Russia invades Ukraine

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Not to give Putin any ideas, but a shrewd dictator would have the conscription officers waiting at the boarding gate, escorting each of these men directly to the training barracks.

Stalin was never clever enough to have the Ukrainians wipe out his enemies. He had to do his purges the old fashioned way, himself. Putin efficiency is unmatched.

[OldDutch]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Probably Medvedev or Lavrov, but I'm just throwing darts.

I have to think that no matter who the successor is, they immediately distance themselves from Putin's legacy and reach across the aisle to NATO, EU & US to try to end the conflict and normalize relations. Surely, even at this point the most fanatical Putin fans are sick of losing and their young men dying that they are willing to end quickly. If embarrassment is preventing peach, ending it will be less embarrassing than continually getting whooped on the battlefield.

Always stay hopeful, but the culture doesn't support strong ties with the west. I get it too, the US if they could would do what they do, pillage.

Ideal would be the introduction of reforms to a social state like Sweden. It has the resource wealth. Not sure if that is even possible however. Seems to get derailed by cronyism

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

Always stay hopeful, but the culture doesn't support strong ties with the west. I get it too, the US if they could would do what they do, pillage.

Ideal would be the introduction of reforms to a social state like Sweden. It has the resource wealth. Not sure if that is even possible however. Seems to get derailed by cronyism

I was unclear what I meant.

I didn't mean solidifying ties with the West, I meant more that whoever the new leader is should try to normalize relations as much as possible to a) end the war and b) lift the sanctions against Russia.

I mean, what other option is there for them? Status quo is not sustainable.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Not to give Putin any ideas, but a shrewd dictator would have the conscription officers waiting at the boarding gate, escorting each of these men directly to the training barracks.

This would give people no choice but to revolt. Vast majority of conscripts can't afford a plane ticket (prices have skyrocketed) or don't have skills or language required to live in exile. They stay inside, open borders or not. Some days Putin intentionally let middle class flee.

[CroFlames]

Pointman, is it possible to just get into your car and drive East into oblivion to avoid conscription? Like out by that massive river in Siberia, Lena river?

Or would they still get you out there.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I guess those who couldn’t afford to fly out of the country at a moments notice just had their odds of being conscripted go up.

Frustrating situation as I empathize with people not wanting to be forced into military service, but these same people didn’t give a damn about what their country was doing until it was going to potentially affect them.

I think you under estimate how difficult and hopeless it can be to do anything. Refusing to fight is at least something and abandoning the country is still a noble and brave form of protest. A lot of people from diasporas end up returning home one day once they have the ability and means to actually do something. They're no good to anyone dead or in prison.

[sureLoss]

Originally Posted by mivdo

How long would it reasonably take to bring conscripted soldiers to the war? At the rate that Ukraine is moving along, it might not even matter. Professional troops are being over run. What more inexperienced, out of shape, under equipped conscripts?

I have read there is supposedly a Russian law that conscripts can't be sent into combat until they have at least 4 months of training or service.

The Kremlin will probably change the law or skirt around it if they feel they need the men faster than that.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by sureLoss

I have read there is supposedly a Russian law that conscripts can't be sent into combat until they have at least 4 months of training or service.

The Kremlin will probably change the law or skirt around it if they feel they need the men faster than that.

I'm pretty sure they're well past caring about that...

[Hack&Lube]

Disturbing reports that protestors are being arrested and drafted immediately at police stations.

[puckedoff]

If the russian army has to exist, maybe it is better to be filled with anti-war protestors who will surrender and turn over what equipment and tanks Russia has left.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by puckedoff

If the russian army has to exist, maybe it is better to be filled with anti-war protestors who will surrender and turn over what equipment and tanks Russia has left.

Except, it could be a 10-year prison sentence to surrender now.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Except, it could be a 10-year prison sentence to surrender now.

I think I'd rather spend 10 years in prison than face a battle tested Ukrainian military with NATO guns point in my face.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I’d say it’s pretty obviously the case here.

Impressive that you can glean so much information about an individual's perspective, on the other side of the world, in a circumstance you haven't experienced, from a picture.

Absolutely people should protest something like that. It’d actually be refreshing to see our country hold an anti Trudeau protest that actually had some merit to it.

Cool, but we're not exactly talking about protesting in Canada here.

I'll fully admit that you're a better man than me (and apparently all of the men in the photo) if you're willing to stay in Russia and protest. I wouldn't have been protesting and I'd be trying to leave too. [/quote]

I don’t blame them for leaving, I just feel bad for the people who are stuck and now have worse odds of being sent to die in a pointless conflict and believe a mass exodus holds back any chance of a political revolt against Putin.

Agreed.

[FlameOn]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Except, it could be a 10-year prison sentence to surrender now.

Ukrainians offer citizenship in the country, thousands for surrendered tanks, so there is an alternative if you can away with the equipment.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

Except, it could be a 10-year prison sentence to surrender now.

Surrender and claim political asylum. Basically defection in the old school cold war playbook.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Surrender and claim political asylum. Basically defection in the old school cold war playbook.

That assumes Ukraine wants them.

I don't see them providing political asylum to soldiers that surrender.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

That assumes Ukraine wants them.

I don't see them providing political asylum to soldiers that surrender.

Agreed, it's not in Ukraine's best interests at this point to welcome a larger Russian demographic that could just become problematic again in another generation.

But it is also in their best interests to do what they can to promote desertion and emigration of Russians. They should allow them in to either join the Russian partisans working in Ukraine or give them time to find asylum somewhere else. Honestly, Canada should be offering asylum to anyone not willing to fight for Putin. We do it for practically every other country in the world when they have similar situations.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1573000111680004098

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

That assumes Ukraine wants them.

I don't see them providing political asylum to soldiers that surrender.

It's not a strategy for the Ukraine government, it's a strategy for the Russian combatant who is in fear for their life if they are returned to Mother Russia. The intent is receive some type of protected status that would forbid them being turned over back to the Russian government. I do believe by claiming political asylum they become a refugee rather than just a prisoner of war and by the principle of non-refoulement established at the Geneva Convention they are protected from possible return. Could be wrong though, but if I were in the situation these Russians are in, I'd be trying to use the articles of the convention to my advantage.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

https://twitter.com/user/status/1573000111680004098

Holy crap. That is diabolical, evil, and brilliant all at the same time. That is Hitler-esque in design and action.