Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you feel is the hold up then?

Johnny being aware that the best deal for him from the flames will likely come at the 11th hour so there’s no incentive for him to sign before then.

[Swayze11]

Yea Kadri probably has Calgary as his top destination.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by bax

Tkachuk can be easily replaced? What are you talking about? He is getting so underrated here it isn’t even funny.

Come out ahead by paying Forsberg? (Provided he would even be willing to sign here over 31 other teams).

Forsberg has been over a point per game exactly 1 time in his career and is turning 28 this summer. Tkachuk is 4 years younger and just outscored him by 20 points for crying out loud. The age difference alone is enough to choose Tkachuk, but even then he’s already a way better player - at both ends of the ice. Lots of other options? Who are they?

Tkachuk also boasts elite defensive metrics and has the intangibles of being able to hit, fight, and get under the opposition’s skin. Not to mention his elite hands in tight around the net.

Dom (advanced stats guy from the Athletic) just had an article on the best RFA players this year and this is what he had to say about Tkachuk:

“At 4.4 projected wins, Tkachuk is expected to be one of the 10 most valuable players in hockey next season after a massive breakout year where he scored 104 points and dominated play at 5 on 5 at both ends of the ice. The fact he’s also a rugged power forward only adds to the intrigue. He’s a very special player, a unicorn in this league that features a rare combination of brawn and skill. There’s no one like Tkachuk and he’s a cornerstone piece that teams can build around.”

He also wrote that he would be willing to make Tkachuk the 5th highest paid player in the league and he would still be worth it. Called him the most valuable asset on the market this summer.

You can make the argument that you don’t think he is THAT valuable - fine, but to say he is easily replaceable is just fantasy.

Firstly, I said somewhat easily replaceable....and yes, we all know what Tkachuk brings.

You can disagree with me, but it's also obvious that Tkachuk's numbers were inflated this year due to playing with Gaudreau. Tkachuk himself has only hit PPG once, and that was this year. And yes, his line was dominant 5v5, but how much of that was Tkachuk and how much was his linemates.

As for his "brawn" and "power forward" abilities....that has yet to consistently show up in the playoffs. Tkachuk IMO is far more of a pest, than a true physical player. That has value too, but let's not pretend he is Iginla, driving through the defence.

Tkachuk is also the type of guy who is going to squeeze a major contract out of whoever he signs with. There are UFA players almost every year that you can acquire if you are willing to spend big bucks (which Tkachuk is almost certain to demand). And it's this likely big demand that might force the team to make a change. Tkachuk may be holding out for $10 million, so that means making cuts in the lineup elsewhere.

There are most certainly ways to trade Tkachuk and still come out ahead. Firstly, you can hopefully get a boatload of assets. Secondly, as I stated before, Gaudreau can play with a lot of guys and he's been shown to consistently give his linemates 20+ bumps in their point production.

[SuperMatt18]

Yeah prior to this season Kadri's production was very similar to Backlund.

Good player and plays a role, but I wouldn't give him $8M plus.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah prior to this season Kadri's production was very similar to Backlund.

Good player and plays a role, but I wouldn't give him $8M plus.

I think most teams realize this and he may have a rude awakening. I think his POs gave him a bit of an exaggerated self-worth. He should remember he was traded for Barrie (and also for Brodie).

[FlamesAddiction]

I could see taking a short-term risk on Kadri at an elevated salary, but if he wants a long-term deal, that AAV needs to come down significantly.

Of all the UFAs on the market, he will probably receive the most diverse offers.

[Sylvanfan]

Kadri to me is a big time buyer beware. 26 points ahead of his previous career high at age 31. Last 2 seasons he paced at about 55 points per 82 games. Plus very seldom he plays 80 games. Teams have to be wary of paying for a first line guy who gives you second line production albeit very good in that role. It would be pretty similar to when the Flames extended Daymond Langkow after his first 3 year deal expired. He was less effective after signing that deal even in the two years before the injury pretty much finished him.

[tvp2003]

For me Tkachuk has been underwhelming in the playoffs. Injuries (self-inflicted or not) have contributed to that, but I also recall the completely checked out Tkachuk of 2020/21 and wonder who the heck was that guy...

[blankall]

I can't see any reason that Kadri would sign for either a small or short-term contract. This is likely his last chance to get paid, and he already has a cup. Whoever picks him up is likely doing so on a 6-7 year deal.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Johnny/his agent playing their hand as best they can?

There's no urgency for Calgary to bump the number until the clock runs down. And Johnny can bag better than 9.5 from Tre and co.

Also weighing all options and mulling things over with your pregnant wife. A 7-8 year commitment is something you want to take all the time you can to decide on.

Maybe, but do we really believe the Flames are playing hardball? Brad is sticking at 9.5 and not willing to move? If they pay 8 x 10 million, some other team would need to pay 11.5 x 7 to match. I'm sure Johnny realizes he's not going to get significantly higher than those figures. I just find it unlikely they are trying to squeeze every last penny out of the Flames.

