Seravalli: Gaudreau has informed the Flames he will not return

[agulati]

Originally Posted by Muta

Plan B - time to bring home Brayden Point and Cale Makar.

FIGURE IT OUT BRAD

Couldn’t even get Taylor Hall to come home when he was a UFA.

[Flames Fan, Ph.D.]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

...what a useless conversation this is then.

I'm saying you need something to act as the foundation to build a championship team otherwise you're an outlier and your odds of success are greatly reduced. I'm pulling what the basis for that foundation should be based on similarities with championship teams in recent history.

and you just...don't believe in anything but luck. So there's no point in planning a roster or hiring good coaches because you can't account for the fact that you just need bounces. Maybe we can sign James Neal, Troy Brouwer, a 48 year old Cale Hulse and have them coached by Glen Gulutzan and they stand just as good a chance as a Joe Sakic crafted roster because they may get lucky. Neat.

Not only are you not reading what Jay Random is writing, relying on high draft picks is the epitome of relying on luck. You have to rely on the luck that your ball will be pulled out of a tumbler, with the best odds of getting #1 being around 25%. And then you're relying on more luck that the year you get that high pick is more like 2015 and less like 2012.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by agulati

18 minutes for possible change of heart?

Perhaps we're all being Punk'd? Ashton Kutcher is going to jump out at 9:59 with a signed Gaudreau contract with the Flames?

I'm not holding out hope.

[N-E-B]

New arena deal cancelled. Get spanked by our biggest rival in the playoffs. Best player since Iginla leaves.

Hell of a run we’ve been on here.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Muta

Plan B - time to bring home Brayden Point and Cale Makar.

FIGURE IT OUT BRAD

Yeahh easier said than done.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

I suppose you can spin the data any way you’d like to. If you’re against a rebuild, you’re against a rebuild.

I'm not spinning anything. This is basic statistics. Nine-tenths of the champions come from a group that inclludes nine-tenths of the teams… which is exactly what you would expect if the group is chosen completely at random. The data give no reason to reject the null hypothesis.

I’m not sure what else we need to see besides the hand we’ve been dealt. Knowing our odds of keeping our now best player are, at best, similar to the odds of keeping Johnny before today, what is it that you propose the Flames do to give themselves the best chance at winning a Stanley cup? Draft 12th-17th overall year after year (in the years we don’t trade our first) and hope to hit the lottery on late round picks?

Deliberately destroying the team for a hope of maybe picking one player in the top 3 gives you worse odds than that.

The franchise lacks prospect pipeline to bring top level talent into the mix anytime soon. They lack existing elite level talent, young players that project to become elite, and we’re a small market franchise that isn’t attractive to top level free agents unless you were born in these parts or we overpay.

If not now, at what point do you cut your losses and say the way we’ve been doing things in the history of our franchise isn’t working?

There isn't any plan that will work. The Calgary Flames exist to make up the numbers in the league. They're a small-market team on the wrong side of the 49th parallel. There is no recipe that will guarantee the Stanley Cup to any team in any time frame, but the odds against it are longer for the Flames than for almost anyone else.

You can, if you wish, ‘cut your losses’ by changing to a philosophy that will make the team worse than mediocre for years to come. There isn't any philosophy that will overcome the odds and make the team consistently better than average. If there were, every team would adopt it and the advantage woud be gone.

[FiveSeven]

Well. My engine blew up, my dog died and JG is gone.

Worst day of my life.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

And you are wrong.

Teams with top-3 picks: approximately 90% of the teams, 88% of the championships.

Teams without top-3 picks: approximately 10% of the teams, 12% of the championships.

There is no correlation. PLEASE, before you try to respond, look up ‘correlation’ and at least try to understand the plain meaning of what I am saying. You haven't twigged so far; all your replies keep straying further from the point.



This is what is called survivorship bias. By only looking at the successes, you do not determine what caused the success. You have to look at what is different between the successes and the failures, and the presence of top-3 picks is not that.



