Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Buff]

The Flyers can't be in the picture unless they unload a lot of salary at the draft. They currently have $5.1M in cap space and 3 RFAs left to sign. At least one of those RFAs they want to keep. They don't have room and need to make some cap dump deals to sign Johnny.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

You can’t blame him for testing the market. For all we know someone swoops in and signs Johnny to a 12 x 7. I wouldn’t want to be the guy that signs that, we know how crazy GMs can get.

I think if we offer a reasonable 7 year deal (assuming the 8 year is off the table and he’s testing the market), then I think Johnny would be loyal enough to stay unless a different team offers a total of 10m in the whole deal.

If the Flames have offered Johnny a very good 8 year deal ( and I think that they have 100%), and he hadn’t accepted by the time UFA comes, it’s unlikely his loyalty will get him to stay, as he’s already made the decision to move closer to home. This will not come down to the best money offer.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Well it's been changed back a bit now with two lotteries, not three, and max ten increase - plus only allowed two wins in five years.

But winning a lottery doesn't guarantee you a Stanley Cup. No one said that. Picking high, even consistently, isn't even a guarantee to be good. Edmonton and Buffalo prove that.

But it's looking more and more that in order to win the Cup you need to pick high to get those franchise defining players. Need is an overstatement but its certainly the most utilized strategy, and a proper rebuild with multiple high picks is the most surefire way to build a contender. Hoping that someone will trade a top player like Thornton/Seguin/O'Reilly for a couple spare pucks and a hot dog seems to be not the greatest strategy.

I agree that to win the cup you need a great (or that year's best?) set of players and players enter the league via the draft. I really don't care where they are drafted as the goal is just to have better players than the other team. Andersson was a 2nd round pick - but he's a good #2 defenceman on most teams - who I think would be happy with a first pairing defenceman out of many first round picks. As I mentioned, many of us are super excited about Wolf who was literally taken with their last pick in the draft.

I'm not trying to focus on you specifically. I am not disagreeing that the strategy of blowing up the team and aiming to draft high for several seasons has the capacity of accumulating a number of good players. It's just not that simple. Often people will point to Chicago and ignore the decade that they were terrible before they drafted Kane.

Take the 2014 draft as an example and do a re-draft (I pick it because it has Calgary's highest ever draft pick). Draisaitl is clearly #1 and I think Pastrnak is #2. Ekblad is a great player to round out the top three. Fiala, Ehlers, and Larkin are also good players in the draft. In the 8 years since that draft, I'd say that there is one franchise defining player there. Certainly there can be more in other drafts but the notion that we can just be bad for years and accumulate lots of good players is too simple for me.

Your earlier post mentions Carey Price at #5 as an example of a highly picked player. Well, the Flames 1st line centre was drafted 5th overall; Monahan was 6th overall. Tkachuk was 6th overall. Hanifin was 5th overall. Does anyone discuss their draft position when evaluating the team?

Again, there are lots of people that think trading this crop of players for picks and drafting would be beneficial for the team in the long run. I'm not as convinced and am just sharing my reasons why.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Buff

The Flyers can't be in the picture unless they unload a lot of salary at the draft. They currently have $5.1M in cap space and 3 RFAs left to sign. At least one of those RFAs they want to keep. They don't have room and need to make some cap dump deals to sign Johnny.

They move JVR and things get very easy for them. JVR is also still pretty good, so they should get an asset back rather than having to pay an asset.

It's not hard for Philly to make it work (and they've openly said they'll be spending money this summer).

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

I agree that to win the cup you need a great (or that year's best?) set of players and players enter the league via the draft. I really don't care where they are drafted as the goal is just to have better players than the other team. Andersson was a 2nd round pick - but he's a good #2 defenceman on most teams - who I think would be happy with a first pairing defenceman out of many first round picks. As I mentioned, many of us are super excited about Wolf who was literally taken with their last pick in the draft.

I'm not trying to focus on you specifically. I am not disagreeing that the strategy of blowing up the team and aiming to draft high for several seasons has the capacity of accumulating a number of good players. It's just not that simple. Often people will point to Chicago and ignore the decade that they were terrible before they drafted Kane.

Take the 2014 draft as an example and do a re-draft (I pick it because it has Calgary's highest ever draft pick). Draisaitl is clearly #1 and I think Pastrnak is #2. Ekblad is a great player to round out the top three. Fiala, Ehlers, and Larkin are also good players in the draft. In the 8 years since that draft, I'd say that there is one franchise defining player there. Certainly there can be more in other drafts but the notion that we can just be bad for years and accumulate lots of good players is too simple for me.

Your earlier post mentions Carey Price at #5 as an example of a highly picked player. Well, the Flames 1st line centre was drafted 5th overall; Monahan was 6th overall. Tkachuk was 6th overall. Hanifin was 5th overall. Does anyone discuss their draft position when evaluating the team?

Again, there are lots of people that think trading this crop of players for picks and drafting would be beneficial for the team in the long run. I'm not as convinced and am just sharing my reasons why.

