Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by activeStick

New Jersey is a team on the rise, I agree with that sentiment. The Flames number 1 goalie finished 2nd for the Vezina, their top centre finished 2nd for the Selke and their head coach was voted the best coach in the NHL. Their top line all scored 40 goals and Johnny's linemates got more than 100 points. Nobody gave the Flames much of a chance last summer heading into the season and they won the division. Also have some interesting prospects in the A very close to being ready.

The Flames will be good for a while and in my opinion, will be better than New Jersey by a wide margin over the next 3 seasons.

Are you saying the same if Johnny bolts to NJ?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

That number seemed a little low. I checked hockey reference and it shows 43 skaters in the NHL this season age 35 and older.

Gaudreau seems like a prime candidate for a long career and IMO, UFA at 35 vs 36 has more than a zero value to him. Flames will have to pay for that 8th year.

I went off capfriendly. But this year, so a few players probably are now without a contract that played last year. Either way, Calgary will no doubt pay 10M or so for the last year. Another team would have to offer 7m to him at age 35 to make the difference. Look at new contracts for age 35 players at that amount. Pretty few and far between.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I went off capfriendly. But this year, so a few players probably are now without a contract that played last year. Either way, Calgary will no doubt pay 10M or so for the last year. Another team would have to offer 7m to him at age 35 to make the difference. Look at new contracts for age 35 players at that amount. Pretty few and far between.

I have little doubt that Calgary will offer him the best financial deal.

While money undoubtedly matters to Johnny (like all players) , I expect that he knows he's making a boatload wherever he goes, and his decision will be largely based on where he wants to live and play.

I do expect, if he decides to live in the States, to use the Calgary offer as leverage to get as much as he can from his US suitors. It's why players want to get to UFA.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I have little doubt that Calgary will offer him the best financial deal.

While money undoubtedly matters to Johnny (like all players) , I expect that he knows he's making a boatload wherever he goes, and his decision will be largely based on where he wants to live and play.

I do expect, if he decides to live in the States, to use the Calgary offer as leverage to get as much as he can from his US suitors. It's why players want to get to UFA.

I agree. I was just getting at the argument that a 7 year deal for less total money is unimportant because he can make up the money in a new contract after 7 years. While it’s possible, I find it pretty risky, from a monetary standpoint.

If the Flames offer 10.5, he says no, and gets 11M from NJD, he has to get at least a one year contract worth 7 million at age 35 to make up the cash.

Speaking of NJD, it doesn’t seem like they part with money that easily these days, the way the Bratt negotiations are going.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Are you saying the same if Johnny bolts to NJ?

That scenario would open up so many opportunities for the Flames, so it's harder to be as certain given the cap space freed up to add guys like Forsberg, Palat, etc. into the fold or if the Flames run into a problem with Tkachuk's contract and move in an entirely different direction.

The Devils, with Johnny are absolutely a ton better. But are they a top 3 team in the Metropolitan? Nope, for me. They have exciting young players, but they'll need time.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It will take a lot more than just the #2 pick to land Pasta in NJ.

Disagree. Maybe if Pasta was signed to a reasonable extension, but he's currently a year from UFA...nobody is giving up a 2OA for a possible rental.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I agree. I was just getting at the argument that a 7 year deal for less total money is unimportant because he can make up the money in a new contract after 7 years. While it’s possible, I find it pretty risky, from a monetary standpoint.

If the Flames offer 10.5, he says no, and gets 11M from NJD, he has to get at least a one year contract worth 7 million at age 35 to make up the cash.

Speaking of NJD, it doesn’t seem like they part with money that easily these days, the way the Bratt negotiations are going.

Maybe NJD is just trying to squeeze their RFAs while they have the leverage; they had not problem throwing $63M at Hamilton last summer.

Bratt is an interesting case. Coming off 1 great season, but his previous 4 were a bit up/down. I'd bet they're grinding both Zacha and Bratt while shopping them, and will keep one/trade the other depending on AAV vs trade value. They've got to start consolidating sooner or later.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Disagree. Maybe if Pasta was signed to a reasonable extension, but he's currently a year from UFA...nobody is giving up a 2OA for a possible rental.




Maybe NJD is just trying to squeeze their RFAs while they have the leverage; they had not problem throwing $63M at Hamilton last summer.

Bratt is an interesting case. Coming off 1 great season, but his previous 4 were a bit up/down. I'd bet they're grinding both Zacha and Bratt while shopping them, and will keep one/trade the other depending on AAV vs trade value. They've got to start consolidating sooner or later.

Yes, they paid Hamilton, which was a kind of odd choice. But it’s a weird structure cash wise. Only 6.3 in the first two years, then it doubles for two years before declining again. So this coming year its cheap on cash. Coincidentally the years when it’s at it’s highest are when a bunch of contracts expire so they will have a lot more cash handy.

I doubt Gaudreau will accept a similar middle loaded deal. He will want the most money way up front.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I went off capfriendly. But this year, so a few players probably are now without a contract that played last year. Either way, Calgary will no doubt pay 10M or so for the last year. Another team would have to offer 7m to him at age 35 to make the difference. Look at new contracts for age 35 players at that amount. Pretty few and far between.

Not sure I get the math. Other teams may offer greater AAV over shorter term so who knows what the differential will be.

[BurningSteel]

Johnny "Forever a flame" Gaudreau.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Not sure I get the math. Other teams may offer greater AAV over shorter term so who knows what the differential will be.

