Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[madmike]

What scares me most is JG not signing and Tkachuk deciding he’d rather play somewhere else because the Flames aren’t Cup contenders. Then we’re basically back to having to do a near complete rebuild. I know that’s a worst-case scenario, but the more time goes by without a JG signing, the more I think about it.

[OptimalTates]

From the 2013 lockout with a cap of 60M to 2019 with a cap of 79.5M pre-COVID, the increase was roughly 4-5% per year. It's not linear, it's not just based off of normal inflation obviously and things like the new TV deals or even which teams make the playoffs will have an effect but the big ones are the new teams. So the Kraken's inaugural season being during COVID with the "artificial" cap creates some pretty big uncertainty. Probably less so for NHL GM/owners and smart people, but if we look at a 4.5% increase since 2013 compared to the actual cap the numbers are:

2013- 60.0 - 60.0
2014- 64.3 - 62.7
2015- 69.0 - 65.2
2016- 71.4 - 68.5
2017- 73.0 - 71.6
2018- 75.0 - 74.7
2019- 79.5 - 78.1
2020- 81.5 - 81.6
2021- 81.5 - 85.3
2022- 81.5 - 89.2
2023- 82.5 - 93.2
2024- ??.? - 97.3
2025- ??.? - 101.8

Huge limitations and you can already see some pretty big discrepancy from the static 4.5% and real values (2015 for example).

This year was the highest revenue for the NHL. Makes sense when it's the first year it has 32 teams, would be a disaster if it wasn't.

But Calgary's the divisional leader with a super dynamic fun player anchoring the best line in the league and finishing second in the scoring race, Edmonton has a generational talent that fans of other teams flock to see and a duo that they believe rivals any since Crosby and Malkin, Toronto has a player scoring an unofficial 50 in 50 for the first time in a generation, Montreal's fresh off a Stanley Cup finals loss. Any other year they are all sellouts. But because of some stupid pangolin having sex with a bat or something, their home percentage attendance was abysmal; Calgary (74.1%), Edmonton (80.1%), Toronto (78.7%) and Montreal (72.8%). And with some weird flavour of the week restrictions, some games you couldn't even really drink. Less spending money for people recovering from CERB for novelties like merchandise. Even border issues hurting Detroit and particular Buffalo.

But once COVID deficit and ripple effects rights itself, would there be a team thinking that a 100M cap in a couple years is reasonable? Do the Yotes last in Arizona for many more seasons or in 4 or 5 years are they playing in Houston and actually bringing in some of that revenue? Do Flames get a new arena increasing revenue from the now-defunct press-level season ticket prices?

At first I thought Gaudreau at 10M+ for 8 years wouldn't be great for the Flames in the long run (even with Tkachuk signed too). One year with Lucic/Monahan making too much and only two more years of some solid contracts like Tanev, Hanifin, Dube and especially Lindholm, more or less limited their chances to that 2023-2024 season. After 2024 without any particular good contracts on the book, Markstrom on the wrong side of 35, and no real blue chip prospects to supplement the leaving/aging players, I thought a high priced 31 year old Gaudreau without any foreseeable cheap assets to build around would be problematic.

But now I think if you can lock in Gaudreau for 8 years now at any form of reasonable contract that it might be worth the risk. 5 years from now if the Flames suck but the cap has sky rocketed, maybe players like Matthew and Draisaitl are on 15M+ contracts and Gaudreau is still a very valuable trade piece.

[OptimalTates]

But man Makar making 9M in 2027? Might as well pencil them in for another Cup run that year. It has to rival MacKinnon making 6.3M this year, if not somehow dwarves it.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by madmike

What scares me most is JG not signing and Tkachuk deciding he’d rather play somewhere else because the Flames aren’t Cup contenders. Then we’re basically back to having to do a near complete rebuild. I know that’s a worst-case scenario, but the more time goes by without a JG signing, the more I think about it.

Is it?

Michkov and Bedard up for grabs this year. If ever a year to rebuild this is the year. Tkachuk traded for futures to a team he will sign with, Lindholm on one of the most sought out contracts in the league, maybe even a spot for Markstrom while hoping Wolf is the goalie of the future. Could be a super quick rebuild.

Feel like Gaudreau leaving and Tkachuk sticking around is worst case scenario unless they do get another prime UFA like Forsberg. Otherwise the team looks too good to tank, not good enough to make a peep.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by madmike

What scares me most is JG not signing and Tkachuk deciding he’d rather play somewhere else because the Flames aren’t Cup contenders. Then we’re basically back to having to do a near complete rebuild. I know that’s a worst-case scenario, but the more time goes by without a JG signing, the more I think about it.