Lindholm 5th overall....Flames have plenty of high picks in their lineup. 5 top 6 picks

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Lindholm 5th overall....Flames have plenty of high picks in their lineup. 5 top 6 picks

The difference between top 6 picks and top 3 picks is generally championships.

[Cobra]

The job of a GM is to sign your most talented player before his UFA year or trade him for assets.

Some on this forum argue that it is ok for if he leaves as you get cap space.
These same people also say the GM job is hard here as no FA want to come to Calgary.
So having cap space is useless if no big FA will come here.

This team lacks high end talent (playoff performance) so potentially losing Johnny for nothing is inexcusable.

A good GM in a market that has trouble getting FA talent never gets to this position.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

They move JVR and things get very easy for them. JVR is also still pretty good, so they should get an asset back rather than having to pay an asset.



It's not hard for Philly to make it work (and they've openly said they'll be spending money this summer).

It doesn't get "very easy" if thet are signing Gaudreau. Even after moving JVR the Flyers would still heed to maneuver in order to make room. It certainly becomes more audible, but there is no question that it would be a significant challenge for Philadelphia to pay Gaudreau.

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[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The difference between top 6 picks and top 3 picks is generally championships.

Depends who they are... Tkachuk and Gaudreau are equivalent to top 3 picks...Lindholm is right there too.

3 Flames finished 2nd for major NHL awards this season, if they keep Gaudreau they have the talent to win IMO


Lose Gaudreau and Tkachuk? Have to see what's coming in

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

The difference between top 6 picks and top 3 picks is generally championships.

But in the post dino7c is responding to the guy was arguing that #5 pick Carey Price qualified as the type of franchise player needed to win a Cup.

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[Hockey_Ninja]

Flyers are definitely gonna be pushing to sign Johnny

https://twitter.com/user/status/1537889304822722560

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I think the mistake you are making is in arguing that these teams—Pittsburgh, Colorado, TB—planned their rebuilds. They did not. Rebuilds happen because a team is bad, not the other way around. Over the next few years, with or without Gaudreau, the Flames will not he bad enough nor aging out to the point if triggering a rebuild.

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And they never will be. You're right that especially Pittsburgh and Tampa may not have planned their rebuilds, the reason they happened was pretty much ownership issues. The Penguins were bankrupt, they were close to not just leaving but folding and if not for Mario would have been screwed. So it was forced, just bottoming out, spending little, hoping that Bettman could properly read the braille on the lottery ball to get the Penguins Crosby.

Tampa also was going through ownership issues and had some pretty drastic turn over organizational wide in that 2008 era. They had already "let" Bullin walk when Chicago made him the highest paid goalie along with other players from that 2004 Stanley Cup finalist team like Kubina.

Then Sarich walks, they trade Prospal as a rental but then re-sign him in the off-season, Brad Richards and his high contract are moved to Dallas at the 2008 deadline. All of this results in them securing a bottom spot in 2008 drafting Stamkos.

And then Kuba walks, and then the new owners tell Boyle he either waives his NTC or they put him on waivers to get out of his new contract and as they continue to shed they near last and get Hedman.

But that 2008 team, Lecavalier (27), St. Louis (32), Richards (27), Boyle (30), Kuba (30), Ranger (21), that's not a burn it down and start over core if they are on the Flames. There's almost no chance that the Flames allow that team to finish at the bottom, and aren't trading away Richards and Boyle which secured them Hedman as well.

It's lucky that bad ownership resulted in them forming a near dynasty a decade later, for both teams, but because they were willing to lose (or not care about winning) here they are.

Colorado had Sakic fight the snowblower but they saw the writing on the wall, not trying to re-sign or replace players like Brunnette, they bottomed out and got Duchene.

If Gaudreau doesn't re-sign, this should be the time the Flames rebuild. Otherwise if they get some consolation prize winger in UFA to stay middle pack team while going through the same thing with Tkachuk who leaves at end of his contract.

[OptimalTates]

Look at the 2014 off-season. They finally draft in the top 5, get Sam Bennett, but instead of being patient and doing another year of rebuild in 2015, which I heard had some okay prospects, they immediately decide to trade futures for Bollig. Mother ####ing Bollig. Then they go out and overpay to sign Raymond, Hiller, and Engelland. Making them just good enough to squeak into the playoffs in game 81.

I mean it was a fun season. Gaudreau against the Kings to secure the spot, favourable divisional matchup (wildcards both being central) means the Flames vs Canucks is probably the worst and second worst teams playing each other. And we get Stajan's goal to defeat the Canucks.

But I don't know, maybe instead of Bollig and Raymond that McDavid dude would have been a better long term solution.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Look at the 2014 off-season. They finally draft in the top 5, get Sam Bennett, but instead of being patient and doing another year of rebuild in 2015, which I heard had some okay prospects, they immediately decide to trade futures for Bollig. Mother ####ing Bollig. Then they go out and overpay to sign Raymond, Hiller, and Engelland. Making them just good enough to squeak into the playoffs in game 81.