Sorry I left out an assumption of an 11M AAV on a 7 year contract from another team. That is 77M (versus Calgary's 84M deal) leaving 7 million to be made up in the last year. If they pay 11.5, he'd need a 3.5M deal in year 8.

If Calgary goes up to 11M they will be paying him 88M. To make the same money over 7 years he has to get $12.6. Or, if he gets 11.5 over 7 from team X he needs 7.5 in a new contract (at age 35) to make the same over 8 years.

[Incogneto]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington could be players for Gaudreau’s services.

If he doesn't sign, I was kinda hoping for the elusive sign-and-trade with Boston for Pasternak. Word is that Pasta wants out of Boston, so get him here with 1yr left, and sign him to an 8yr deal.

Everyone wins.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Incogneto

If he doesn't sign, I was kinda hoping for the elusive sign-and-trade with Boston for Pasternak. Word is that Pasta wants out of Boston, so get him here with 1yr left, and sign him to an 8yr deal.

Everyone wins.

That can be an ordinary trade and sign. Calgary can get the 8 year deal on their own after trading, because he still has a year left. Sign and trade is Boston signs him for 8 and then trades him in a preplanned deal, because the window for trade and sign has passed.

But Pastrnak will want to be paid a lot IMO. He's been on a bargain contract since he signed. Similar to JG really.

[kyuss275]

Originally Posted by Incogneto

If he doesn't sign, I was kinda hoping for the elusive sign-and-trade with Boston for Pasternak. Word is that Pasta wants out of Boston, so get him here with 1yr left, and sign him to an 8yr deal.

Everyone wins.

Not sure why Boston would do that? Can’t see the 8th year being worth the amount they could get back for Pasternak in another trade.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by dino7c

some people on here will just never give the Flames credit...3 players and a coach finished top 2 for major awards. 3 NHL team all stars of 10 league wide.
Yeah they had a tough round two, so did a lot of teams

Devils have a couple decent players, they also had 63 points...worse than any Flames team ever, EVER. They won't be a playoff team for another 3 or 4 years at least, Gaudreau's prime.

But in this scenario we’re comparing the Flames without Gaudreau to the other teams with Gaudreau. And Jersey’s young players and prospects will improve sooner than 4 years from now.

We live in an age of league parity. Over a span of 7 seasons most teams don’t have wildly different records.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

But in this scenario we’re comparing the Flames without Gaudreau to the other teams with Gaudreau. And Jersey’s young players and prospects will improve sooner than 4 years from now.

We live in an age of league parity. Over a span of 7 seasons most teams don’t have wildly different records.

But isn't the point "there's a team that Johnny will want because they are going to be good with him"? And can't you say the same about Calgary, who also has a distinct goalie advantage (including Wolf). And also JG knows he has chemistry with Lindholm and Tkachuk (and also Monahan when he's healthy) versus just guessing with Hughes/Hischier. He also knows he has a Selke quality linemate in Lindholm.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

But isn't the point "there's a team that Johnny will want because they are going to be good with him"? And can't you say the same about Calgary, who also has a distinct goalie advantage (including Wolf). And also JG knows he has chemistry with Lindholm and Tkachuk (and also Monahan when he's healthy) versus just guessing with Hughes/Hischier. He also knows he has a Selke quality linemate in Lindholm.

He isn’t going to an elite contender. And he likely isn’t going to a basket-case franchise either. His likely options are all in the middle pack of 20 or so teams. Over a 7 or 8 year contract, any of those options, with Gaudreau in the roster, isn’t obviously better than the others from a competitive point of view.

Just look at the Flames record over the last five seasons and then look at the Flyers - both yo-yoing season by season. That’s parity. Flames will likely have a better record next season. But over the next 7 seasons with Gaudreau on the Flyers roster instead of the Flames? I wouldn’t confidently bet money on that.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Incogneto

If he doesn't sign, I was kinda hoping for the elusive sign-and-trade with Boston for Pasternak. Word is that Pasta wants out of Boston, so get him here with 1yr left, and sign him to an 8yr deal.

Everyone wins.

Except Boston, who can sign Johnny as a UFA and then move Pasta (even as a one year rental) for a ton of futures.

Pasta wants out because he wants to be paid more than the Bruins want to give him.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yes, they paid Hamilton, which was a kind of odd choice. But it’s a weird structure cash wise. Only 6.3 in the first two years, then it doubles for two years before declining again. So this coming year its cheap on cash. Coincidentally the years when it’s at it’s highest are when a bunch of contracts expire so they will have a lot more cash handy.

I doubt Gaudreau will accept a similar middle loaded deal. He will want the most money way up front.

That structure was probably Hamilton's request based on escrow - 17.2% last season and 10% this season, then he cashes in for the 3 years where it's at 6%.

Not sure if the Devils are actually worried about cash, or just trying to be frugal with the cap. They've got so many young forwards that they can afford to play hard ball, even if it means a sour relationship--> trade.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by BurningSteel

Johnny "Forever a flame" Gaudreau.

He ain’t getting that if he leaves

[Erick Estrada]

I think the contender thing is overblown when you are talking 7 year contracts. Sure a player doesn't want to go to a place like Buffalo and Arizona where losing is a perennial thing but there's so much parity now that if a roster has solid talent chances are they will have some good seasons over the course of the contract. This time last season I don't think many UFA's would have been looking at the Flames as a contender coming off a really bad season. Things can turn around fast if a team has enough quality players on the roster and/or hires the right head coach.