Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Time will tell - also, I'm not sure how taking it to 11:59PM EST means they can't go after Kadri or Forsberg when the market opens.

...but do you think that Kadri or Forsberg are going to sign here with us losing our best player? Even if we somehow do get one of them - the team is worse because neither of those players are near Johnny's level.

Forsberg might sign if he is buds with the Swedish Mafia. He would slide in to the top line RW spot to play with Lindholm. If he isn’t about those guys or wants something different then I am not sure how they could get him without overpaying.

Johnny is plan A but silly to suggest they have no contingencies in place.

[Monahammer]

I prefer Forsberg as the contingency plan for Tkachuk. If Johnny leaves with nothing coming in, I would say the contingency plan might just be rebuild.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

I prefer Forsberg as the contingency plan for Tkachuk. If Johnny leaves with nothing coming in, I would say the contingency plan might just be rebuild.

I find it hard to see that working. Even as a contingency for Johnny there is heavy surgery needed on the cap to make it work. If Chucky wants out he can be dealt for futures or win now players (Batherson+7thOA?) but if Johnny leaves there is a void that can’t be filled via trade but could be considered with free agency.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

"I still think gaudreau is going to resign"



Fella, you have NEVER said this publicly before lol. No way you can jump ships on this one now.



Francis continues to be a total joke. But, consequently, his opinion is entirely meaningless. Him changing it does not make Johnny signing any more or less likely to happen. Francis will be finding out at the same time (or much later) than the rest of us.

Francis changed his opinion sometime between the end of last season and the start of last season. I recall him addressing the change in opinion stating that he now felt that Gaudreau would re-sign. That's what I remember.

[dissentowner]

Forsberg is doing the exact same thing as Gaudreau is, he wants to stay in Nashville but he will drag it out until he gets exactly what he wants from them. Neither of these guys are going to FA in my opinion.

[powderjunkie]

It's interesting to think about things from a lens of one year ago:

- By not coming to terms on an extension by UFA/NTC day Johnny probably faced some risk of getting traded, but bet on himself for more money and/or long-term location control.

- There are lots of ways a person could rationalize taking less money, but here is a pretty good one: 1 year ago johnny was probably looking at a ~$64-72M deal (over 8 years). With that in mind, it might not be too hard to 'settle' for say $75M over 7 years at his preferred destination.

[Rutuu]

If Gaudreau (or any player) takes less, then we're just as likely to overpay some FA, or trade for a bad contract. Everyone has to take less in that scenario which doesn't really happen unless you have a standard set early on with your leadership group. Now being able to offer an 8th year is an advantage to set that standard with AAV, and have the total contract be a maximum.

I'd rather he get the maximum he can. If he makes $12m, and we have to stop giving term and $$$ to the middle of the roster vets instead of concentrating on young players and developing I think that puts us further ahead long term.

We already got cheap years from him and Tkachuk that helped move us forward, now time to find the new crop of those players while we have reasonably young well paid talent.

This made up fantasy that athletes should take less to stay is ridiculous. Pay the best the most. The salary cap leveled the playing field, so every team can afford their best players. We need to drop the thinking from the non-salary cap era...young players get paid on their first RFA contract now, non-superstars are depreciating assets at 30 as the rule, not the exception and every team has UFAs, so we shouldn't panic when they come up.

Francis...when that guy retires will anyone even notice? What a legacy.

[Moneyhands23]

If Frank Serevelli is on point, I wonder if Johnny's agent is trying to make BT negotiate against himself.

If not then I think it just can't be a positive situation and Johnny is definitely thinking about going closer to home.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

If Frank Serevelli is on point, I wonder if Johnny's agent is trying to make BT negotiate against himself.

If not then I think it just can't be a positive situation and Johnny is definitely thinking about going closer to home.

If you had to wait from 18-27 yrs old to see what offers were out there as an UFA...wouldn't you wait that extra month to actually know?

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

If you had to wait from 18-27 yrs old to see what offers were out there as an UFA...wouldn't you wait that extra month to actually know?

Idk...I guess it's hard to tell. So many guys that love the franchise they play for don't.

[tkflames]

Classic Lewis Gross....this is why Johnny had to over rule him last time. Leverage the absolute maximum $$ as opposed to balance contract with competitiveness. As a result his client will spend the last 2-3 years being a boat anchor but he extracts the maximum value on his cut. I don't think that if Johnny gets 10M+ on any team that said team is likely to win the Cup.

But Johnny and Lewis will get paid. This is the problem with a zero sum game which is what this salary cap creates .

[dammage79]

I figure the Flames are losing 1-2 of the priority wingers this offseason.

Can't afford all 3 and ice a team. And yes, that includes extra moves like moving a Monny (doubtful he's traded anyways) or Looch retiring.

