Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread - Page 286 - Calgarypuck Forums - The Unofficial Calgary Flames Fan Community

Aarongavey · 07-06-2022, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Am I the only one who thinks a GM would be crazy to trade 2OA for 1-8 years of UFA value? Even if the value isn't far off, I think there is way too much risk that it blows up in the GMs face and they become the guy who traded Pronger/Hedman/Doughty/Malkin/Barkov level talent for a player who doesn't age well.

For reference, here are the 2OA picks since 1990 (with enough time to make a decent judgment) - wingers are bolded:

Spoiler!

It's been really rare to bust on 2OA's, and even then they've been salvaged into decent assets.

3 ELC years + 4 RFA years + ?? UFA years
vs.
?? UFA years of Tkachuk...

The number of forwards who ever had a season with more points than what Tkachuk has this year on that list - 2 (Heatley and Malkin)

Total number of seasons with more points than what Tkachuk has last year - 4 (3 for Malkin, 1 for Heatley).

Total number of players who had a season with the same number of points - 1 (Daniel Sedin, he got 104 points in his best season)

Tkachuk has already, at the age of 24, has a better individual statistical season than 86% of the forwards on that list. He has had the same or better than 90% of the forwards on that list. Tkachuk is worth a lot more than a 2nd overall pick.

NegativeSpace · 07-06-2022, 05:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Am I the only one who thinks a GM would be crazy to trade 2OA for 1-8 years of UFA value? Even if the value isn't far off, I think there is way too much risk that it blows up in the GMs face and they become the guy who traded Pronger/Hedman/Doughty/Malkin/Barkov level talent for a player who doesn't age well.

For reference, here are the 2OA picks since 1990 (with enough time to make a decent judgment) - wingers are bolded:

Spoiler!

It's been really rare to bust on 2OA's, and even then they've been salvaged into decent assets.

3 ELC years + 4 RFA years + ?? UFA years
vs.
?? UFA years of Tkachuk...

My Flames history bias towards disappointment showed up the minute you say it is rare to bust on 2OAs. I've been generally happy with the direction of the Flames and their drafting in the last few years. But somewhere in my mind it keeps saying that if there is an NHL franchise that can achieve a disappointing milestone of drafting a bust at 2OA, it could be Calgary.

Sec214 · 07-06-2022, 05:40 PM

The best player in this draft will not go first overall, isn’t even a NA Skater but people are buying the Shane Wright hype.

dammage79 · 07-06-2022, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by djsFlames

I'd like to know where people are getting the "hearts not in it" narrative pertaining to Tkachuk and Calgary.

Like with Johnny, what evidence do we have that Tkachuk wants out or is even considering it, besides reading between the lines in some off ice interviews last summer which were dismissed since by Matthew.

Some of the stories that people grapple on to here are as good as make believe and I don't get it. Just pessimistic/fearful thinking?

It's not "His hearts not in it" pertaining to the here and now. It's, "If he signs his 1 year QO intent on leaving next season, his heart likely won't be in it when it comes to the Flames"

Hell, anyone I've ever known who are going to change locales or jobs, always half ass it when one foot is out the door. Is that any different with the people you know?

I'm exploring one probable outcome out of likely hundreds of probable outcomes that will all become clear within the next week and a half.

In my Opinion, if Chucky only takes the 1 year QO, he's already left and there's no reason to keep him around so his trade value tanks. Maximize the return.

That's it.

Northendzone · 07-06-2022, 06:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sec214

The best player in this draft will not go first overall, isn’t even a NA Skater but people are buying the Shane Wright hype.

Feel like I have seen a few mock draft lists where Wright was not selected first- most notably from the mind of either Mackenzie or button

Vinny01 · 07-06-2022, 06:06 PM

Tkachuk would be wise to sign an 8 year deal here or elsewhere this offseason. He shouldn’t want to risk playing on a one year deal next season and have his numbers tank or risk injury. Johnny was allegedly looking to secure his future but the Flames couldn’t get a deal done with him so he bet on himself.

No Johnny here I doubt Chucky gets close to the production he had so he should be either doing a deal with Calgary or working with them to find a real willing to pay him on that 8 year deal. Jersey seems like a good match.

Sylvanfan · 07-06-2022, 06:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Every summer I go hang out with friends in the West Kootneys and we mtn bike our faces off.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

If you ride the Kootenay Lake Ferry...do it this year before they replace it with the new one. Former employer is building it, and they are as good at building boats as the Oilers are at building a sustainable winning hockey team. No good.