So ya I think where him and his wife want to start their family is likely the biggest factor and if they felt Calgary was the place they wanted to do it then the deal would likely be done already. It feels like they want to see what the options out there are and then they can weigh all of those options.

[Canada 02]

Two summers in a row, the talking heads on St Louis Blues radio have fantasized about trading for Tkachuk. If they had their way, some combination of Kyrou, Perunavich, Tarasenko, Neighbours, picks would be worth getting Tkachuk

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Maybe, but do we really believe the Flames are playing hardball? Brad is sticking at 9.5 and not willing to move? If they pay 8 x 10 million, some other team would need to pay 11.5 x 7 to match. I'm sure Johnny realizes he's not going to get significantly higher than those figures. I just find it unlikely they are trying to squeeze every last penny out of the Flames.

So ya I think where him and his wife want to start their family is likely the biggest factor and if they felt Calgary was the place they wanted to do it then the deal would likely be done already. It feels like they want to see what the options out there are and then they can weigh all of those options.

You have to respect it if he wants to leave. Canada was a mess during lockdown. I'm just waiting on the kids to graduate to boogie also.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

Two summers in a row, the talking heads on St Louis Blues radio have fantasized about trading for Tkachuk. If they had their way, some combination of Kyrou, Perunavich, Tarasenko, Neighbours, picks would be worth getting Tkachuk

if Chucky doesn't want to re-sign long-term, I'll happily take Kyrou, Perunovich and some picks, to be honest.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you feel is the hold up then?

Look up Lewis Gross's past with his players and waiting until the last minute to try and squeeze every dollar. That is the hold up.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

Two summers in a row, the talking heads on St Louis Blues radio have fantasized about trading for Tkachuk. If they had their way, some combination of Kyrou, Perunavich, Tarasenko, Neighbours, picks would be worth getting Tkachuk

I'd happily let them overpay with good young talent.

I like Tkachuk but he hasn't changed the narrative around his playoff performance. If he means that much to St. Loo, bring on a young package to set us up for a retool around Johnny.

I'd love to get Kyrou here.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by devo22

if Chucky doesn't want to re-sign long-term, I'll happily take Kyrou, Perunovich and some picks, to be honest.

Me too. Kyrou easily gets 40 goals across from Gaudreau imo.

[Monahammer]

Kyrou + is potentially the most appealing package for Tkachuk IMO. I don't think the blues will offer Kyrou though.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Kyrou + is potentially the most appealing package for Tkachuk IMO. I don't think the blues will offer Kyrou though.

I would rather pursue the 2nd overall pick + than a 25 year old who is looking for $6M+ sooner than later

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I would rather pursue the 2nd overall pick + than a 25 year old who is looking for $6M+ sooner than later

What point would there be to getting the 2nd overall pick? It likely takes a few years before that pick is anywhere near as impactful as Tkachuk, if it even happens. By that time Johnny may have slowed down a step, among other players. IMO if we re-sign Johnny we have about 3-4 years of a window before we start thinking about a tear down.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I agree that Johnny's game breaking ability in the playoffs hasn't looked like the players you listed, but he did score the series-winning game 7 OT goal and was the team's top scorer. He was the talent that closed the game and the series in the crucial moment. The Flames don't have a lot of other game breakers waiting in the wings either, including Tkachuk who would have been the most disappointing player if not for Markstrom's second round.

Tkachuk scored the goal to tie game 7 when they were down 2-1. Albeit on a nice feed by Johnny.

Tkachuk makes a great read to get the puck and 2 nifty passes to keep possession leading to Gaudreau's OT winner (the actual play was him setting up Lindholm and then potting the rebound).

I agree Chucky generally wasn't good though. As has been the case for both he and Gaudreau most of the time in the POs. Caveat Emptor and all that.

Originally Posted by jayswin

Columbus is our beacon of hope for where we could be if we lose Gaudreau? Yikes, lol.

If nothing else our fan base is better than most in the league at accepting and justifying mediocrity. We're the dream fans for ownership groups that don't have the desire to tear down and acquire top end picks, instead aiming for playoffs in any manner each season

We're freaking out about losing 1 player when it's inevitable that we have to lose someone important.

CBJ lost 2/3 most important players and some other key pieces. Then made it 3/3 of those players a year later. Leading up to all of that they were just a mediocre+ team, though arguably more consistently competitive than CGY (despite a tougher division & conference): of their 4 straight playoff eliminations 3 times it was the SCC that beat them; the other time it was the Bruins who went to the finals.

They lost way more and didn't fall off that far.

I'm actually pretty pessimistic on this team's future regardless of which wingers stay...I just don't see a massive difference between this team with or without Gaudreau when it comes to the playoffs.