Russia invades Ukraine

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by Pointman

As of right now, public backlash is actually less than it was at the start of the war on February.

We can see by the news that they're receiving from state media that they're completely indoctrinated as to what's going on.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by jayswin

We can see by the news that they're receiving from state media that they're completely indoctrinated as to what's going on.

I don't think that's true.

Russians are extremely capable of widespread scepticism towards Kremlin when they choose.

Like when they didn't want to get vaccinated with Russian covid vaccines.

Or when they've been fleeing the country by the millions when the government is telling them everything is fine.

Millions run and hide, thousands stand up for themselves.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by jayswin

We can see by the news that they're receiving from state media that they're completely indoctrinated as to what's going on.

While this is true, internet is still available in Russia. For example, Russian Wikipedia has a fairly accurate narrative of the war. The page for the battle of Kyiv lists Ukraine as the winner. The Gostomel airport debacle is covered quite honestly. Russians are not oblivious to what is actually happening. They just don't or can't do much about it.

[Pointman]

I have bought my tickets out of the country for the Friday -Saturnday night. Planes are all sold out, I will get out by train. Only three seats left when I bought it. I am monitoring channels dedicated to the status of the border control. As of right now, men CAN leave the country. Everyone says that this can change every hour. My wife and kids stay behind. The plan is to make it to Israel and try to prove my Jewish ancestry to get citizenship (I do in fact have Jewish ancestry). Wife and kids will join me lately. Despite all this, I am still somewhat nervous and not sure whether to carry out with this plan, nor whether I will be able to exit the country in Friday night.

[icarus]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I have bought my tickets out of the country for the Friday -Saturnday night. Planes are all sold out, I will get out by train. Only three seats left when I bought it. I am monitoring channels dedicated to the status of the border control. As of right now, men CAN leave the country. Everyone says that this can change every hour. My wife and kids stay behind. The plan is to make it to Israel and try to prove my Jewish ancestry to get citizenship (I do in fact have Jewish ancestry). Wife and kids will join me lately. Despite all this, I am still somewhat nervous and not sure whether to carry out with this plan, nor whether I will be able to exit the country in Friday night.

Godspeed Pointman. Wishing absolute safety for you and your family, may your reunion be swift.

[mivdo]

How long would it reasonably take to bring conscripted soldiers to the war? At the rate that Ukraine is moving along, it might not even matter. Professional troops are being over run. What more inexperienced, out of shape, under equipped conscripts?

[blankall]

This is going to be disastrous for Russia. They are facing a major demographic crisis. If even a million young people emigrate it's going to quickly accelerate that process.

I'm pretty baffled by this. I vastly underestimated Putin's willingness to drive his own country into the ground.

[Cheese]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I have bought my tickets out of the country for the Friday -Saturnday night. Planes are all sold out, I will get out by train. Only three seats left when I bought it. I am monitoring channels dedicated to the status of the border control. As of right now, men CAN leave the country. Everyone says that this can change every hour. My wife and kids stay behind. The plan is to make it to Israel and try to prove my Jewish ancestry to get citizenship (I do in fact have Jewish ancestry). Wife and kids will join me lately. Despite all this, I am still somewhat nervous and not sure whether to carry out with this plan, nor whether I will be able to exit the country in Friday night.

Best of Luck Pointy, rooting for you and your family!

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by Pointman

I have bought my tickets out of the country for the Friday -Saturnday night. Planes are all sold out, I will get out by train. Only three seats left when I bought it. I am monitoring channels dedicated to the status of the border control. As of right now, men CAN leave the country. Everyone says that this can change every hour. My wife and kids stay behind. The plan is to make it to Israel and try to prove my Jewish ancestry to get citizenship (I do in fact have Jewish ancestry). Wife and kids will join me lately. Despite all this, I am still somewhat nervous and not sure whether to carry out with this plan, nor whether I will be able to exit the country in Friday night.

Hoping the best for you man. This isn't an easy choice and you and your family are definitely in our thoughts. It goes without saying that if there is anything any of us can do to help, please DM or post. You're one of the good guys and deserve freedom for you and your family.

[Fuzz]

A new law was introduced in the State Duma on Tuesday that, in the institute's words, "codifies dramatically increased penalties for desertion, refusing conscription orders, and insubordination."