I'd prefer if the Flames lost only Mangiapane and just traded his RFA rights for another RFA. He's got great value right
now and IMO selling high while keeping your two more important wingers makes all sorts of sense.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Classic Lewis Gross....this is why Johnny had to over rule him last time. Leverage the absolute maximum $$ as opposed to balance contract with competitiveness. As a result his client will spend the last 2-3 years being a boat anchor but he extracts the maximum value on his cut. I don't think that if Johnny gets 10M+ on any team that said team is likely to win the Cup.

But Johnny and Lewis will get paid. This is the problem with a zero sum game which is what this salary cap creates .

It's not a zero-sum game. Every team has to spend within the floor and ceiling of the agreed to salary range. Players make money through their salaries and teams can make money through us.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by butterfly

It's not a zero-sum game. Every team has to spend within the floor and ceiling of the agreed to salary range. Players make money through their salaries and teams can make money through us.

Every competitive team spends to the cap. For every high paid player, someone else needs to get paid less. The only way to win is if you have high end players on their 1st or 2nd contract.

If Johnny is taking 12% of the cap...you need a bunch of players to overperform their contract to compensate.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

If you had to wait from 18-27 yrs old to see what offers were out there as an UFA...wouldn't you wait that extra month to actually know?

The risk is losing money on the extra year. The offers would have to be basically unprecedented to beat any reasonable Flames offer.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Every competitive team spends to the cap. For every high paid player, someone else needs to get paid less. The only way to win is if you have high end players on their 1st or 2nd contract.

If Johnny is taking 12% of the cap...you need a bunch of players to overperform their contract to compensate.

Ya guys like Pelletier, Coranato and Zary would be very important

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Idk...I guess it's hard to tell. So many guys that love the franchise they play for don't.

In those cases it isn't a 1 month difference...they sign 12 months ahead (or in rare cases by the TDL) and sleep easy. The hardest part is over for Johnny - I think it'll take a Godfather offer to get an answer from him before July 27.

[Major Major]

Fun scenario if all signs point to Gaudreau going to Philly...

Trade them his rights for JVR and their 2023 draft pick with no lotto protection. Take advantage of whatever hubris is guiding them to believe that they could actually be a good team next year. That team blows.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I still think even if Gaudreau were to go to FA he will find out there is no takers or fits near his home town. Let's look at the places that always get thrown around.

Philly: They are a disaster. Their key players are all out with injuries to start the year, they lost Giroux, Torts is notorious for being a hard coach for skill players to play for, and they would have to do some crazy deals to make the salary work. Oh yeah, and they suck and will suck because they refuse to admit they need to go full rebuild. Gaudreau wants to win, he isn't going there

New Jersey: They have the cap space but from all of the media takes I have read from there they won't be interested. They need to spend money on starting goaltending, bolstering the D, a number 3 centre, but the main complaint is the team is too small. They have lots of skilled small players, they need size. They are rumoured to be going after a JT Miller trade hard.

NYI: This is not a very good team that even Trotz could not keep overachieving. They are tight on cap and I they look like a team that will toil as a bubble team for years. I don't see it

Boston: Boston needs to face the fact they need to rebuild. They fired an excellent coach who got great milage out of an aging core. Marchand and Bergeron are getting long in the tooth, Hall is Hall, flashes of brilliance and a lot of nights off, and Pasta is rumoured to want out because he can see that team already peaked, they are going nowhere.

I still think it gets done before UFA but even if he makes it there I still think he sees there is no fit for being close to home.

This is a good glass-nearly-empty assessment of each team. You missed one...

Calgary: Inconsistent. Never gotten past game 5 in round 2. Sutter only guaranteed for one more year. Only 3 players under contract past 2024 (though obviously RFAs will be around longer): Markstrom (generally good, but on the older side), Coleman (ditto), and Andersson (good). A few good prospects coming, but there is a general pick deficit. Tanev has been amazing, but it's hard to bet on that continuing much longer w/ durability.


On the flip side, there are glass-half-full arguments for each team (including CGY). There are also a few more dark horse teams: WAS, PIT, CAR, CBJ. All a short flight or <8hr drive from Salem.

CBJ is particularly intriguing to me. If they could flip Laine for a D (ideally RHD) they'd be in great shape...not sure who that D is though, and Laine is just such a weird asset..maybe they keep him, too. Sillinger-K Johnson-Jenner-Roslovic is a pretty nice future down the middle. Forsberg might be a better fit there.

[Vinny01]

Johnny is not going to Columbus unless he is offered the highest cap hit in the league.

Jersey is the biggest threat because they have money, close to home, and a lot of young talent to sell with a desire to win right away. Philly is a threat because it is his home team where his buddy Hayes plays.