Vinny01 · 07-06-2022, 06:10 PM

I only caught a bit of Flames talk on my way home but Steinberg sounded the least optimistic he ever has about Johnny staying. He mentioned that he talked to 2 people he really trusts that are close to it and one thinks he is gone and the other thinks there is still a chance he signs. Also commented on the Tkachuk trade rumors and he thinks it is definitely something being discussed

memphusk · 07-06-2022, 06:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I only caught a bit of Flames talk on my way home but Steinberg sounded the least optimistic he ever has about Johnny staying. He mentioned that he talked to 2 people he really trusts that are close to it and one thinks he is gone and the other thinks there is still a chance he signs. Also commented on the Tkachuk trade rumors and he thinks it is definitely something being discussed

Sounds like media and radio drumming up hits on an absolute quiet draft.

Manhattanboy · 07-06-2022, 06:20 PM

Could be JG is also looking for the bright lights that only an east coast team can provide. He would be an instant star and celebrity. He could be the biggest free agent signing since….? Maybe the biggest in what 20 years?

Lanny_McDonald · 07-06-2022, 06:21 PM

Really trying to stay positive on this, but the way this is playing out just doesn't look good on Treliving. It is looking more and more like the team is going to be forced into a rebuild and have nothing to show for its best player, and then deal another top player for a diminished return. It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see this possible outcome, but for some reason the guy in charge just couldn't figure it out. He had all the leverage, and now he has none. Really poorly played on Treliving's part.

Manhattanboy · 07-06-2022, 06:23 PM

Wonder how this will play out for season tickets. Some of my friends are waiting to see what happens.

dammage79 · 07-06-2022, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Really trying to stay positive on this, but the way this is playing out just doesn't look good on Treliving. It is looking more and more like the team is going to be forced into a rebuild and have nothing to show for its best player, and then deal another top player for a diminished return. It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see this possible outcome, but for some reason the guy in charge just couldn't figure it out. He had all the leverage, and now he has none. Really poorly played on Treliving's part.

It doesn't look good right now no. But those things haven't happened yet either. But if they do happen. I think they have to tear it all down to the studs. I.e everything underneath ownership likely needs to be punted.

Icon · 07-06-2022, 06:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Really trying to stay positive on this, but the way this is playing out just doesn't look good on Treliving. It is looking more and more like the team is going to be forced into a rebuild and have nothing to show for its best player, and then deal another top player for a diminished return. It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see this possible outcome, but for some reason the guy in charge just couldn't figure it out. He had all the leverage, and now he has none. Really poorly played on Treliving's part.

I completely agree with all of this. Problem is the results from the last few seasons make it difficult to feel the team's not on the cusp, to figure out a way to keep it together for another shot. Had we missed the playoffs I think going the other route would be a no brainer, and we would have started shipping guys out at the deadline including Gaudreau and maybe Tkachuk, for bigger returns

The Cobra · 07-06-2022, 06:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Tkachuk would be wise to sign an 8 year deal here or elsewhere this offseason. He shouldn’t want to risk playing on a one year deal next season and have his numbers tank or risk injury. Johnny was allegedly looking to secure his future but the Flames couldn’t get a deal done with him so he bet on himself.

No Johnny here I doubt Chucky gets close to the production he had so he should be either doing a deal with Calgary or working with them to find a real willing to pay him on that 8 year deal. Jersey seems like a good match.

I don’t disagree with you, but other posters suggest we should get a ton of value in a trade since he had so many points.

We can’t have it both ways.

Moneyhands23 · 07-06-2022, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

Wonder how this will play out for season tickets. Some of my friends are waiting to see what happens.

Ya, they won't have a problem selling them unless they have a bunch of bad seasons.

TOfan · 07-06-2022, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by memphusk

Sounds like media and radio drumming up hits on an absolute quiet draft.

Stienberg doesn’t strike me as someone who is sensationalist. He usually has a finger on the pulse of things.

memphusk · 07-06-2022, 06:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Really trying to stay positive on this, but the way this is playing out just doesn't look good on Treliving. It is looking more and more like the team is going to be forced into a rebuild and have nothing to show for its best player, and then deal another top player for a diminished return. It didn't take a rocket surgeon to see this possible outcome, but for some reason the guy in charge just couldn't figure it out. He had all the leverage, and now he has none. Really poorly played on Treliving's part.

How is it really Treliving's fault? If he wants to leave, he wants to leave. They did a hell of a job getting him here and they should be thanked for that. Should he throw 14 million at him? I honestly believe Gaudreau wasn't signing until he was a free agent, be it with Calgary or whoever.

Icon · 07-06-2022, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by memphusk

Sounds like media and radio drumming up hits on an absolute quiet draft.

I could see it being quiet for the Flames if they don't know Gaudreau's future yet... But I think we see some trades only because the nature of the prospects makes it a bit of a crapshoot... Will depend how much clout the scouting staff has with the GMs

memphusk · 07-06-2022, 06:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TOfan

Stienberg doesn’t strike me as someone who is sensationalist. He usually has a finger on the pulse of things.

Ok so he spoke to a guy that said he's staying, and a guy that said he's leaving. Sounds about right.