Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Islanders were a team that got better after their best player walked for nothing so the same will happen for the Flames?

I think we saw a similar bump the Isles did when we lost Gio but the correlation is the coaching change. Islanders got Trotz the same summer they lost JT. Sutter had his first full season with the Flames after Gio left. The Flames are not all of a sudden going to get a coach bump like the Islanders got because they already got that last year with the full training camp with Big D.

Ultimately if Johnny leaves and is not replaced the Flames go from a team that looked to be a contender to likely a bubble team. Losing Johnny is a critical blow to winning a cup and could put this team in the spot the 07-12 Flames were in which is battling for the final playoff spots.

The argument is just that it isn't necessarily doom+gloom.

If the other 18 skaters+goalie are going to be mediocre- without Johnny, I don't see how anyone can expect them to be more than mediocre+ with him...

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

I imagine they tried and couldn't compete financially and it's doubtful he wanted to play in Calgary anyway. Cassells wasn't exactly thrilled to be traded to the Flames as it was always known he was going to leave the minute he was a UFA. Those were tough times for the Flames.

I remember being excited to get Cassels only to see him leave for the Canucks of all teams. Those were dark years.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

My point is that islander fans thought all the same things
And they ended up being fine
What is key is what happens next

Imagine if they had got something for Tavares. Might be talking about the Islanders' back-to-back Cups instead of Tampa's.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

The argument is just that it isn't necessarily doom+gloom.

If the other 18 skaters+goalie are going to be mediocre- without Johnny, I don't see how anyone can expect them to be more than mediocre+ with him...

The team won’t be a bottom feeder if Johnny walks but I have a hard time seeing them being anything other than incredibly average with Johnny gone. The 2 seasons Johnny finished 4th in Hart voting this team had 50 win seasons and won the division. When he is not playing at that level they have found themselves on the bubble

The Islanders lost Tavares and added a hall of fame coach coming off a cup win. The Flames likely will not make many major changes even if Johnny leaves because they are tied down by the cap so they likely try and get Chucky and Mangiapane signed and fill out the roster.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I think the team will be worse in the regular season, but has a chance to be better in the playoffs - with more cap for better depth, and I just don't think Johnny's gamebreaking ability happens enough in the post-season compared to guys like Kucherov/MacKinnon/McDavid/Draisaitl.

I agree that Johnny's game breaking ability in the playoffs hasn't looked like the players you listed, but he did score the series-winning game 7 OT goal and was the team's top scorer. He was the talent that closed the game and the series in the crucial moment. The Flames don't have a lot of other game breakers waiting in the wings either, including Tkachuk who would have been the most disappointing player if not for Markstrom's second round.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Tavares hasn’t moved the needle for the Leafs so I think it comes down to the fact that he’s not a guy that elevates players around him. Gaudreau on the other hand clearly opens up things for his line mates. Losing him will likely impact the Flames far greater especially in the transition game.

Right, Tavares signed with the Leafs and since then we've learned he's not as big of a difference maker as everyone thought he was on the Islanders. I think that's what people are trying to say.

I think Gaudreau is an exceptional talent, but it's no surprise his two best seasons have come playing heavy minutes with the criminally underrated Elias Lindholm (a player who kept up with him offensively in 19-20 and 20-21). Gaudreau finding another level offensively is a big part player, but an important part line mates.

Losing Gaudreau for nothing is a negative, there's no way to spin it otherwise. I won't be happy to lose him if we do, but I will be excited to see if the Flames can overcome it and if someone else breaks out.

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Islanders were a team that got better after their best player walked for nothing so the same will happen for the Flames?

No, but it could happen.

Ultimately, we don't know how it will play out IF he goes. There's a whole offseason ahead of us and then actual games to play after that. Good coaches apparently make all the difference, according to Saqe, and we have one, plus plenty of other good pieces on the roster.

We'll see what happens.

[Erick Estrada]

I think Gaudreau was fine in the playoffs. Lindholm and Tkachuk didn’t elevate their games like Kane and Hyman. No way McDavid and Draisaitl have the playoffs they did without line mates also elevating their games. Without Gaudreau, the biggest playoff underachievers are still on the roster and that includes Mangiapane and Toffoli who were quiet in the playoffs.

[Strange Brew]

The Islanders comparison doesn't do much for me. Different team, different circumstances and their improvement was due to some factors that don't seem to apply to the Flames.

As much as I enjoy watching Gaudreau play for the Flames, this situation isn't causing me that much angst. Maybe because I'm not that convinced this team is on a championship trajectory with or without him.

[GioforPM]

If Gaudreau goes, the team has to adapt. No one player should be the key to team success. If the offence revolves around Gaudreau, then that's not necessarily a good thing. If Lindy takes a bigger role, if the money not spent on Gaudreau can be used to pay a decent secondary centre threat (via trade - there's no good UFA ones out there except Kadri and I don't like his ask) and maybe some defensive additions then maybe a different looking team playing Sutter hockey can succeed.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Agreed...but at the time and especially the following summer when Regehr broke both legs...that was hugely underwhelming. Over time, that transaction probably turned into one of the better ones in Flames history. Could be a valid lesson for now.


