[News] Tkachuk notifies Flames he won't sign long term (The Athletic)

[Wood]

Has New Jersey came up as a frontrunner? They're the team I'd like to deal with the most

I think a package of Holtz + 2023 1st with one of Bratt or Mercer would be great. I'd throw in a pick or prospect as well to make sure it's a 2023 1st and not 2024

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by madmike

It’s possible he stays for part of the year, but I think it would be awkward. There’s a significant risk the fans turn on him for announcing he wants out. Would be very awkward if he starts getting booed by the home crowd.

There's also a big risk his production falls thus depreciating his value

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by devo22

you're not getting all of Bratt, Holtz and Mercer. I think Bratt + Holtz + a protected 1st would be a decent enough framework to work with.

I agree with you, if we get to that point in negotiation we can barter away the pick protection....

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

The one thing we should keep in mind is when we talk about protected 1sts, that typically means the trading team has the option to keep the next pick and provide the pick from the following year. Though everyone is rightly focused on 2023, what that does create is the opportunity for that pick to be even higher in the future. For instance I think that it worked out really well for the Sens
A protected 1st isn't necessarily a bad thing.

Usually when it is a protected first you get something extra if they bump it a year.

Something like 2023 1st and if it is moved to 2024 then a 2024 1st and a 2024 2nd or 3rd.

[Lanny_McDonald]

What is missing in all of these proposals is cap management. Team's taking on Tkachuk have to see a balance in what they are bringing in and what is going out. This is where things get dicey and why it becomes difficult. You can throw together assets and say it's a deal, but if the cap doesn't work, then you're not going to get a deal done. Here's an example of the hoops that would have to be jumped through.

To Calgary: $19.25Mish in

Jesper Bratt (RFA, expected in the $5-6M range)
Damon Severson ($4.166M)
Ryan Graves ($3.166M)
Jonathan Bernier ($4.125M IR)
Dawson Mercer ($895K)
Alexander Holtz ($895K)
1st round pick 2023

To New Jersey: $17Mish in.

Matthew Tkachuk (RFA, expected in the $9.5-10.5M range)
Noah Hanifin ($4.95M)
Juuso Valimaki ($1.55M)
2024 1st round pick - top 10 protected (goes to 2025 1st if top 10 in 2024)

There is some obvious shuffling of the deck chairs in this deal to make the cap work. New Jersey comes out with a couple million to play with to fill in gaps. The Flames get really good future pieces and the Devils get great immediate pieces. Calgary also get a number of veteran players they can move at the deadline for 2023 draft picks, which is why the 2024/2025 pick is on the table. We get Bratt as compensation for making the cap work and New Jersey stays fairly whole in the long run with the picks they are going bleed. Calgary has to carry some salary (Bernier on LTIR) to earn some value, but they will have the space to do that.

Big, complex, and difficult to work. If the Flames really want to get the assets they want, this is how a deal is likely to shake out. Thinking we can ship out a $10M player and not be expected to bring similar dollars back doesn't seem realistic in this cap era.

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Wood

Has New Jersey came up as a frontrunner? They're the team I'd like to deal with the most

I think a package of Holtz + 2023 1st with one of Bratt or Mercer would be great. I'd throw in a pick or prospect as well to make sure it's a 2023 1st and not 2024

Mercer + Holtz + 2023 1st would be an amazing package.

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yup, if that is the best offer then hold till the deadline

It's an option but the return will be even less.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's an option but the return will be even less.

I don't think it gets much less than a late first and Neighbors though. Neighbors isn't a can't miss prospect in my opinion

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's an option but the return will be even less.

And injury risk

[Saqe]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don't think it gets much less than a late first and Neighbors though. Neighbors isn't a can't miss prospect in my opinion

Well he's then purely a rental. Plus like others have said, his production will almost certainly drop without Gaudreau.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don't think it gets much less than a late first and Neighbors though. Neighbors isn't a can't miss prospect in my opinion

can't miss but i'm not sure of his upside.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

What is missing in all of these proposals is cap management. Team's taking on Tkachuk have to see a balance in what they are bringing in and what is going out. This is where things get dicey and why it becomes difficult. You can throw together assets and say it's a deal, but if the cap doesn't work, then you're not going to get a deal done. Here's an example of the hoops that would have to be jumped through.

To Calgary: $19.25Mish in

Jesper Bratt (RFA, expected in the $5-6M range)
Damon Severson ($4.166M)
Ryan Graves ($3.166M)
Jonathan Bernier ($4.125M IR)
Dawson Mercer ($895K)
Alexander Holtz ($895K)
1st round pick 2023

To New Jersey: $17Mish in.

