Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

This was also his performance in a contract year. Will he be this good again? Who knows? It was a standout year for him. Not as dramatic as Kadri's outlier year, but a substantial outlier nonetheless. He could be back below a PPG and have a negative +/- again next year, and be that way for the next 8 years while getting paid $11M and having a weaker roster around him because his contract is sucking up the cap money.

I've been assured that this is simply impossible.

If he does sign, I think a lot of the "a million is nothing" people will be singing a different tune within 1.5 years. Not necessarily because Johnny will be bad, but there is nothing to suggest this past year was sustainable.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

This was also his performance in a contract year. Will he be this good again? Who knows? It was a standout year for him. Not as dramatic as Kadri's outlier year, but a substantial outlier nonetheless. He could be back below a PPG and have a negative +/- again next year, and be that way for the next 8 years while getting paid $11M and having a weaker roster around him because his contract is sucking up the cap money.

Do you really believe that, or just intentionally being contrary to kill time.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Get it done, Johnny is more than worth 11 AAV IMO

It's tough to say.

He was last year for sure. But he wasn't in the prior two seasons.

To be worth $11M he really needs to be a consistent 100 point player, and really he's only reached that threshold twice in his career (I'll count the 99 points in 18-19).

If you look at the last 4 seasons (two good years: 18/19, 21/22; two okay years: 19/20, 20/21) he averages 90 points per 82 games.

He's likely worth closer to $9-$10M but you need to pay the UFA premium to keep him.

But I think it's pretty easy to say that the contract might not look that great as soon as 3-4 seasons from now.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There are often bargains to be had when players find themselves without a contract for a few days after UFA. They start worrying that they will end up in Europe.

Both of them had excellent seasons. They'll likely both get multiple offers.

[manwiches]

Originally Posted by Ford Prefect

I feel like the guy in an electric chair, waiting for the phone to ring bearing news of a stay of execution.

This about sums up my past week

Sent from my SM-N975W using Tapatalk

[cral12]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1546865321071370240

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's tough to say.

He was last year for sure. But he wasn't in the prior two seasons.

To be worth $11M he really needs to be a consistent 100 point player, and really he's only reached that threshold twice in his career.

If you look at the last 4 seasons (two good years: 18/19, 21/22; two okay years: 19/20, 20/21) he averages 90 points per 82 games.

He's likely worth closer to $9-$10M but you need to pay the UFA premium to keep him.

But I think it's pretty easy to say that the contract might not look that great as soon as 3-4 seasons from now.

Why, exactly is it easy to say a 10M Gaudreau contact would look bad as soon as 3 years from now?
I don't think the vast majority of people would think that.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Ford Prefect

I feel like the guy in an electric chair, waiting for the phone to ring bearing news of a stay of execution.

We can turn this into a movie and call it the Red Mile.

[Heavy Jack]

Johnny is an exciting player full stop, even if he doesn’t hit 115 pts again he will no doubt be a large part of which ever offence he ends up joining for the next 7 to 8 years. He’s an elite player who for right now has placed himself in the very top players of the league conversation. Even if he fell back down to earth he’s still a player that is as good as most teams marquee talent and will be worth the price of admission most nights for most fans.

[Sec214]

rip

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

you let him walk and you have an even better chance of never winning anything.

Can't believe some of you would let one of the top 5 players in the league walk for nothing, over a million bucks per year.
There are some players it's worth it to the team to have a slight overpay for, and I think Gaudreau is one of them.

Tell me how you could spend the 11M and have a team just as good and just as entertaining to watch. You probably can't do it.

How about you tell me how spending 11M on Gaudreau helps the Flames win the cup in the next 5 years? The 8th year is to help teams lower the cap hit.

Bottom line is if he doesn't sign at the rumoured current offer (10M+ for 8 years), then his heart is in the east.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

We can turn this into a movie and call it the Red Mile.

I'm tired, boss.

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I've been assured that this is simply impossible.

If he does sign, I think a lot of the "a million is nothing" people will be singing a different tune within 1.5 years. Not necessarily because Johnny will be bad, but there is nothing to suggest this past year was sustainable.

They have to make a decision today, with the best available information (past performance, what the team looks like without him, and asset management). Sure, maybe it won’t work out. But hindsight is for cowards and people that have never head to make hard decisions. That’s why Tre gets the big bucks.

[Ford Prefect]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

We can turn this into a movie and call it the Red Mile.

Or the Red Dial.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Ya, if this is all just a negotiation by Johnny's agent he is not doing a great thing for the team building.

Gaudreau's agent works for Johnny only so he doesn't care about other players not represented by him or the Flames. That said both defensemen were a product of Darryl's system so if another team wants to swoop in on either they can have at it. Flames will be able to fill those spots. I feel the Flames will be able to get something done with Gudbranson is he wants to remain a Flame.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

This was also his performance in a contract year. Will he be this good again? Who knows? It was a standout year for him. Not as dramatic as Kadri's outlier year, but a substantial outlier nonetheless. He could be back below a PPG and have a negative +/- again next year, and be that way for the next 8 years while getting paid $11M and having a weaker roster around him because his contract is sucking up the cap money.

This is why this is an unusual and tough negotiation. He's put up wildly disparate numbers in the last 4 years, 2 great and 2 mediocre. And, yes, there are plenty of reasons for the poor years, but the greatest players put up numbers consistently no matter what. Frankly, a lot of commentators and fans outside of Calgary are surprised at the numbers being thrown around and all thought the rumor of 9.5 was a huge offer to begin with.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by cral12

https://twitter.com/user/status/1546865321071370240

They've drafted 2: Adam Fox.

[dino7c]

11M in 3 or 4 years will also be less of the cap, I'm not sure it will age as poorly as some think.

McDrai will be making 15M+ by then

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It's tough to say.

He was last year for sure. But he wasn't in the prior two seasons.

To be worth $11M he really needs to be a consistent 100 point player, and really he's only reached that threshold twice in his career (I'll count the 99 points in 18-19).

If you look at the last 4 seasons (two good years: 18/19, 21/22; two okay years: 19/20, 20/21) he averages 90 points per 82 games.

He's likely worth closer to $9-$10M but you need to pay the UFA premium to keep him.

But I think it's pretty easy to say that the contract might not look that great as soon as 3-4 seasons from now.

You're definitely paying the UFA premium. Last off season was the time to avoid that, but then we might not have received contract year Gaudreau.

It's an overpay, but you have to hope you start seeing some major salary cap escalation.

[Ferarri]

Things aren’t looking very promising right now. Just pay him 11 and call it a day (unless the family connection is too important and he wants to move back to the east coast.) Flames need to step up their game. Let’s be realistic, Calgary is not a desirable location and the only advantage they have at the moment is money.