Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Colorado getting Makar was even luckier than Edmonton getting McDavid. All Edmonton had to do was win the lottery as there was zero chance anyone but McDavid was going first overall. Colorado had to lose the lottery and have the defenceman-equivalent of McDavid happen to be the best player available at #4... because, let's be honest, they would have taken one of the two Cs available (or even if they forced a D pick, would have taken Heiskanen over Makar) had they won the lottery.

Holy crap, totally forgot this even happened! Man, poor NJ LOL.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by bubbsy

Disclaimer : I'm 100% a scorched earth rebuild guy.

That being said, how interesting is it that the flames enjoyed the kind of year they had without the highest drafted centers by the franchise, playing basically no part in it (monahan, Bennett). Gaudreau becoming a bona fide top 10 forward in the league has been a blessing for the flames. Otherwise, this entire rebuild would have been an epic waste of almost a decade.

A lot of people also criticize the Flames management for not bring aggressive enough adding top 3 picks.

Big reason why they didn’t was because of their 4th round pick in 2011. He was too good too quickly but no way you don’t play him

Also 2015 no first landed then Anderson Kylington and Mangiapane. Hell of a draft with out first

I hope Johnny stays and wants to win and leaves money on the table. Flames have been drafting very well for awhile now and Stockton has some promising players. Johnny just needs to not put money as his only priority and this team has a chance move forward

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Yes, but how many teams that haven't sucked in the cap era have won the Cup? Boston? Detroit pre-Cup but they also willing to bottom out now.

If you want to put a team that likely makes or at least fights for the playoffs most years, but outside of some insane Cinderalla run or even better luck than winning the draft lottery, it's fine staying mediocre and hoping. The Minnesota/Calgary type strategy. But if you want to win the Cup, how haven't we learned from at least Crosby and the Penguins in 2009?

I think the mistake you are making is in arguing that these teams—Pittsburgh, Colorado, TB—planned their rebuilds. They did not. Rebuilds happen because a team is bad, not the other way around. Over the next few years, with or without Gaudreau, the Flames will not he bad enough nor aging out to the point if triggering a rebuild.

Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

But you would bank on a tank and hoping you get a high pick AND during a year with a game changing player?

I would bank on building through the draft over any other strategy, yes.

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

There is no sure thing strategy and no one way to build a contender.

Seems like drafting impactful players in the top 5 of the draft is nearing a requirement.

Stamkos, Hedman, Drouin (Sergachev)
Pietrangelo
Ovechkin, Backstrom
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury
Kane, Toews
Doughty, Schenn (Richards)
Potentially Mackinnon, Landeskog, Makar, Byram

The only Cup winner to not have a super impactful player drafted by them in the top 5 since 2009 was Boston. (They had Kessel drafted fifth who was traded for Seguin though I think it's obvious they win without rookie Seguin.)

It may, usually does, take more than one bullet. If the Kings grabbed Hickey at 4 then decided to go for it, they don't get Doughty. The Hawks don't have Kane if they're happy building around Barker and signing a bunch of UFAs in 2004-2006. So the idea that the Flames (or any team) tanks and drafts top 2 this year then instantly becomes contender is not reasonable, but a real multi-year rebuild.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

I would bank on building through the draft over any other strategy, yes.



Seems like drafting impactful players in the top 5 of the draft is nearing a requirement.

Stamkos, Hedman, Drouin (Sergachev)
Pietrangelo
Ovechkin, Backstrom
Crosby, Malkin, Staal, Fleury
Kane, Toews
Doughty, Schenn (Richards)
Potentially Mackinnon, Landeskog, Makar, Byram

The only Cup winner to not have a super impactful player drafted by them in the top 5 since 2009 was Boston. (They had Kessel drafted fifth who was traded for Seguin though I think it's obvious they win without rookie Seguin.)

It may, usually does, take more than one bullet. If the Kings grabbed Hickey at 4 then decided to go for it, they don't get Doughty. The Hawks don't have Kane if they're happy building around Barker and signing a bunch of UFAs in 2004-2006. So the idea that the Flames (or any team) tanks and drafts top 2 this year then instantly becomes contender is not reasonable, but a real multi-year rebuild.

This argument gets trotted out enough. It bears repeating that you need to be consistently bad for years to get those types of players and the draft lottery has changed to avoid the No Good approach to building a team. Every team mentioned above gets those players before the draft lottery changes. NYR drafted first overall and there is discussion of him being traded. He isn’t an immediate franchise altering player. A high draft pick isn’t a guarantee of even an impact player and certainly not a guarantee of a franchise player.

As a fan, I prefer a team that consistently drafts well regardless of where their picks are and Flames have consistently done so for a few years now. We may have our next starting goalie from the last pick in the draft.

The crowd that thinks the team should burn the whole roster down isn’t wrong per se. I just think that it is over estimated how easy it is to draft and develop all these start players with high draft picks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OptimalTates]

Even Stanley Cup final losers.

Canadiens - Price (5), Conn Smythe if they win.
Dallas - Heiskanen (3), Conn Smythe if they win.
Boston - Like I said, envious team
Vegas - Unique situation
Nashville - Jones (4) traded for Johansen (4), Johansen was point-per-game player before he got injured against Anaheim and big reason why the Penguins didn't have much sweat repeating
San Jose - Marleau (2), Thornton for bag of pucks
Tampa - Stamkos (1), Hedman (2)

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

This argument gets trotted out enough. It bears repeating that you need to be consistently bad for years to get those types of players and the draft lottery has changed to avoid the No Good approach to building a team. Every team mentioned above gets those players before the draft lottery changes. NYR drafted first overall and there is discussion of him being traded. He isn’t an immediate franchise altering player. A high draft pick isn’t a guarantee of even an impact player and certainly not a guarantee of a franchise player.

