Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by VilleN

It definitely won't be worth it for the whole contract - but that is pretty much the case with all long term UFA deals.

Yup, the question is how likely it will come back to bite us.

Kessel's retention is only now coming off TOR's books and hindered them a bit in their prime windows.

DAL - Oettinger, Heiskanen, Hintz, Robertson are a very nice young core four to build around. But they've got Benn and Seguin for 3 and 5 more years.

MIN - obviously a very different case, but Suter/Parise are biting them through the prime years of a lot of good players.


I think it's unlikely the Flames manage to contend with Johnny...the best we can hope for is probably a run like EDM just had. It's pretty hard to imagine CGY anywhere near these TBL/COL teams in the next couple years, and even the next tier of NYR/CAR/FLA/STL/etc seems unlikely. The best reason for hope is the relative weakness of the West, but it'll take a lot of luck to ever get past COL.

Sustained contention will almost certainly require guys like Wolf and Zary and a D-man to emerge as elite players, which probably means at least 3-4 years (think of how long TBL/COL took to go from great to exceptional). If we are so lucky for that to happen, then Johnny may well be a bit of an anchor by then. I'd rather have Lindholm and Mangi/Tkachuk as the older guys on long-term deals in that scenario.

I'd still try to sign him, but I don't think it's particularly dire if we don't.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Without Gaudreau, the hypothetically being discussed, it's not a top 5 team either.

That's pretty much the Flames M.O. over the last decade. Not embarrassing bad, but never a favourite.

The Avalanche finished bottom 3 in 2009 when there was a consensus top 3 (Tavares/Hedman then Duchene). Islanders won lottery and Avalanche got Duchene. Duchene later traded to Ottawa for 2018 or 2019 pick, Ottawa's choice. Ottawa finished second last but ended up losing the lottery, kept the pick thought and got B.Tkachuk. They then finished dead last in 2019 and Colorado/Ottawa lost all three lotteries and drafted Byram at fourth.

The Avalanche finished bottom two in 2011 when it was likely very slightly Nugent-Hopkins first, then Larsson/Landeskog/Huberdeau in that second tier. They got their pick of the litter of that second tier and grabbed Landeskog.

They finished second last in 2013 when MacKinnon and Jones draft turned into the big three with Drouin. In any case, finishing second last secured them one of the big 3 and the lottery favoured them and they got MacKinnon.

They finished last in 2017 and with the best worst luck in the world lost all three lottery drafts to pick fourth and get Makar.

The Lightning had a similar trajectory, finishing second last in 2008 but winning the Stamkos draft (though Doughty was a fine consolation prize for the last place Kings), and second last in 2009 and getting Hedman. They also finished bottom three in the 2013 draft getting the last big three in Drouin. They traded Drouin for Sergachev.

So by bottoming out those two teams have Makar (28:50), Hedman (24:24), Landeskog (23:02), Byram (22:37), Sergachev (22:07), Mackinnon (22:06) and Stamkos (17:09) to show for it. In brackets is their ice time in the first game of the finals. Six of the top eight players by ice time were acquired as a direct result of losing. And Stamkos with 106 regular points, 9 goals in 18 playoff games, isn't completely useless.

for every Avalanche and Lightning there are teams that have been "tanking" and getting top picks that still suck.
Its not as easy as some people make it out to be...there is a ton of luck involved.

anyway this is a convo for another day (hopefully not)...Flames need to sign Gaudreau, he outscored all those players mentioned. Guy is = to a top pick without all the tanking.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Colorado getting Makar was even luckier than Edmonton getting McDavid. All Edmonton had to do was win the lottery as there was zero chance anyone but McDavid was going first overall. Colorado had to lose the lottery and have the defenceman-equivalent of McDavid happen to be the best player available at #4... because, let's be honest, they would have taken one of the two Cs available (or even if they forced a D pick, would have taken Heiskanen over Makar) had they won the lottery.

Yeah, and there’s plenty of examples of 4OA picks being busts or mediocre players at best. Reinhart (though they turned him into Barzal LOL), Larsson, etc

[The Yen Man]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yeah, and there’s plenty of examples of 4OA picks being busts or mediocre players at best. Reinhart (though they turned him into Barzal LOL), Larsson, etc

Bennett . Looking back, if only Oilers went consensus and took Bennett and we landed Pissy. Him and Johnny could have been magic together.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

I get the sense that Tkachuck wants to the Austin Mathews Special, where we can hit free agency again before he is 30. I wouldn't be surprised if his ask were 11M for 5 years.