Significantly, it also "criminalizes voluntary surrender and makes surrender a crime punishable by ten years in prison."


Putin, in other words, is telling Russian soldiers to fight to the death — or else.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/ukr...590669?cmp=rss

[OldDutch]

This has to be the beginning of the end for Putin. I feel things will happen suddenly and we wake up to the news any day now.

The problem is what comes next. Does Russia even know how to do anything else?

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by OldDutch

This has to be the beginning of the end for Putin. I feel things will happen suddenly and we wake up to the news any day now.

The problem is what comes next. Does Russia even know how to do anything else?

Probably Medvedev or Lavrov, but I'm just throwing darts.

I have to think that no matter who the successor is, they immediately distance themselves from Putin's legacy and reach across the aisle to NATO, EU & US to try to end the conflict and normalize relations. Surely, even at this point the most fanatical Putin fans are sick of losing and their young men dying that they are willing to end quickly. If embarrassment is preventing peach, ending it will be less embarrassing than continually getting whooped on the battlefield.

[Cheese]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1572917728775741444

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Cheese

https://twitter.com/user/status/1572917728775741444

I guess those who couldn’t afford to fly out of the country at a moments notice just had their odds of being conscripted go up.

Frustrating situation as I empathize with people not wanting to be forced into military service, but these same people didn’t give a damn about what their country was doing until it was going to potentially affect them.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by mivdo

How long would it reasonably take to bring conscripted soldiers to the war? At the rate that Ukraine is moving along, it might not even matter. Professional troops are being over run. What more inexperienced, out of shape, under equipped conscripts?

Russia still has plenty of troops left unfortunately. Kharkiv was a big win, but for the most part the fronts haven't been moving much, and Russia still controls about 20% of Ukraine. Once mud season comes in again, making big gains will be very hard until next spring, although that depends a ton on what the winter is going to be like. (Cold is good, snow is bad, etc.)

Russians have already been throwing troops to the front with minimal training, and will keep doing it most likely. Pretty bad troops can hold a line as long as there's enough of them.

If Kremlin has any brains left, they'll throw some forces in there as a stopgap while training the rest, then bringing in fresh, somewhat trained troops in the spring. Not great troops, but fresh and with a few months of training at least.

Unless the Russian front suffers a complete collapse of battle morale (far from impossible) or the country suffers an economic collapse (seems increasingly possible, but not likely), the war will likely drag on until next summer at the very least.

Russia might suck in multiple ways, but they're still a really big bear to skin.

[you&me]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I guess those who couldn’t afford to fly out of the country at a moments notice just had their odds of being conscripted go up.

Frustrating situation as I empathize with people not wanting to be forced into military service, but these same people didn’t give a damn about what their country was doing until it was going to potentially affect them.

That's hard to say.

What if Trudeau were to start a war with the US to annex New Hampshire tomorrow? We (Canada) are in the wrong and getting our butts kicked, but you're 1,000s of kms away... What do you do? Protest? Leave the country or day one? Day 50? Or do you stay and live your life, going about your relatively unaltered daily routine?

Just as with Pointman, I don't blame any of those men that are fleeing today. It's what I'd be doing.

[chemgear]

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Cheese

https://twitter.com/user/status/1572917728775741444

Wonder what percentage of these dudes had Z avatars on VK

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by you&me

That's hard to say.

I’d say it’s pretty obviously the case here.

What if Trudeau were to start a war with the US to annex New Hampshire tomorrow? We (Canada) are in the wrong and getting our butts kicked, but you're 1,000s of kms away... What do you do? Protest? Leave the country or day one? Day 50? Or do you stay and live your life, going about your relatively unaltered daily routine?

Absolutely people should protest something like that. It’d actually be refreshing to see our country hold an anti Trudeau protest that actually had some merit to it.

Just as with Pointman, I don't blame any of those men that are fleeing today. It's what I'd be doing.

I don’t blame them for leaving, I just feel bad for the people who are stuck and now have worse odds of being sent to die in a pointless conflict and believe a mass exodus holds back any chance of a political revolt against Putin.

[Fuzz]

Not to give Putin any ideas, but a shrewd dictator would have the conscription officers waiting at the boarding gate, escorting each of these men directly to the training barracks.