Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[dissentowner]

People talk like if Gaudreau leaves we should instantly rebuild. I disagree, this is still a really good team without Gaudreau. Not that it will happen.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I just think that this is a totally unrealistic perspective of the situation that doesn't factor into consideration several significant contributing factors. Presumably, there was an option heading into last summer to trade Gaudreau before his trade protection kicked in, but this assumes 1) that this is something either side wanted, and 2) that there were teams willing to move pieces of value to acquire him. How did discussions between Gaudreau and the Flames go last summer? What were his plans long term? Did he have any interest at all in moving on, and where to? Did he express any level of commitment to the Flames? Coming off of two(!) down-seasons, what did the framework of an extension look like? How much were the Flames willing to offer, and what was he willing to accept? Did his own value prompt him to delay signing until after this year? What did the trade market look like? Coming off of a couple poor seasons, were there many teams interested in the diminutive winger with middling playoff success? Were other teams less interested in acquiring Gaudreau as a result?

We don't know the answer to any of these questions, and without a clearer picture of what the market looked like from the inside, then we simply cannot know whether there were any missed opportunities that the Flames will now pay for as a result. You can make guesses about who is to blame, but in the end these all remain just guesses until we get some kind of clarity about how negotiations have transpired over the past year.


I have said this several times before, but I continue to think that most NHL GMs are not given enough time to do their job properly. Some of the more recently successful managers are those who have been in their current position for a long time. Joe Sakic is going on nine years in Colorado. Doug Armstrong has been in charge in St. Louis for over fourteen. Julien Brisbois has been on the job for only four years, but that is effectively the same regime that has been in place since 2010 when Yzerman arrived in Tampa. I, for one, am happy that Flames ownership is not so reactionary, and that Treliving is being afforded the latitude and time to do his work. Yes, he has made mistakes—all GMs do. But on balance, he has built a team that continues to improve, has won two Division championships, and a couple of playoff rounds. I like the way he goes about his business, and it seems that the owners do as well—and not because they are only interested in the bottom line, but because at the heart of it they are fans who want to win.


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That’s fair and I agree but those teams you listed have won cups. I’m not sure the Flames will be better going into next season. It’s looking like they could be a team on the decline if they lose one or two of their best players. That hasn’t happened with the other teams. Blues have some good young players on their roster so their window is still open.

[GioforPM]

Well, Sakic won a cup, but until a couple weeks ago he hadn’t. It took 9 years. Treliving has been in place slightly less time.

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Well, Sakic won a cup, but until a couple weeks ago he hadn’t. It took 9 years. Treliving has been in place slightly less time.

True, and Colorado had to endure being near the bottom of the league for a while (dealing with an impatient fanbase in a big hockey market!), and faced the possibility of both MacKinnon and Landeskog leaving their team if they didn't turn things around.

There's a process to turning into a cup contender. It takes time.

[Mathgod]

It's coming down to the last couple of days...

[Buff]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Guaranteed.

There are some who just latch on to the most negative narrative, even if it contradicts their previous one.

This is why I hate our society.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Here is a time line of stuff for the next few days

https://twitter.com/user/status/1546176277262045184

So, if Seravelli's information is accurate, the Flames have to submit Tkachuk's qualifying offer by 5:00PM EST tomorrow. Tkachuk can then either take offer sheets on Tuesday or accept the qualifying offer and is then on his way to free agency this time next year.

Gaudreau must be signed to a new deal no later than Tuesday evening, or the only benefit the Flames have in their favor, the 8th contract year, is off the table and all teams are on equal footing.

Tuesday is going to be massive for this team and could alter the future of the organization in historic ways. Of course, that's just latching onto the most negative narrative, as if nothing has led us to this point, like the facts of the situation.

[agulati]

There is no rush in Tkachuk accepting his QO though. He can see what else is in the market starting Tuesday and potentially negotiate as well.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

People talk like if Gaudreau leaves we should instantly rebuild. I disagree, this is still a really good team without Gaudreau. Not that it will happen.

They will not rebuild but it’s no longer a good team without Johnny. Borderline playoff team if that.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

So, if Seravelli's information is accurate, the Flames have to submit Tkachuk's qualifying offer by 5:00PM EST tomorrow. Tkachuk can then either take offer sheets on Tuesday or accept the qualifying offer and is then on his way to free agency this time next year.