I wouldn't characterize it as the Matthews special. Matthews was closer to the likes of even Gaudreau's past contract as they both signed a contract that took up one year of UFA. But I think you could be right about the length. It puts Tkachuk in a prime position to cash in on one more huge contract at 29. Favourable position by itself.

But with CBA MOU there's an artificial lower cap until the player debt through escrow is paid off.

2020/21:
• Upper Limit = $81.5 Million
• Midpoint = $70.9 Million
• Lower Limit = $60.2 Million

Thereafter (subject to the provisions above regarding the
Extension Year):
• Upper Limit will remain at $81.5 Million until Preliminary
HRR for the just completed League Year surpasses $3.3
Billion.
• For any League Year where Preliminary HRR is between
$3.3 Billion and $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit for the
following League Year shall be between $81.5 Million and
$82.5 Million on a pro rata basis (e.g., if Preliminary HRR
is $4.05 Billion, the Upper Limit will be $82 Million).
• Once Preliminary HRR for the immediately preceding
League Year surpasses $4.8 Billion, the Upper Limit will
increase by $1 Million per League Year until the Escrow
Balance is paid off.
• The parties can agree to increase the Upper Limit in
excess of $1 Million in order to allow for a smoother
transition into the ‘Lag’ formula.

Bettman is reporting 5.2B, which is why the cap is 82.5M next year already (over 4.8B). The odds of the cap only going up 1M each year is small I think at this point, but it's still a lower cap then it should be until the escrow balance is paid off and that's probably a couple years still from now. After that the artifical cap is lifted and a true cap ceiling based on 50/50 revenue kicks in; could be a pretty big jump. Players in that UFA zone when that escrow is paid off and dumb GMs have a bunch of extra cap to spend will be making big bucks. Let's say 4 years for escrow repayment? Players signing 6-8 year contracts? I'm guessing a lot of buyouts in 2030 lol.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

for every Avalanche and Lightning there are teams that have been "tanking" and getting top picks that still suck.
Its not as easy as some people make it out to be...there is a ton of luck involved.

anyway this is a convo for another day (hopefully not)...Flames need to sign Gaudreau, he outscored all those players mentioned. Guy is = to a top pick without all the tanking.

I agree with this and I’m not a fan of ripping a good team apart to make a run at first overall

But if the situation presents itself it’s the only option. The Flames lose Gaudreau and Tkachuk signs 1 year deal we can’t be trading Tkachuk for players and sign UFAs. We need to go full rebuild for at least 2 years

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

for every Avalanche and Lightning there are teams that have been "tanking" and getting top picks that still suck.
Its not as easy as some people make it out to be...there is a ton of luck involved..

Yes, but how many teams that haven't sucked in the cap era have won the Cup? Boston? Detroit pre-Cup but they also willing to bottom out now.

If you want to put a team that likely makes or at least fights for the playoffs most years, but outside of some insane Cinderalla run or even better luck than winning the draft lottery, it's fine staying mediocre and hoping. The Minnesota/Calgary type strategy. But if you want to win the Cup, how haven't we learned from at least Crosby and the Penguins in 2009?

[Macho0978]

We also can’t be giving Gaudreau a blank cheque either. He’s great but not good enough to be getting $11 mil a year

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

Bennett . Looking back, if only Oilers went consensus and took Bennett and we landed Pissy. Him and Johnny could have been magic together.

Wait a minute, maybe that's WHY he's so pissy...

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Yes, but how many teams that haven't sucked in the cap era have won the Cup? Boston?

well its 17 years...who hasn't sucked?

Tkachuk, Lindholm and Monahan are relatively high picks...Tkachuk and Lindholm go higher in a redraft. Gaudreau is a top 3 pick talent.
Bennet was a bust with Calgary but he was ranked #1 by central scouting

Flames have a lot of top 6 picks on their roster right now plus Gaudreau...I don't think they have a talent issue, this season they had a peaking at the right time and injury on D issue.

Losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk obviously changes things

[GioforPM]

Bennett was ranked 1 at an earlier point, but by the time of the draft the top 4 picks went generally in order of their ranking at that point in time. Give or take Ekblad v Reinhart which was an apples to oranges thing (D v C).

