It’s one of the two or three things everyone is talking about here in Montréal. Brad Treliving did not speak to media following general manager meetings on Wednesday afternoon because, well, what is there to say? The Flames have made a competitive and lucrative offer, there’s room to negotiate, and the cards are held almost entirely by Gaudreau’s camp.
Here’s my understanding of the situation after doing as much digging as I can on the ground: Gaudreau is truly undecided. Calgary’s offer remains in play and I don’t believe Gaudreau will be closing the door on a return until a final decision is made. As stated last week, Philadelphia and New Jersey are two teams I’m confident are in the mix to land Gaudreau if he goes to free agency. I’m even more confident in that now, and there are undoubtedly others.
The waiting game continues.
__________________
The Quest stands upon the edge of a knife. Stray but a little, and it will fail, to the ruin of all. Yet hope remains while the Company is true. Go Flames Go!
I think Tkachuk is never going to sign long term. He may sign short term big money deals and keep the Flames on that line for a few years, then ultimately bolt. I'm happy moving him for assets plus good (if not as good) players and and using more cap space for Johnny. Of the two, I feel like Johnny is the more valuable, the harder to replace in the scheme of things and more team committed. I'm not sure I would have said so last year but I do now. I guess the question is as the lesser of two evils who would a guy like, say Mangiapane, or a Patrick Laine, or Burakovsky, or Trochek more easily replace on the top line, knowing that it's a downgrade in aby event.
I'm betting if it's coming down to a choice between the two, Treliving is also asking Sutter what he prefers.
It's Gaudreau easily. Him and Sutter have always spoke glowingly about each other.
Even though he put up career highs under him, I've always been curious about how Tkachuk really feels about Sutter and the idea of playing for him for at least a few more years.
Only reason I ask this is because I watch all the interviews and this season, and it seemed like any time the media asked Tkachuk about Sutter, Tkachuk avoided speaking about him directly and his effect on the team's turnaround this past season (he would always deflect by saying not much really changed from the previous season). It could be nothing and maybe I'm reading into things too much, but I suspect he does not like Sutter and it makes me wonder if there are still hard feelings after Sutter cut his ice time during the Covid season.
If the Flames do move him, I could see 2OA+, Kyrou+ or Stutzle+ being possibilities. It's a copycat league and teams will be looking to get faster after the Avs' success.
Gonna lots of rumors twisting and turning in on themselves from here on out.
My Best Guess? No idea. Although I feel like Chucky may be out the door either way at this point. Starting to feel that way anyways. If Johnny re-signs, they really can't afford him, if Johnny Walks, he might as well walk too. No point in wasting everyone's time about it. Because there's absolutely no way you let him sign the 1 year QO and let him walk. He has to be dealt either now or TD. But what's the point of keeping him to Trade deadline if he knows he wants out, his hearts not going to be in it. Lessening the tire turn value in the process. Can't be a gamble anybody is willing to take. You gambled on Johnny and if he walks, you lost that one.
__________________ "Everybody's so desperate to look smart that nobody is having fun anymore" -Jackie Redmond
It seems like New Jersey signs UFAs a lot but never really do anything. They signed Dougie Hamilton last year and Cammallari a few years ago as well as some others.
I think Johnny’s missing a good opportunity to win if he leaves the Flames.
Am I the only one who thinks a GM would be crazy to trade 2OA for 1-8 years of UFA value? Even if the value isn't far off, I think there is way too much risk that it blows up in the GMs face and they become the guy who traded Pronger/Hedman/Doughty/Malkin/Barkov level talent for a player who doesn't age well.
For reference, here are the 2OA picks since 1990 (with enough time to make a decent judgment) - wingers are bolded:
Spoiler!
Tier 1
Evgeni Malkin
Aleksander Barkov
Jack Eichel
Chris Pronger
Victor Hedman
Drew Doughty
Tier 2
Eric Staal
Jason Spezza
Tyler Seguin
Alexei Yashin Daniel Sedin
Patrick Marleau
Dany Heatley Svechnikov*
Patrik Laine* Gabriel Landeskog**
Redden
Tier 3
Jordan Staal
David Legwand
Petr Nedved
Sam Reinhart
James Van Riemsdyk
Bobby Ryan
Oleg Tverdovsky
Ryan Murray
Kari Lehtonen
Disappointments
Nolan Patrick
Pat Falloon
Andrei Zyuzin
*These guys might belong in tier 2.5...
I'd argue Tkachuk ranks between those 2.5 guys and Heatley**. Among forwards that's 10 who are better, 12 who are worse. Similar position among all 2OA picks.