I know for absolutely certain that in a capped league, luck makes the difference between champions and also-rans.



Not what I said at all, but you do you.



Not what I said at all, but you do you.

It isn't just correlation that you don't understand, is it? Basic English sentences don't seem to be your strong suit either.

yeah okay buddy. Keep taking shots at me, enjoy.

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Originally Posted by Locke

Perhaps we're all being Punk'd? Ashton Kutcher is going to jump out at 9:59 with a signed Gaudreau contract with the Flames?

I'm not holding out hope.

No, no. It goes deeper than that. He isn’t signing before 10pm and it’s on purpose.

Johnny didn’t want 8 years. It would just handcuff the team. He’ll sign for 7 years instead. That’s why he waited this long. To take a lower term and AAV.

[Jaydee]

Originally Posted by n-e-b

new arena deal cancelled. Get spanked by our biggest rival in the playoffs. Best player since iginla leaves.

Hell of a run we’ve been on here.

lol

[codynw]

Can’t wait for them to pay Kadri 90 point money for him to go back to being a 60 point player.

[Otto-matic]

What other top swede UFA's are out there? Lets go full on team Sweden

[djsFlames]

A rare ####y blue sky summer day.

[Mephisto]

Originally Posted by FiveSeven

Well. My engine blew up, my dog died and JG is gone.

Worst day of my life.

that's terrible man - sorry to hear.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flames Fan, Ph.D.

...And then you're relying on more luck that the year you get that high pick is more like 2015 and less like 2012.

Yeah, this is the biggest kicker. And how mind-blowimg is it that the year the draft was fixed (2015) to prevent the incompetent loser team (the Oilers) abusing the system actually resulted in that team drafting the most coveted player since Sidney Crosby. Without even trying to tank for him, the Oilers were actually bad enough and somehow lucky enough to acquire the most difficult of assets to acquire.

The luck factor is extremely powerful and crucial to winning. Even with all of it working in their favour the Oilers are STILL a hilariously average team.


Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[Dajazz]

No surprise here. Too bad he wasn’t upfront with Treliving, could have fetched something or at least opened up for a plan B.

Now I hope he gets drilled by Lucic just like anyone else.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

yeah okay buddy. Keep taking shots at me, enjoy.

As long as you keep wilfully misconstruing what I say and ignoring what the facts actually tell you, you will fully deserve all the shots that you get.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Sandman

I gotta be honest, I’m livid with Tre and JG over this, but I’m also mad at all the people who told me I was an idiot for thinking that Johnny would be leaving, even 2 years ago. He was NEVER going to sign with us-Francis was right. All I heard was stuff like, “Johnny says he likes Calgary”, “Johnny says he’s open to an extension”, “so what, Johnny is just lying to us?”. On the other hand, Tre should have known this years ago, and acted accordingly.

Anyone certain John was going to stay for another 8 years has been living on Hope Street dot c aaaaa

[JurassicTunga12]

Originally Posted by Otto-matic

What other top swede UFA's are out there? Lets go full on team Sweden

Andre Burakovsky. I read that he’s best buds with Rasmus. So he might be one guy who is interested in coming here.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

Why don't these players ever want to come home to Calgary??
Why does that only work for Americans and Torontonians?

Because we can't compete with the allure of large metro areas, especially in the states, to any large degree.

It's no accident that a Canadian team hasnt won the Stanley Cup since the US sunbelt expansion started in earnest. Suddenly you have a plethora of warm weather us cities that in general (in general, not for everyone but overall, before someone gets triggered) are much more attractive to players. And then it doesn't help that most of those markets have no state tax component as well. If I'm Murray Edwards I'm seriously pushing at the next CBA for salary cap or compensation benefits unique to Canadian teams to try and overcome the immense geographical challenges we face. Yes, it's kind of commie, but the data is in. If I'm gonna own a team in this league then I can't keep getting my lunch eaten and hardwork down the drain because Tampa has no state tax and beautiful weather and the Flyers only have to get on a plane once every two weeks. F that