Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

A 7 year deal probably doesn't need to match/beat an 8 year deal, but at least be within 3-5M of the total value. Hard to put odds on it with so much uncertainty 7 years down the road, but I'd say 33% chance he could sign for 5M+, 33% chance he can sign for ~$2-3M, and 33% chance he's done playing entirely one way or another.

Hang on, this is where I get caught up. Again, why would he just walk away or “give up” on $3-5MM?

Would you? I don’t care how rich you are, people don’t just look the other way from that amount of money.

Murray Edwards requires his approval over an extremely low expense threshold at his company, as an example. Would Murray just go “meh” over $3-5MM? And if so, why doesn’t he just offer it to Gaudreau then and settle it?

[djsFlames]

Need to extend Johnny and work on getting him the kind of supporting cast he can succeed with.

Tkachuk let him and the team down and Lindy dropped off for stretches as well, but I'm going to give him a pass.

Tkachuk has a lot of value right now though because of his regular season so maybe extend him for a shorter term deal and flip him for good young talent.

I would aim at a retool around Johnny.

Maybe give it one more go with the current core under Sutter in his final year, but retool after that for sure. Bring in Pelletier, Zary, Wolf and Coronato. And Kerins in a couple seasons.

[Mr.Coffee]

Nm

[flylock shox]

If I were in Johnny's shoes, salary would really be a secondary consideration in all of this.


He's going to be thirty soon, married, and with a new baby. His priorities today are going to be different from what they were when he signed his last contract, with much more responsibility at home, and a need for closer connections to family (both his and his wife's).



Money is always a factor, but he'll get paid wherever he goes, and his endorsement deal potential out East would no doubt make up for any shortfall in going from an 8 to 7 year contract. Not to mention the fact this may not be the sunset contract of his career.



Winning may be a factor, but his chances of doing so with a team out East are likely as good as doing it with the Flames (after all, how good are the Flames without him, really?).



Friendships may be a factor, but the truth of it is that friendships on NHL teams are fleeting - players can always be traded away or, in the possible case of his likely best friend in Calgary, put on LTIR or ultimately bought out. Meanwhile the most enduring friendships in his life are likely from his time growing up or at college.



Legacy? I suppose that could be a factor, but the truth of it is that his legacy is really what he accomplishes as an NHL player - not as a Flame. The latter is only relevant to how he's perceived in Calgary, which means little if he doesn't plan on spending a good chunk of the rest of his life there.


It's a big decision for him. A tough one too, if he's loyal to the team that drafted him. It may be that testing the UFA market is actually what he needs to make a decision, i.e., actually realizing his options and having to actually make a call with all the cards on the table.



I think at this stage his main consideration will be where he wants to put down roots for the rest of his life and raise a kid or two. Hard to know if his roots in Calgary have grown deep enough to hold him here - he may not know that himself.


All that to say, I'm not optimistic we see him back with the Flames, but it's impossible to know where he sees his own future. I just don't think money is going to be the number 1 factor in the end.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The Flames are about 3 weeks away from losing their best player and receiving no value for it.

I think actually to be honest people have been remarkably calm up to this point. There actually does come a time to panic, believe it or not.

No point in panicking now as I felt something needed to be done last offseason one way or another. I always felt if it got to this point it was not going to be good for the Flames so I enjoyed this season as if it was going to be Gaudreau's last with the Flames and am at peace with what happens. I hope Treliving can get it done but the Gaudreau's hold all the cards now for the first time and can do whatever they want. If he gets to free agency I think some here are going to be surprised by the offers and how high they are for his services.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The Flames are about 3 weeks away from losing their best player and receiving no value for it.

I think actually to be honest people have been remarkably calm up to this point. There actually does come a time to panic, believe it or not.

Lol thanks Nostradamus... Also, when it comes to watching sports, if you find yourself in a panic over something you may want to re-assess your priorities.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Put yourself in Johnny's shoes. Like honestly sit there and try to envision it.

What would you do?

Personally, I'd want to see at least $10.5MM over 8 meaning $84MM or I'm going to free agency. I think GioforPM has it correct on the numbers but I'm not losing multiple millions of dollars to play in Calgary no matter how many times The Cobra or anybody else wants you to believe this "isn't over money".

Yes, it is.

I can't tell if you are agreeing with me or disagreeing with me. The Flames will offer him the biggest contract because of that 8th year. If he signs with another team, then it likely means he values geography more than an extra $5-10 million. I think the Flames would pay him anything under 12M/year. Let's say it lands at 10.5M x 8 = 84M. For another team to match that value they'd have to pay him 12M/year - I don't see a lot of teams offering him that kind of money. If the Flames agreed to pay him 11.5Mx8= 92M - for another team to match that they'd have to take a cap hit of over 13M AAV. Not happening.