My order of "highest near terms entertainment value options"
1. Sign both (or if Gaudreau doesn't sign, get Forsberg and Gudbranson)
2. Trade Mang & Kyllington for Chychurn
3. Ride out this year
4. Go all in 2023/24 when you have Monahan and Lucic off the books and no burden. 1-2 shots, no key injuries...
5. By 2026 start a very slow and drawn out playoff bubble (9-12) run. Rebuild starting in 2028.


My highest likelihood of Cup in the next decade options:
1. Gaudreau walks
2. Trade Chucky to Ottawa for some version of Batherson and Chabot (or a similar high end package with more control and some early 2023 1sts)
3. Sign Mangiapane long term
4. Pickup some dead weight with 2023 1sts
5. Tank and win the lottery
6. Extend or hire another Sutter
7. Start taking runs in 2024-2030
8. Get lucky on some late round 2020-2024 picks.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Is it?

Michkov and Bedard up for grabs this year. If ever a year to rebuild this is the year. Tkachuk traded for futures to a team he will sign with, Lindholm on one of the most sought out contracts in the league, maybe even a spot for Markstrom while hoping Wolf is the goalie of the future. Could be a super quick rebuild.

Feel like Gaudreau leaving and Tkachuk sticking around is worst case scenario unless they do get another prime UFA like Forsberg. Otherwise the team looks too good to tank, not good enough to make a peep.

Being dead last is hard enough...then the 18% chance of drafting first overall

Solid plan

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Would you have then wanted to trade for Bear?

I never thought about it before, but now that you mention it, yes. That would have been necessary. I would also get Wacey Rabbit out of retirement and sign our very own Troutman to a contact just to round out the team.

This is why I would be a terrible GM. The team would be filled with weird names and odd connections. Just like if I was a GM for the Devils back when Satan was playing, I would have moved heaven and hell to get him on the team. Such a wasted opportunity.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by madmike

What scares me most is JG not signing and Tkachuk deciding he’d rather play somewhere else because the Flames aren’t Cup contenders. Then we’re basically back to having to do a near complete rebuild. I know that’s a worst-case scenario, but the more time goes by without a JG signing, the more I think about it.

To be crystal clear, I'd rather have both these guys stay in Calgary long term as I think they're both legit stars in the league and they're tough to get. Both are proven in their situations with this team and you just never know how an acquisition will turn out.

However, I have a lot of faith in Treliving's abilities in trades when I look back at his history as a whole and include the confirmed deals that fell through (see: Kadri). Personally, I feel he wins deals more than he loses and if the Flames were to lose both Tkachuk and Johnny, I feel Tre would end up filling those roster holes nicely with all of that cap space.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I don't care what you call it or how long it's been allowed, it's idiotic.

Without it, a claim by the players association under the US federal anti-trust legislation is more likely to be successful. Players would have a more difficult argument that they are bound to the same team when they are presented with an initial out.

Its why UFA even exists in the NHL and all sports for that matter. Basically an agreed settlement to avoid an anti-trust challenge.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Being dead last is hard enough...then the 18% chance of drafting first overall

Solid plan

Hoping for a top two pick does seem like a solid plan. Turn on the TV tonight and you'll be able to watch Stamkos and Hedman vs MacKinnon and Landeskog.

Oh, but you're right that even if you finish last you might not get the top pick. Colorado finished dead last in 2017. 48 points compared to second place Canucks 69 points. A complete disaster of a year made worse when they lost all 3 lottery drafts and had to pick fourth overall and probably picked some bust.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by tkflames

Trade Chucky to Ottawa for some version of Batherson and Chabot (or a similar high end package with more control and some early 2023 1sts)

One year of Chucky worth Batherson and Chabot? I'd be shocked if Ottawa would part with just Chabot for him.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Being dead last is hard enough...then the 18% chance of drafting first overall

Solid plan

Some are suggesting that 3 or 4 guys in 2023 would go ahead of Wright first overall in 2022. If there is a draft to target getting a high pick it’s the 2023 draft

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Some are suggesting that 3 or 4 guys in 2023 would go ahead of Wright first overall in 2022. If there is a draft to target getting a high pick it’s the 2023 draft

there are also a lot of REALLY bad teams in this league...Sutter is the coach, this isn't a bottom 5 team

[TheIronMaiden]

I get the sense that Tkachuck wants to the Austin Mathews Special, where we can hit free agency again before he is 30. I wouldn't be surprised if his ask were 11M for 5 years.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Honestly, the main reason why the Fox thing bothers me is that I think it would have been cool to have a Fox and Wolf on the team one day. Dumb reason, I know.

Would be even better on the Coyotes

Originally Posted by The Yen Man

If I'm Tkatchuk, and looking to cash in on another longterm contract in a few years, the max I'd sign for is 3 years. There's no way I'd sign for any longer than that, and then really cash in on a 7 or 8 year deal when I'm 27/28. That's the way the maximize it. In 3 years, HRR will be up, cap will be up, and $9M a year today might be the equivalent to $10M in a couple years. Really, he timed it perfectly IMO.

