You keep coming back to thinking I'm making a statement about any sort of guarantee, I'm not.
You are guaranteeing that a team without top-3 picks cannot win the Stanley Cup. This is false.
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You need those foundational high-end picks and then you need to be one of if not the best managed teams in hockey. That's it. That's all. Simple, no?
Actually, that's not all. You also need puck luck at the right time, and not to be hobbled by injuries when you have a shot, and not to draw an opponent who knows your Achilles heel and can exploit it. NO plan can get you these things.
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You have to make those top picks (in the right year)...and then your management team needs to go on a heater and bring everything together.
It's not just management that has to go on a heater.
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I'm surprised we don't have a "Thank you, Johnny" thread up yet.
Hopefully some stoic soul is busy working away on one, populated with lots of AC highlight packages of our former star player. Most entertaining player the Flames have had since Fleury, IMO. We were lucky to have had him, and to have been able to watch his career since he was in Boston. Such a fun - if incomplete - journey.
The only reason to resign with Calgary would be money. The team isn’t built to win even with another year with the coach and Johnny at huge money. The next big signature is another winger not a center to run a line.
Yes I expect to lose both players of my team in the next while.
The last thing we need is some Oiler fan coming in here telling us the team was trash anyway. Read the room dude this isn’t the time.
Sad Johnny decided to leave - obv money wasn't the deciding factor here but I'm also pissed. It seems like he strung this team along on a hope and prayer that he would come back. Negotiating in bad faith to drive up his price tag for Philly/NJ
The only reason to resign with Calgary would be money. The team isn’t built to win even with another year with the coach and Johnny at huge money. The next big signature is another winger not a center to run a line.
Yes I expect to lose both players of my team in the next while.
TBQH whoever is getting JG is a getting a 55/45% Johnny right now.
For his hockey situation, I have zero doubt he'd prefer to be here, organization, freinds, linemates, coaches, good team, familiarity factor, fans and a decent chance to win in the next couple years.
Wherever he's going hes going to have an adjustment period, go through a few coaches re adjust and find linemates, and be on a crappier team in the short term. Not deal breakers but crap he had to deal with before and didn't do great with new coaches, especially Hartley,GG and Ward.
But the family situation and not reasonably having another opportunity like this to have the ability to live near to family for 9 months of the year for 7 more years trumps it all.
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You are guaranteeing that a team without top-3 picks cannot win the Stanley Cup. This is false.
Actually, that's not all. You also need puck luck at the right time, and not to be hobbled by injuries when you have a shot, and not to draw an opponent who knows your Achilles heel and can exploit it. NO plan can get you these things.
It's not just management that has to go on a heater.
...what a useless conversation this is then.
I'm saying you need something to act as the foundation to build a championship team otherwise you're an outlier and your odds of success are greatly reduced. I'm pulling what the basis for that foundation should be based on similarities with championship teams in recent history.
and you just...don't believe in anything but luck. So there's no point in planning a roster or hiring good coaches because you can't account for the fact that you just need bounces. Maybe we can sign James Neal, Troy Brouwer, a 48 year old Cale Hulse and have them coached by Glen Gulutzan and they stand just as good a chance as a Joe Sakic crafted roster because they may get lucky. Neat.
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I can honestly say I’m angry and a bit ticked off at Gaudreau. He could have been a little honest and instead did the worst possible by leveraging the Flames. No loyalty to the organization in any classy way. I say that’s on the agent more than anything but the agent is an extension of him. Perhaps a blessing in disguise but it also is an indicator of other players feelings toward management. Tkachuk is a goner I’d think. Flames have to do a calculated rebuild by dealing before the season begins to get the best chance of a high pick.
I gotta be honest, I’m livid with Tre and JG over this, but I’m also mad at all the people who told me I was an idiot for thinking that Johnny would be leaving, even 2 years ago. He was NEVER going to sign with us-Francis was right. All I heard was stuff like, “Johnny says he likes Calgary”, “Johnny says he’s open to an extension”, “so what, Johnny is just lying to us?”. On the other hand, Tre should have known this years ago, and acted accordingly.
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Let's try building the team properly this time, down the middle and on the back end.
Dig up a franchise C and franchise D to build around.
I am just pointing out that this is precisely how the last rebuild was mapped out: potential franchise centres in Monahan and Bennett. Potential franchise defensemen in Hamilton, Fox, and Andersson.
I have no problem with rebuilding eventually, but people need to be wary that even "proper" rebuilds go off the rails more often than they do not.