Matthew Tkachuk (RFA, expected in the $9.5-10.5M range)
Noah Hanifin ($4.95M)
Juuso Valimaki ($1.55M)
2024 1st round pick - top 10 protected (goes to 2025 1st if top 10 in 2024)

There is some obvious shuffling of the deck chairs in this deal to make the cap work. New Jersey comes out with a couple million to play with to fill in gaps. The Flames get really good future pieces and the Devils get great immediate pieces. Calgary also get a number of veteran players they can move at the deadline for 2023 draft picks, which is why the 2024/2025 pick is on the table. We get Bratt as compensation for making the cap work and New Jersey stays fairly whole in the long run with the picks they are going bleed. Calgary has to carry some salary (Bernier on LTIR) to earn some value, but they will have the space to do that.

Big, complex, and difficult to work. If the Flames really want to get the assets they want, this is how a deal is likely to shake out. Thinking we can ship out a $10M player and not be expected to bring similar dollars back doesn't seem realistic in this cap era.

I would prefer to not have our 2024 1st in the deal, but that would be a half decent trade. If the 2024 1st becomes a 2nd or 3rd I could be on board for that.

If the Flames did something big like that they would have 3 solid lines to roll, which is not bad in a Sutter system where he always rolls 4 lines. Getting three NHL forwards for one definitely helps the depth aspect.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Yup, if that is the best offer then hold till the deadline

Originally Posted by Saqe

It's an option but the return will be even less.

Moving Tkachuk at the trade deadline is going to kill the value he has. If we want to get the maximum value out of him, he needs to be dealt before arbitration.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

What is missing in all of these proposals is cap management. Team's taking on Tkachuk have to see a balance in what they are bringing in and what is going out. This is where things get dicey and why it becomes difficult. You can throw together assets and say it's a deal, but if the cap doesn't work, then you're not going to get a deal done. Here's an example of the hoops that would have to be jumped through.

To Calgary: $19.25Mish in

Jesper Bratt (RFA, expected in the $5-6M range)
Damon Severson ($4.166M)
Ryan Graves ($3.166M)
Jonathan Bernier ($4.125M IR)
Dawson Mercer ($895K)
Alexander Holtz ($895K)
1st round pick 2023

To New Jersey: $17Mish in.

Matthew Tkachuk (RFA, expected in the $9.5-10.5M range)
Noah Hanifin ($4.95M)
Juuso Valimaki ($1.55M)
2024 1st round pick - top 10 protected (goes to 2025 1st if top 10 in 2024)

There is some obvious shuffling of the deck chairs in this deal to make the cap work. New Jersey comes out with a couple million to play with to fill in gaps. The Flames get really good future pieces and the Devils get great immediate pieces. Calgary also get a number of veteran players they can move at the deadline for 2023 draft picks, which is why the 2024/2025 pick is on the table. We get Bratt as compensation for making the cap work and New Jersey stays fairly whole in the long run with the picks they are going bleed. Calgary has to carry some salary (Bernier on LTIR) to earn some value, but they will have the space to do that.

Big, complex, and difficult to work. If the Flames really want to get the assets they want, this is how a deal is likely to shake out. Thinking we can ship out a $10M player and not be expected to bring similar dollars back doesn't seem realistic in this cap era.

I don't know why you have to make it that complicated and add in a boatload more pieces from the Calgary side. The Devils have a bunch of space and if they need cap space you just add Tatar or Johnson from the Devils for cap purposes and you don't need to bring in 10 other players.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I would prefer to not have our 2024 1st in the deal, but that would be a half decent trade. If the 2024 1st becomes a 2nd or 3rd I could be on board for that.

It's an enticement to get Jersey to jump. I believe we get great value out of this trade and it really provides some core pieces moving forward. Coming out of this with Bratt, Mercer, Holtz, and then the two 1sts in 2023 (ours and Jersey's) really gives out system a massive boost. Add those guys to Pelletier, Zary, Coronato, Wolf, Kuznetsov, Poirier and company, and the light at the end of the tunnel looks less like a freight train.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Moving Tkachuk at the trade deadline is going to kill the value he has. If we want to get the maximum value out of him, he needs to be dealt before arbitration.

But if Neighbors + 1st is the best offer do you think the Flames should take it?

[Sofa GM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

But if Neighbors + 1st is the best offer do you think the Flames should take it?

There will be better offers than this.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bonded

But if Neighbors + 1st is the best offer do you think the Flames should take it?

That is a deadline offer. Treliving has to be able to get more than one team involved in this process.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

And at least fix my random capitalized letter in my username. LoL

Random capitalized letter 4LIfe!

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Wood

Has New Jersey came up as a frontrunner? They're the team I'd like to deal with the most

I think a package of Holtz + 2023 1st with one of Bratt or Mercer would be great. I'd throw in a pick or prospect as well to make sure it's a 2023 1st and not 2024

Either pick will be protected in any event.