I go to my original stance on this. Lewis Gross is known for squeezing the team for maximum leverage (see Nylander and Gaudreau last contract). Unless Gaudreau intervenes, this deal gets done the day before free agency because that's the maximum day for leverage before the 8th year gets done. I am sure the flames imposed a draft deadline so that they could "explore options"...but everyone knows it's a fake sense of urgency. You are not trading Gaudreau for a 3rd so that someone else can try to sign him...

He also held out Krug in Boston as an RFA. Krug did walk as a UFA from Boston last year but that was because Boston decided to cut him loose for financial reasons.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If Gaudreau goes, the team has to adapt. No one player should be the key to team success. If the offence revolves around Gaudreau, then that's not necessarily a good thing. If Lindy takes a bigger role, if the money not spent on Gaudreau can be used to pay a decent secondary centre threat (via trade - there's no good UFA ones out there except Kadri and I don't like his ask) and maybe some defensive additions then maybe a different looking team playing Sutter hockey can succeed.

The offense was revolving around Johnny

There is a big gap between him and the next guy

Big shoe to fill

[Erick Estrada]

Remember the agent works for the player not the other way around. Gaudreau will decide how close things get to the wire. I sense he’s not going to hold the Flames hostage if he plans on testing the waters.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I'd be curious to see a list of the biggest impact players to leave the Flames free agents.

Cammaleri, Cassels (was disappointing as a Flame, but rebounded after leaving), Kiprusoff (retired), St. Louis (before he broke out).

I am sure I am forgetting some, but I can't recall many. Actually, did Kipper leave a year on the table? I don't recall.

Macinnis essentially walked as an RFA by signing an offer sheet. The Flames did get compensation, but not by choice.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Remember the agent works for the player not the other way around. Gaudreau will decide how close things get to the wire. I sense he’s not going to hold the Flames hostage if he plans on testing the waters.

He is pretty much holding them hostage now

[DJones]

If Gaudreau leaves, as long as they can resign Tkachuk you stay the course.

Gaudreau is great but he's not irreplacable at ~10m. Someone pushing Backlund down to 3C would have likely helped us out more in the playoffs.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Remember the agent works for the player not the other way around. Gaudreau will decide how close things get to the wire. I sense he’s not going to hold the Flames hostage if he plans on testing the waters.

Sure, they are are working for the player, but agents have a hugely underrated impact on player decisions. These are kids in their 20s with limited education. All the info is filtered through the agent. When you hear "the player and the team are talking" it's probably not actually the player. Actual discussions are usually just via the agent, and they hold down that role carefully - the last thing they often want is their client hearing directly from a GM, because that loses them control and influence. And you just have to look at agents and their histories to see patterns in how similarly their clients have handled contract negotiations.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

He is pretty much holding them hostage now

It’s getting close to that point but there’s still a week to go until free agency. The Flames have likely worked on all their contingency plans and just need to know a day or two in advance. They just can’t be holding the bag to the very last hours as they will need to be in contact with agents of other UFA’s.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

The offense was revolving around Johnny

There is a big gap between him and the next guy

Big shoe to fill

No duh. That's the point. The team would have to change its offence and style. And maybe for the better.

[powderjunkie]

CBJ were a 98 pt team that swept TBL and lost to BOS in 6 with:

Bobrovsky starting 61 games
Panarin leading all F's in TOI and the team in pts
Duchene* TDL acquisition who had 10pts in 10 playoff gp
Duclair/Dzingel (traded for each other at TDL)

After losing all of those pieces they became a 95pt (pace) team that beat TOR in the qualifying rd and lost to TBL in 5. Which included handing the net to Korpisalo (he played those playoffs) and Elvis (who had yet to play an NHL game). And basically losing Josh Anderson for that season, too.


Things fell apart in the 56 game season (70 pt pace). Anderson for Domi. Despite Dubois pouting like a baby they were 2-2-2 when they traded him. Laine and Domi were both sub .5 ppg players. Their Mikko Koivu signing only played 7 games.

Korpisalo was bad (33gp - .894 / 3.30). Seems like it took them a while to hand the reins to Elvis (28gp .916 / 2.77).

Then they lost Jones, Savard, and Foligno, but still bounced back to 81pts this year.

I suppose you could say they fell into the medicore middle zone, but they also had a ton of seismic changes beyond Panarin, managed to pick 5/12/25 last year and 6/12 this year and may already be back on the upswing.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If Gaudreau goes, the team has to adapt. No one player should be the key to team success. If the offence revolves around Gaudreau, then that's not necessarily a good thing. If Lindy takes a bigger role, if the money not spent on Gaudreau can be used to pay a decent secondary centre threat (via trade - there's no good UFA ones out there except Kadri and I don't like his ask) and maybe some defensive additions then maybe a different looking team playing Sutter hockey can succeed.

But the problem isn’t just losing your best player. Your 2nd best player isn’t wrapped up long term. You have 2 more pricey RFAs so even with Gaudreau leaving to replace him means dumping picks with Lucic for someone to take his salary

If you have extra picks and some top prospects this team could easily move forward without Johnny. But it’s the combination of lack of cap space, lack of core players signed long term, lack of picks, lack of high end prospects combined with losing Johnny that will kill this team move forward