This is, of course, assuming he's still performing at a high level in the next 3 or 4 years. I think playing with Johnny, he'll continue to do so.

Tkachuk is one of the only guys where this might actually make sense since his family already has generational wealth. It might also be the best thing for his trade value.

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I'm perfectly OK with missing out on Stone. It seems to me like he's gone the way of Erik Karlson since signing in LV.

PPG player who missed a total of ~5 games in the 2 seasons previous to this one?

Since joining SJ, Karlsson missed 29, 14, 4*, 32. *56 game season - who knows how many he'd have played over 82.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by dino7c

there are also a lot of REALLY bad teams in this league...Sutter is the coach, this isn't a bottom 5 team

Without Gaudreau they are a non playoff team.

If Tkachuk doesn’t want to stay after losing Gaudreau

Flames are a really bad team now

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Hoping for a top two pick does seem like a solid plan. Turn on the TV tonight and you'll be able to watch Stamkos and Hedman vs MacKinnon and Landeskog.

Oh, but you're right that even if you finish last you might not get the top pick. Colorado finished dead last in 2017. 48 points compared to second place Canucks 69 points. A complete disaster of a year made worse when they lost all 3 lottery drafts and had to pick fourth overall and probably picked some bust.

Colorado getting Makar was even luckier than Edmonton getting McDavid. All Edmonton had to do was win the lottery as there was zero chance anyone but McDavid was going first overall. Colorado had to lose the lottery and have the defenceman-equivalent of McDavid happen to be the best player available at #4... because, let's be honest, they would have taken one of the two Cs available (or even if they forced a D pick, would have taken Heiskanen over Makar) had they won the lottery.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I'm perfectly OK with missing out on Stone. It seems to me like he's gone the way of Erik Karlson since signing in LV.

Would have loved to get Kadri and keep Fox, but we'd have less cap space today for re-signing Johnny, Tkachuk and Mangiapane - and we'd also have to come up with 10M for Fox next season.

Well, you aren't right about Stone at all. And having too much talent to keep is a luxury, not a problem - see Tampa Bay. It's all beside the point anyways, my point is Canadian teams are at a significant disadvantage when it comes to signing and retaining players. I would argue it is the entire reason a Canadian team hasn't lifted the cup in nearly 30 years.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

there are also a lot of REALLY bad teams in this league...Sutter is the coach, this isn't a bottom 5 team

Without Gaudreau, the hypothetically being discussed, it's not a top 5 team either.

That's pretty much the Flames M.O. over the last decade. Not embarrassing bad, but never a favourite.

The Avalanche finished bottom 3 in 2009 when there was a consensus top 3 (Tavares/Hedman then Duchene). Islanders won lottery and Avalanche got Duchene. Duchene later traded to Ottawa for 2018 or 2019 pick, Ottawa's choice. Ottawa finished second last but ended up losing the lottery, kept the pick thought and got B.Tkachuk. They then finished dead last in 2019 and Colorado/Ottawa lost all three lotteries and drafted Byram at fourth.

The Avalanche finished bottom two in 2011 when it was likely very slightly Nugent-Hopkins first, then Larsson/Landeskog/Huberdeau in that second tier. They got their pick of the litter of that second tier and grabbed Landeskog.

They finished second last in 2013 when MacKinnon and Jones draft turned into the big three with Drouin. In any case, finishing second last secured them one of the big 3 and the lottery favoured them and they got MacKinnon.

They finished last in 2017 and with the best worst luck in the world lost all three lottery drafts to pick fourth and get Makar.

The Lightning had a similar trajectory, finishing second last in 2008 but winning the Stamkos draft (though Doughty was a fine consolation prize for the last place Kings), and second last in 2009 and getting Hedman. They also finished bottom three in the 2013 draft getting the last big three in Drouin. They traded Drouin for Sergachev.

So by bottoming out those two teams have Makar (28:50), Hedman (24:24), Landeskog (23:02), Byram (22:37), Sergachev (22:07), Mackinnon (22:06) and Stamkos (17:09) to show for it. In brackets is their ice time in the first game of the finals. Six of the top eight players by ice time were acquired as a direct result of losing. And Stamkos with 106 regular points, 9 goals in 18 playoff games, isn't completely useless.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

PPG player who missed a total of ~5 games in the 2 seasons previous to this one?

OK, this season has clouded my perception of his injury history... but is $9.5M good value for a PPG advanced stats darling? He's not even a center. He's also 30 years old, just had lower back surgery and still represents five more years of cap hit at that $9.5M. Should we offer Lindholm (who will be a 30 year-old center) $9.5M for five years (matching Stone's remainder) for his next contract?

(actually I could realistically see Lindholm getting $8-9M offers, but I would also argue that Lindholm is more valuable than Stone)

Anyway, fair point... I did think he was more injury-prone than he is.