Well it's been changed back a bit now with two lotteries, not three, and max ten increase - plus only allowed two wins in five years.

But winning a lottery doesn't guarantee you a Stanley Cup. No one said that. Picking high, even consistently, isn't even a guarantee to be good. Edmonton and Buffalo prove that.

But it's looking more and more that in order to win the Cup you need to pick high to get those franchise defining players. Need is an overstatement but its certainly the most utilized strategy, and a proper rebuild with multiple high picks is the most surefire way to build a contender. Hoping that someone will trade a top player like Thornton/Seguin/O'Reilly for a couple spare pucks and a hot dog seems to be not the greatest strategy.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

This argument gets trotted out enough. It bears repeating that you need to be consistently bad for years to get those types of players and the draft lottery has changed to avoid the No Good approach to building a team. Every team mentioned above gets those players before the draft lottery changes. NYR drafted first overall and there is discussion of him being traded. He isn’t an immediate franchise altering player. A high draft pick isn’t a guarantee of even an impact player and certainly not a guarantee of a franchise player.

As a fan, I prefer a team that consistently drafts well regardless of where their picks are and Flames have consistently done so for a few years now. We may have our next starting goalie from the last pick in the draft.

The crowd that thinks the team should burn the whole roster down isn’t wrong per se. I just think that it is over estimated how easy it is to draft and develop all these start players with high draft picks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Player development is much harder to prove but what’s the impact on a guy like Johnny when he first entered the league if the Flames traded a guy like Hudler because they wanted to lose more games? That early success helps make him the player he is today

Maybe Taylor Hall would be a superstar if he wasn’t rotting on a terrible team year after year. It’s got to be hard to work hard and improve when you get killed nightly and never play in big games

[Jiri Hrdina]

Johnny probably goes top 3 in a re-draft. So how does one account for that?

[mile]

Some insider talk about Gaudreau, nothing groundbreaking here

https://twitter.com/user/status/1537880259286118400

https://twitter.com/user/status/1537887931427196930

[ComixZone]

Time keeps on slipping slipping slipping...into the Johnnyless (?) future

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by mile

Some insider talk about Gaudreau, nothing groundbreaking here

https://twitter.com/user/status/1537880259286118400

https://twitter.com/user/status/1537887931427196930

Darren Dreger is about as reliable as Eklund.

[Roof-Daddy]

If he tests the market, we are boned IMO

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

If he tests the market, we are boned IMO

I feel like Philly is sitting there with a 7 year, $12M AAV offer. Sure, $12M is a lot today but in 2 years time? It'll be far less of a worry.

[ForeverFlameFan]

You can’t blame him for testing the market. For all we know someone swoops in and signs Johnny to a 12 x 7. I wouldn’t want to be the guy that signs that, we know how crazy GMs can get.

I think if we offer a reasonable 7 year deal (assuming the 8 year is off the table and he’s testing the market), then I think Johnny would be loyal enough to stay unless a different team offers a total of 10m in the whole deal.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

If he tests the market, we are boned IMO

If he isn’t signed by the FA deadline, chances are good people (me) might want to avoid FOI for a week lol.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by ForeverFlameFan

You can’t blame him for testing the market. For all we know someone swoops in and signs Johnny to a 12 x 7. I wouldn’t want to be the guy that signs that, we know how crazy GMs can get.

I think if we offer a reasonable 7 year deal (assuming the 8 year is off the table and he’s testing the market), then I think Johnny would be loyal enough to stay unless a different team offers a total of 10m in the whole deal.

I still believe it's far better to overpay for elite talent than it is any other level of talent.

Locking $12M into a top-line/top-pairing player is a lot easier to manage than it is to have $5M+ locked into bottom-six guys.

Pay and overpay for legit top end guys, get creative elsewhere. You can't win without top tier guys. We paid Jarome Iginla 17.95% of the Salary Cap in 2005/2006, paying Johnny Gaudreau 14-15% of the salary cap is a no brainer in my eyes - and if we won't, someone else will and we're left without our best player.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I feel like Philly is sitting there with a 7 year, $12M AAV offer. Sure, $12M is a lot today but in 2 years time? It'll be far less of a worry.

I have no doubt that the Flames will have the best $$$ offer at the end of the day, both total $ and AAV.

Won’t come down to money.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I still believe it's far better to overpay for elite talent than it is any other level of talent.

Locking $12M into a top-line/top-pairing player is a lot easier to manage than it is to have $5M+ locked into bottom-six guys.

Pay and overpay for legit top end guys, get creative elsewhere. You can't win without top tier guys. We paid Jarome Iginla 17.95% of the Salary Cap in 2005/2006, paying Johnny Gaudreau 14% of the salary cap is a no brainer in my eyes.

That’s a fair point. NYR isn’t crying about having Panarin on 11.5 and Zibanejad soon to be paid significantly more as well.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

I have no doubt that the Flames will have the best $$$ offer at the end of the day, both total $ and AAV.

Won’t come down to money.

I Agree.

I fully expect the Flames to offer max term and $90M+. If they don't they haven't done their job.

...if Johnny doesn't take that, then that's okay. Dude is just making a family/life decision and good on him.