Rebuilding is hard and it requires incredible luck. A GM cannot "position" his team to acquire franchise players—especially not with the draft lottery as it is carried out now. The best he can do is draft and develop the best players he can as often as he can, and take advantage of maximizing the value of his assets when the opportunity presents itself and it makes sense. Otherwise, there is no chance of winning a championship unless he is also incredibly lucky. TB got lucky. So did Colorado. So did Pittsburgh. So did Chicago.
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Originally Posted by woob
"...harem warfare? like all your wives dressup and go paintballing?"
I'm saying you need something to act as the foundation to build a championship team otherwise you're an outlier and your odds of success are greatly reduced.
And you are wrong.
Teams with top-3 picks: approximately 90% of the teams, 88% of the championships.
Teams without top-3 picks: approximately 10% of the teams, 12% of the championships.
There is no correlation. PLEASE, before you try to respond, look up ‘correlation’ and at least try to understand the plain meaning of what I am saying. You haven't twigged so far; all your replies keep straying further from the point.
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I'm pulling what the basis for that foundation should be based on similarities with championship teams in recent history.
This is what is called survivorship bias. By only looking at the successes, you do not determine what caused the success. You have to look at what is different between the successes and the failures, and the presence of top-3 picks is not that.
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and you just...don't believe in anything but luck.
I know for absolutely certain that in a capped league, luck makes the difference between champions and also-rans.
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So there's no point in planning a roster or hiring good coaches because you can't account for the fact that you just need bounces.
Not what I said at all, but you do you.
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Maybe we can sign James Neal, Troy Brouwer, a 48 year old Cale Hulse and have them coached by Glen Gulutzan and they stand just as good a chance as a Joe Sakic crafted roster because they may get lucky. Neat.
Not what I said at all, but you do you.
It isn't just correlation that you don't understand, is it? Basic English sentences don't seem to be your strong suit either.
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It's an even bigger fool's errand to just twiddle your thumbs and resign yourself to losing until the lottery balls happen to fall your way.
It's not just about hoping to win a first overall pick, although that's definitely a far better target than a fourteenth overall pick. Even a fourth overall pick is a better target than a sixteenth overall pick.
It's about converting assets who don't fit a realistic contention window (Backlund, Tanev, Coleman, Toffoli) into pieces who someday will WHILE they still have high value.
It's about drafting high, drafting often, drafting well.
It's about valuing not only the part of the equation you see (roster) but also the part of the equation that does require patience (future cap flexibility, prospect pool, foundational core)
It's not necessarily a one-year and go solution. It takes time at the bottom to account for missed high picks (Bennett not panning out as planned) or failed attempts at higher picks (Monahan instead of MacKinnon).
No, there is no recipe for a Cup.
But there is a blueprint.
I just want the Flames to, for once in my life, follow the blueprint.
If we try that and fail to win a cup, at least we can say we tried.
But we've never tried in my lifetime.
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And what percentage of non-championship teams are built on top-3 prospects? Pretty similar, you'll find. There is no correlation.
I suppose you can spin the data any way you’d like to. If you’re against a rebuild, you’re against a rebuild.
I’m not sure what else we need to see besides the hand we’ve been dealt. Knowing our odds of keeping our now best player are, at best, similar to the odds of keeping Johnny before today, what is it that you propose the Flames do to give themselves the best chance at winning a Stanley cup? Draft 12th-17th overall year after year (in the years we don’t trade our first) and hope to hit the lottery on late round picks?
The franchise lacks prospect pipeline to bring top level talent into the mix anytime soon. They lack existing elite level talent, young players that project to become elite, and we’re a small market franchise that isn’t attractive to top level free agents unless you were born in these parts or we overpay.
If not now, at what point do you cut your losses and say the way we’ve been doing things in the history of our franchise isn’t working?
This news is disappointing for many reasons. Count me as someone who always thought Johnny was gone when this deal was up. I will admit his last 2 press conferences at the end of the 21 and 22 season gave me hope there was potential for him to stay. Maybe he was a really loyal guy after all? It is a real sour taste right now now doubt. The team got beat in 5 games by our hated rivals and now we lost our best player for nothing.
This core has been stripped away mostly losing players for nothing. The last 3 years Brodie, Gio, Gaudreau gone.
Can the team compete for a playoff spot? Ya probably if they keep the rest of their free agents but now we move from fringe contender to bubble team? I am with the rebuild crowd there is no coming back from this and somehow being better. In the moment I am ready to show Treliving the door never getting more than 5 playoff wins in a year and losing pieces for nothing.
This one stings. Any chance of renewing my season tickets has left the station. Best player since Iginla gone in half the time. I wish Johnny the best but I also wish he told the team sooner so they could pivot.
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18 minutes for possible change of heart?