Gaudreau must be signed to a new deal no later than Tuesday evening, or the only benefit the Flames have in their favor, the 8th contract year, is off the table and all teams are on equal footing.

Tuesday is going to be massive for this team and could alter the future of the organization in historic ways. Of course, that's just latching onto the most negative narrative, as if nothing has led us to this point, like the facts of the situation.

Why would Tkachuk simply take his QO when he could likely win a bigger award if he takes the team to arbitration which would still give him a 1 year deal worth potentially more than the $9M QO after his 104pt season

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Don’t know why people are upset even to discuss fire Treliving if Johnny walks

Without Johnny, it’s basically the end of the core and rebuild. Do you really want to go through a rebuild width the same GM that had no playoffs success?

People aren't upset. But the decision is more nuanced than you think it is.
And yes I'm fine with him still being GM.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

They will not rebuild but it’s no longer a good team without Johnny. Borderline playoff team if that.

Maybe, but I doubt it. I think the team will still continue to be a Division playoff team even without Gaudreau. The Flames will still be well coached, will continue to have great goaltending, and will still have lots of high-performing young players on value-rich contracts.

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[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Why would Tkachuk simply take his QO when he could likely win a bigger award if he takes the team to arbitration which would still give him a 1 year deal worth potentially more than the $9M QO after his 104pt season

Could the arbitrator award a 2 year deal? Because that could actually buy the Flames some time.

[Hey Connor, It's Mess]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

People talk like if Gaudreau leaves we should instantly rebuild. I disagree, this is still a really good team without Gaudreau. Not that it will happen.

It's looking quite possible it will happen and we would definitely be a significantly worse team without him. He drives our entire offense. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Why would Tkachuk simply take his QO when he could likely win a bigger award if he takes the team to arbitration which would still give him a 1 year deal worth potentially more than the $9M QO after his 104pt season

Because there is risk going to arbitration? An arbiter is not just going to look at this past season, they're going to look at his whole career and try to figure out what he's worth. Is there a guarantee they are they going to land on a $9M+ salary for Tkachuk? No. He can take the $9M and be done with the whole process and be an UFA at the end of next season. Doesn't have to air dirty laundry and can get what he wants with a handsome salary to boot. Pretty simple.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

So, if Seravelli's information is accurate, the Flames have to submit Tkachuk's qualifying offer by 5:00PM EST tomorrow. Tkachuk can then either take offer sheets on Tuesday or accept the qualifying offer and is then on his way to free agency this time next year.

Well, no. Tkachuk and the Flames can also continue to negotiate a new contract. Why would he just settle for his QO? Even if he had every intention of becoming a UFA next year, it seems incredibly unlikely to me that he would just settle on his QO right away.

As usual, this is just you running around and screaming at everyone that your hair is on fire.

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[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Could the arbitrator award a 2 year deal? Because that could actually buy the Flames some time.

I believe it is 1 year because that is how long it would take until he hit free agency

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

It's looking quite possible it will happen and we would definitely be a significantly worse team without him. He drives our entire offense. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

I don't think it's quite possible at all. I am still extremely confident he is signing. I said all along it would be sometime in the 48hrs leading up to free agency. That is how his agent works. If he wants to stay there is no benefit to himself to not try and drag out the best numbers he can get.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hey Connor, It's Mess

It's looking quite possible it will happen and we would definitely be a significantly worse team without him. He drives our entire offense. You're kidding yourself if you think otherwise.

I think there is no doubt that the offense will need to function differently in Gaudreau's absence, but there is little reason to expect that the #6 best offense is suddenly going to drop off a cliff. The Flames most likely won't continue with a +85 goal-differential, but they will still be extremely well coached, and very stingy defensively. The will still have great players up and down the lineup who can score. Even if they are only scoring at around league average, they will still ge good enough to win a Division playoff spot.

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[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Maybe, but I doubt it. I think the team will still continue to be a Division playoff team even without Gaudreau. The Flames will still be well coached, will continue to have great goaltending, and will still have lots of high-performing young players on value-rich contracts.

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Disagree, Gaudreau was in on 40% of this teams offense, he stirs the drink