doing it themselves or in leading the effort and planning to get this done...

No they would gain nothing from it, this is Russia trying to show Germany/the EU how vunerable they are, it is an object lesson in how they cant rely on their pipelines from Norway and the North Sea.

Russia is thrashing around like drunken dumped crazy ex right now, not much of what it is doing is logical or sensible so you can expect a few more dumb moves

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

I guess what I meant was 3rd world in that for years and years the military system in Russia has been built on skimming money and building a paper army instead of a fully functioning modern fighting force.

I think my definition of "3rd world" is any country that still widely uses Oxen/other livestock in agriculture. And of course...routinely s**t in the streets.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Yikes

I think my definition of "3rd world" is any country that still widely uses Oxen/other livestock in agriculture. And of course...routinely s**t in the streets.

So we are agreed, Russia.


Don't kid yourself, at best it is 2nd world.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by blankall

This whole thing is such a PR disaster for Russia. Prior to this war, I perceived Russia as a military powerhouse that would be able to use sheer numbers to go toe to toe with any army in the world. I assumed their equipment was a small notch below what the USA has, but comparable.

Now we see the truth. They are an undermanned and undersupplied force that hasn't had meaningful updates in decades. I'd take dozens of modern armies in a 1 vs 1 conflict with them. Taking out less developed nations like Georgia appears to be the limit of their abilities. Even then, they appear to have little ability to hold onto newly acquired territories.

This war has not only exposed Russia, but clearly depleted what forces and equipment they do have, and there's no will or ability within their country to replenish their military.

This is always how it goes for Russia. Their military completely falls apart in times of peace, war breaks out, they get embarrassed, but historically if the war drags on long enough they get their act together (Or have a revolution)

[nik-]

The Ukrainians are going to #### this next wave of conscripts so hard it might register on international seismographs. I almost feel bad for them. Almost.

[nik-]

Originally Posted by btimbit

This is always how it goes for Russia. Their military completely falls apart in times of peace, war breaks out, they get embarrassed, but historically if the war drags on long enough they get their act together (Or have a revolution)

Yeah, historically was once, and because the Americans were pumping materiel into their country. It's most likely the latter.

[btimbit]

Well, not just once, but I agree more likely the latter

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

So we are agreed, Russia.


Don't kid yourself, at best it is 2nd world.

I mean, (assuming we can say Russia is the successor to the USSR) it is literally the definition of 2nd world.

[CroFlames]

The mobilization is obviously huge news, but I don't think lack of man power on the battlefield was the problem for the Russians. It was lack of leadership, logistics and high tech weaponry.

As long as the west keeps materiel flowing into Ukraine, the Russians will get pummeled, not matter their numbers. They might inflict some extra damage on Ukrainian forces with 300k extra men, but ultimately they still will achieve none of their goals.

Not even Serbia will recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk referendums.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

No they would gain nothing from it, this is Russia trying to show Germany/the EU how vunerable they are, it is an object lesson in how they cant rely on their pipelines from Norway and the North Sea.



Russia is thrashing around like drunken dumped crazy ex right now, not much of what it is doing is logical or sensible so you can expect a few more dumb moves

Funny thing is the impact of the pipeline going up on EU energy markets is zero since flow was shut off already and this is just pressurized gas in the lines.

But yea, the number of countries that could precisely destroy these concrete encased deep under sea pipelines is very slim. Russia's probably flailing about trying to imply they would do anything and there is no going back.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Not even Serbia will recognize the Luhansk and Donetsk referendums.

No real disagreement with the rest, but I wish to point out that Serbia can't possibly agree to split country referendums under any circumstance, as it would require them to dispense of Kosovo and potentially surrounding territory. Possibly it would even open them up to worse #### internally. China also notably won't accept this (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Tibet, XinJiang, etc.) It's a confusing play politically because everyone knows it's a sham and even their "allies" (more, not-enemies) are telling them it's a ####ing stupid and pointless idea.

But, it's not for anyone else. Russia seemingly is only hoping to buy justification from a portion of their own populace to use some sort of nuclear weapon to defend this territory post referenda. This comes straight from the mouth of Medvedev, and frankly there's no reason to really doubt this is their current trajectory. US has notably stepped up their "DO NOT NUKE ANYWHERE" rhetoric recently, not just the don't nuke nato territory, so they may believe this is the likely trajectory as well.

And now we wait with baited breath.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I don't know, it doesn't really change anything in the short term for Germany. Nord Stream 2 was never even completed and Nord Stream 1 has been inactive for a month with no signs of gas flows restarting. So the situation you're talking about already exists.

Well yes, blowing them up is meaningless in the short term.

That's why I think we have to assume it was blown up by someone who's thinking about potential situations in the future, and I really don't see what other reason could there be. Blowing up Nord Stream 2 is especially pointless in the short term. Why blow up something under construction? To make sure it doesn't get finished. (That pipeline was extremely close to being finished btw.) Who would finish it, potentially, other than Germany and Russia.

Let's remember, the whole point of building Nord Stream was to make pumping gas through Poland and Ukraine mostly obsolete. Those two countries have been against the project from the start, since they've been getting quite a nice income from their cut of that trade. Finishing Nord Stream 2 would have also allowed for Russia to cut gas from anyone in Eastern Europe without affecting their business with Germany.

That pipeline is all about geopolitical power, and Poland has every interest to blow up those pipes. (Same goes for Ukrainians, but I don't see them pulling an operation in the Baltic Sea right now.)

So yeah. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that it was the Polish. Oh, and btw, US had put tough sanctions around this project during Trumps presidency, so the US hating this project goes back quite some time. Biden has also vocally been opposed to it (although softer on it economically), so there's really not much reason for US to do anything about an operation like this.

[nik-]

I'm going to place a bet on Russian incompetence. It pays out the lowest, but it's the safest play.