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by dino7c

well its 17 years...who hasn't sucked?

Tkachuk, Lindholm and Monahan are relatively high picks...Tkachuk and Lindholm go higher in a redraft. Gaudreau is a top 3 pick talent.
Bennet was a bust with Calgary but he was ranked #1 by central scouting

Flames have a lot of top 6 picks on their roster right now plus Gaudreau...I don't think they have a talent issue, this season they had a peaking at the right time and injury on D issue.

Losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk obviously changes things

My take on the BoA is that, while we have more talent and depth than Edm, they have two of the one thing we don't have: a player that can win a game by himself. Would it have been more interesting with a healthy Tanev? Yes, but McDavid and Draisaitl have both walked all over us since they came into the league.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Well, you aren't right about Stone at all. And having too much talent to keep is a luxury, not a problem - see Tampa Bay. It's all beside the point anyways, my point is Canadian teams are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to signing and retaining players. I would argue it is the entire reason a Canadian team hasn't lifted the cup in nearly 30 years.

Really? We've established how rare it is for huge name guys to move as UFAs, and TOR got one of those big ~4 (Tavares/Panarin/Bobrovsky/Pietrangelo). It's also been established that paying your best players at UFA rates is unlikely to lead to cups (at least since the 8 yr limit).

Who have CAD teams struggled to retain? Karlsson and Stone - because OTT is/was a clown show. Dubas failing at RFA negotiations is the only other thing I can think of.

Originally Posted by FanIn80

OK, this season has clouded my perception of his injury history... but is $9.5M good value for a PPG advanced stats darling? He's not even a center. He's also 30 years old, just had lower back surgery and still represents five more years of cap hit at that $9.5M. Should we offer Lindholm (who will be a 30 year-old center) $9.5M for his next contract?

(actually I could realistically see Lindholm getting $8-9M offers, but I would also argue that Lindholm is more valuable than Stone)

Anyway, fair point... I did think he was more injury-prone than he is.

Yes and yes.

Stone is the best 2-way winger since Hossa. He signed this deal right around the time he turned 27. He certainly wasn't an ironman in OTT, but he wasn't exactly injury-prone either - gp: 80 75 71 58 77. It may take until next spring for him to

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Yes, but how many teams that haven't sucked in the cap era have won the Cup? Boston? Detroit pre-Cup but they also willing to bottom out now.

If you want to put a team that likely makes or at least fights for the playoffs most years, but outside of some insane Cinderalla run or even better luck than winning the draft lottery, it's fine staying mediocre and hoping. The Minnesota/Calgary type strategy. But if you want to win the Cup, how haven't we learned from at least Crosby and the Penguins in 2009?

St. Louis did suck enough to pick high in 2006 and 2008. But those picks weren’t really the keystone to their cup win. Pietrangelo was very good, but it was a team effort more and guys like ROR, Billington, Tarasenko all participating.

[theslymonkey]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Bennett was ranked 1 at an earlier point, but by the time of the draft the top 4 picks went generally in order of their ranking at that point in time. Give or take Ekblad v Reinhart which was an apples to oranges thing (D v C).

I don't think so.

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-css-201...kings/c-712854

*Clarify*
Maybe TSN or SNET had them ranked differently, but CSS final rankings had Bennett at #1.

[bubbsy]

Disclaimer : I'm 100% a scorched earth rebuild guy.

That being said, how interesting is it that the flames enjoyed the kind of year they had without the highest drafted centers by the franchise, playing basically no part in it (monahan, Bennett). Gaudreau becoming a bona fide top 10 forward in the league has been a blessing for the flames. Otherwise, this entire rebuild would have been an epic waste of almost a decade.

[OptimalTates]

Since the 2003 season the teams to not have finished bottom 3 in a year I believe are:

Boston
Calgary
Dallas
Minnesota
Nashville
New York Rangers
San Jose

Outside of Boston, that doesn't look like exactly the crème de la crème of hockey teams.

Boston's an outlier, Bergeron, Krejci, Marchand, and Pastarnak were just amazing pick ups for when they went. UFA finds like Thomas, just a solid put together team. Will see how they fair with Krejci gone, Bergeron thinking about retirement etc. but certainly a great team in the post cap era.