**In anticipation of recency bias: age 24-28 Heatley scored 50 50 41 39 39 and was ppg in 4 of those 5 years.
It's been really rare to bust on 2OA's, and even then they've been salvaged into decent assets.
3 ELC years + 4 RFA years + ?? UFA years
vs.
?? UFA years of Tkachuk...
The Following User Says Thank You to powderjunkie For This Useful Post:
Winning is fun. I don't watch because I like to be dazzled by this or that player. Of course, we all enjoy the display of skill. But get real: if the team continues to win like they did last year, no one will be complaining about a shortage of pretty scoring plays. Winning cures everything.
Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk
How do you not watch the sport to see the best players playing at their best and doing amazing things? It's all for entertainment. All else being equal, between a winning team with a creative and dazzling superstar or a winning team without, you wouldn't prefer to watch the dazzling creative play?
Most of the memorable moments from Flames games in recent years for me have been plays off the blade of Johnny's stick. Take those away and I'd certainly be less interested in watching them play.
__________________
"If stupidity got us into this mess, then why can't it get us out?"
Gonna lots of rumors twisting and turning in on themselves from here on out.
My Best Guess? No idea. Although I feel like Chucky may be out the door either way at this point. Starting to feel that way anyways. If Johnny re-signs, they really can't afford him, if Johnny Walks, he might as well walk too. No point in wasting everyone's time about it. Because there's absolutely no way you let him sign the 1 year QO and let him walk. He has to be dealt either now or TD. But what's the point of keeping him to Trade deadline if he knows he wants out, his hearts not going to be in it. Lessening the tire turn value in the process. Can't be a gamble anybody is willing to take. You gambled on Johnny and if he walks, you lost that one.
I'd like to know where people are getting the "hearts not in it" narrative pertaining to Tkachuk and Calgary.
Like with Johnny, what evidence do we have that Tkachuk wants out or is even considering it, besides reading between the lines in some off ice interviews last summer which were dismissed since by Matthew.
Some of the stories that people grapple on to here are as good as make believe and I don't get it. Just pessimistic/fearful thinking?
How do you not watch the sport to see the best players playing at their best and doing amazing things? It's all for entertainment. All else being equal, between a winning team with a creative and dazzling superstar or a winning team without, you wouldn't prefer to watch the dazzling creative play?
Most of the memorable moments from Flames games in recent years for me have been plays off the blade of Johnny's stick. Take those away and I'd certainly be less interested in watching them play.
I watch hockey to be entertained by the best players
I watch the Flames to hope they win
Kind of crazy how much the future of the Flames could change in the next week. Could end up with a signed Gaudreau and Tkachuk to long term deals, or no Gaudreau and a traded Tkachuk.
Got a feeling that this is going to go longer than July 13th for a resolution to Johnny. Think he’s going to listen to other teams on July 13th and make his decision from there. Flames will be in the mix till the very end. What he chooses I have no idea. I also don’t think a decision will come about Tkachuk until we know what Johnny does. Basically I’m not expecting much during draft weekend other than trading down to gather more picks.
I would be way happier with a 10 million dollar 24 year old Matthew Tkachuk than I would be with a 9 million dollar 28 year old Filip Forsberg. I would think 99% of fans would be too.
Points don’t even have anything to do with it. Tkachuk boasts elite metrics in all 3 zones. He’s a rare and valuable player.
One player is just entering their prime (and is already better) while the other player is on the verge of exiting their prime.
It’s laughable that you think we can just grab a player from free agency on a whim that is anywhere near the caliber of player Tkachuk is.
The only way the Flames should consider moving him is if he let’s them know he’s accepting his QO and not willing to negotiate a long term deal.
You've got to look at it as:
1. Tkachuk with huge and/or non-long-term contract; or
2. All the assets we'd get from a Tkachuk trade, plus a potentially comparable player on a better contract.
Listen, I'm attached to this team too, and I would love it if we could just try again with almost the same roster (plus some internal improvement). The reality is that may not be feasible. Tkachuk may try to either bend the team over a barrel or just straight up refuse to sign long-term.
All I'm saying is that there are other options for the Flames, and that it's much easier to replace, or even potentially improve upon, what Tkachuk brings.
Which you can also attribute to playing an extremely locked down series against Dallas where scoring was hard to come by for everyone.
He was fine in the Edmonton series and is likely going to fall in between last season and his typical seasons previously, which point to him in the 80-85 point range. It's easy to forget he has had some very productive seasons without Gaudreau and without dedicated #1 PP unit time.
He had 4 points in 5 games in Edmonton, which is a lesser pace than against Dallas.
I think Tkachuk is a great offensive player, just not a 100 point player.