I mean it was a fun season. Gaudreau against the Kings to secure the spot, favourable divisional matchup (wildcards both being central) means the Flames vs Canucks is probably the worst and second worst teams playing each other. And we get Stajan's goal to defeat the Canucks.

But I don't know, maybe instead of Bollig and Raymond that McDavid dude would have been a better long term solution.

Yeah because the Flames obviously would have won the McDavid lottery if they didn't have Bollig and Raymond

If it were only as easy as you seem to think

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Look at the 2014 off-season. They finally draft in the top 5, get Sam Bennett, but instead of being patient and doing another year of rebuild in 2015, which I heard had some okay prospects, they immediately decide to trade futures for Bollig. Mother ####ing Bollig. Then they go out and overpay to sign Raymond, Hiller, and Engelland. Making them just good enough to squeak into the playoffs in game 81.

I mean it was a fun season. Gaudreau against the Kings to secure the spot, favourable divisional matchup (wildcards both being central) means the Flames vs Canucks is probably the worst and second worst teams playing each other. And we get Stajan's goal to defeat the Canucks.

But I don't know, maybe instead of Bollig and Raymond that McDavid dude would have been a better long term solution.

Bolling and Raymond was not the difference between making the playoffs and finishing bottom-three.

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[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Bolling and Raymond was not the difference between making the playoffs and finishing bottom-three.

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Even then the Oilers had an 88% chance of not getting McDavid...####ing flukes

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Cobra

The job of a GM is to sign your most talented player before his UFA year or trade him for assets.

Some on this forum argue that it is ok for if he leaves as you get cap space.
These same people also say the GM job is hard here as no FA want to come to Calgary.
So having cap space is useless if no big FA will come here.

This team lacks high end talent (playoff performance) so potentially losing Johnny for nothing is inexcusable.

A good GM in a market that has trouble getting FA talent never gets to this position.

For all we know, ownership did not allow him to trade him.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

For all we know, ownership did not allow him to trade him.

Cobra vs. The Cobra

[CalgaryFan1988]

Originally Posted by Buff

The Flyers can't be in the picture unless they unload a lot of salary at the draft. They currently have $5.1M in cap space and 3 RFAs left to sign. At least one of those RFAs they want to keep. They don't have room and need to make some cap dump deals to sign Johnny.

Can't see the Islanders being in it either, 12M in cap space with Dobson as RFA and only 3 D signed.

Rangers have 12M in cap space too, with only 8 forwards and 5 D signed and Giorgio and Kaki are RFA's.

Realistically in the Metro they have the Hurricanes, Penguins, Devils, and Columbus that could make it work.

Out of those, I could only see him being interested in (maybe) Carolina and definitely NJ.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Bolling and Raymond was not the difference between making the playoffs and finishing bottom-three.

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Of course not, because the year before they had traded futures for the likes of Russell, Colborne and Galiardi while the year before that they had signed Hudler and Wideman to try and stay competitive with Iginla for that last hurray.

So instead of trading Iginla at the start of 2012 and doing a rebuild, they kept him, bolstered the team, still sucked but not enough to draft MacKinnon or Barkov (though lucky that they did get a quality player in Monahan).

And now even after Iginla's departure, and unlike the Avalanche when they lost Sakic or the Lightning when they lost Richards, because the Flames had Wideman and Hudler in 2014, they are bad but not bad enough to get Draisaitl or Ekblad.

But now Monahan has had a solid rookie year, Gaudreau's left college, they could be better a team despite losing Cammalleri. Certainly not a favourite, but just good enough that if you supplement them with Hiller, Raymond, Engelland and Bollig that they could squeak into the playoffs apparently.

Oh, and they do! So no turning back now. Can't afford to have that first round pick take time to develop, so trade it for an established player in Hamilton instead of drafting Barzal and having him develop in the WHL for a year.

And Hamilton flourishes with the Flames in his first year - just enough to keep them from bottoming out and going for a player like Matthews when they move Hudler at the deadline. (Thank #### for the Canucks or else the Flames could be stuck with Juolevi or something instead of Tkachuk from this draft).

Time to go for it now certainly. Brouwer? Don't mind if I do. Hey team is doing alright, again not a favourite at all, but let's trade some futures for Michael Stone. Oh, got swept?

Well that's fine since Tkachuk kicked ass. So let's make a splash and trade a 1st+ for Hamonic. Mike Smith for a draft pick? Bargain!

Missed the playoffs and no first round pick? Well things are about to get real...real deal that is. Bring in Neal surely he will be the one to bring the Flames over the edge.

It's been 15 years of this. It wasn't that Hiller, Engelland, Bollig and Raymond were the difference between the playoffs and McDavid, it was that the Flames were determined to fight for the playoffs instead of not signing those guys and trading Hudler, Russell and friends and bottoming out (huge credit for trading Glencross that year though).