The Stars with that post-apex Modano (1st overall) era was mediocre at best (but meh at worst), and they would win only 1 playoff in a decade between 2009-2018. They would make the Stanley Cup finals in 2020 but their best player was the 3rd overall they won with a 6.4% lottery ball. Again, this theory of picking high being good is popping back up.

Since the lockout the Wild have a grand total of 2 wins in the second round of the playoffs. Have been in the playoffs 9 of the last 10 seasons, but no one expects them to win or even make the conference finals.

Nashville has missed the playoffs only 3 times since the lockout. Consistently in it but you forget that because they rarely make any noise. They did go on a Cinderalla run in 2017 after finishing 8th in the West for that last playoff spot.

Rangers have been a good team, had some runs including losing to the Kings for the Cup, but it's almost not as good as it should be. Players like Fox (and Erixon) forcing their way there, college players like Strome picking them, all the UFAs wanting to sign there, and now they won two lotteries to draft 2nd and 1st. Richards, Redden, Shatternkirk, lots of bad UFA signings, though at the time they were the most sought after players available but even Gomez got them McDonaugh. Gaborik got them Brassard which got them Zibanejad. And now they have Panarin.

San Jose solid team for a long time, just couldn't get over that hump. But their best teams, the President Trophy winning 2009 type ones, were still based around two players. Marleau who they drafted 2nd overall because they sucked in 1997 and Thornton who went first that year who they got for peanuts in one of the most lopsided trades in NHL history.

Sure none of these teams are the Buffalo Sabres, Edmonton Oilers or Arizona Coyotes. But if you aren't willing to have a season or two of losing, it seems like your shot of doing anything relies on winning the draft lottery (easier when you suck), going on a Cinderella run (not exactly something to bank on), hope that some team decides to trade you a first line center for a couple spare parts or be a world class city that attracts all the UFAs.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

St. Louis did suck enough to pick high in 2006 and 2008. But those picks weren’t really the keystone to their cup win. Pietrangelo was very good, but it was a team effort more and guys like ROR, Billington, Tarasenko all participating.

While a lot of other moving parts, Johnson was traded for Shatternkirk who was traded to Washington for a 1st, that 1st was a core piece to acquire Schenn. Not completely a make or break it player but not nothing.

But Pietrangelo I strongly disagree with. O'Reilly was the obvious Conn Smythe trophy winner but Pietrangelo was right there with Binnington and certainly over Tarasenko. Dude was an absolute beast against the Bruins. Playing 27 minutes a night, 6 points in 7 games, +5 in the series. 2 points, +3 in game seven alone. Needed all three of O'Reilly, Binnington and Pietrangelo.

And O'Reilly falls into the hoping that a team trades a number 1 center to you for spare parts, the old Seguin and Thornton strategy. But it's not one I would bank on.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

While a lot of other moving parts, Johnson was traded for Shatternkirk who was traded to Washington for a 1st, that 1st was a core piece to acquire Schenn. Not completely a make or break it player but not nothing.

But Pietrangelo I strongly disagree with. O'Reilly was the obvious Conn Smythe trophy winner but Pietrangelo was right there with Binnington and certainly over Tarasenko. Dude was an absolute beast against the Bruins. Playing 27 minutes a night, 6 points in 7 games, +5 in the series. 2 points, +3 in game seven alone. Needed all three of O'Reilly, Binnington and Pietrangelo.

And O'Reilly falls into the hoping that a team trades a number 1 center to you for spare parts, the old Seguin and Thornton strategy. But it's not one I would bank on.

But you would bank on a tank and hoping you get a high pick AND during a year with a game changing player?

There is no sure thing strategy and no one way to build a contender.

Yes high picks are certainly important and I don't disagree with that, but you can also look at the high number of failed re-builds, even when the team did suck for a while, to see why re-builds often don't translate into contending teams.

Ottawa's current re-build is going to fail for this reason. They don't have any truly elite talent. Just a lot of good parts. So should they start over?

I'm someone who would enjoy a re-build, but I'm also not banging my head against the wall because I can look at this team and see where they are and understand that any notion of stripping it down, at this stage, is just completely imaginary.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Without Gaudreau they are a non playoff team....

I am not convinced of this, especially since Gaudreau's money will have to go to someone else.


Sent from my SM-G986W using Tapatalk