I guess I am unclear on what you are saying in the above? You think Johnny will leave the Flames over money? If it's only about money, Johnny will be a Flame.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

I think at this stage his main consideration will be where he wants to put down roots for the rest of his life and raise a kid or two. Hard to know if his roots in Calgary have grown deep enough to hold him here - he may not know that himself..

The rest of his life, lol? At most it's only gonna be 8 more years in Calgary. Dude will only be 36 by the time the contract ends, which is still very young. He'll have plenty of lifespan left to go and move his family back east or wherever they want to go. Putting down roots is something that players do after retirement.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by dammage79

...Then you have to be weary of the over pay reaction to keep chucky or overpaying Mangiapane . Who is going to be a real tough nugget in negotiations this time around.

"Wary." You have to be wary.


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[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

"Wary." You have to be wary.


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He might well be weary too.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

He perhaps wouldn’t have signed if he is still considering if he wants to stay or go.

I believe if he chooses to go it won’t be because the Flames did not offer enough.

I don't believe this is about him choosing whether to stay or go at this point. I think this is more about just seeing what is out there, and making a decision based on that.

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[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

Need to extend Johnny and work on getting him the kind of supporting cast he can succeed with.

Tkachuk let him and the team down and Lindy dropped off for stretches as well, but I'm going to give him a pass.

Tkachuk has a lot of value right now though because of his regular season so maybe extend him for a shorter term deal and flip him for good young talent.

I would aim at a retool around Johnny.

Maybe give it one more go with the current core under Sutter in his final year, but retool after that for sure. Bring in Pelletier, Zary, Wolf and Coronato. And Kerins in a couple seasons.

I don’t think the Flames should be looking for a seismic shift in the team after winning the division and winning a round of the playoffs. They trade Tkachuk only if he is unwilling to sign multi year deal with the club. Ideally Chucky is still the future captain of this team.

I think ideally the top line is who they build around. Like the 2019 year I do not see major changes to the roster other than moving money out to accommodate the big extensions which opens the door for Stockton’s finest to get a shot with the big club.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't believe this is about him choosing whether to stay or go at this point. I think this is more about just seeing what is out there, and making a decision based on that.

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This is possibly what it's come down to. They have the Flames offer and it's probably fair but they are this close so they may as well see what opportunities are available and how much money. That scenario likely presents a problem for the Flames as they likely would need to move to plan B quickly.

[Macman]

I think I mentioned earlier in this thread about Pittsburg being a potential team interested in signing Gaudreau, they do have Letang and Malkin as UFAs now as well as a couple others so they could have the cap space available. With Brian Burke there now too so who knows.

Who would be some of the other teams that have the cap space and where Gaudreau wanted to go and would they be competitive even.

The Flames are the front runners for sure taking everything into consideration as far as where will Johnny sign.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't believe this is about him choosing whether to stay or go at this point. I think this is more about just seeing what is out there, and making a decision based on that.

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You could well be right, but I think Johnny knows he'll get a huge offer whether he stays or he goes.

Now, if Calgary won't budge from, say $9.5M, he might otherwise go as a matter of principle. I just don't think that Calgary would do that.

I guess time will eventually tell.

[activeStick]

An extra year at +10M is not something any player sees as nothing lol.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't believe this is about him choosing whether to stay or go at this point. I think this is more about just seeing what is out there, and making a decision based on that.

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Risky, since he automatically gives up the likely highest offer by waiting until UFA day. The Flames will no longer be able to give him 8 years. Even if he gets a hefty 11x7 from someone, it’s 7 million less than a 10.5x8 Flames offer. That’s a lot of cheese to miss out on. And his agent has a vested interest in that difference and will give him advice accordingly.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Risky, since he automatically gives up the likely highest offer by waiting until UFA day. The Flames will no longer be able to give him 8 years. Even if he gets a hefty 11x7 from someone, it’s 7 million less than a 10.5x8 Flames offer. That’s a lot of cheese to miss out on. And his agent has a vested interest in that difference and will give him advice accordingly.

Tampering absolutely happens and typically around the draft until Free Agency. Players with leverage seemingly have used it in the past. Stamkos did it when there was an interview period but Landeskog did it last year.

Johnny will have a very good idea of who wants him and the money they are willing to spend prior to free agency opening.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

A 7 year deal probably doesn't need to match/beat an 8 year deal, but at least be within 3-5M of the total value. Hard to put odds on it with so much uncertainty 7 years down the road, but I'd say 33% chance he could sign for 5M+, 33% chance he can sign for ~$2-3M, and 33% chance he's done playing entirely one way or another.

So the bigger question at that point comes to contract structure/signing bonuses. If a 7x11M has $70M in signing bonuses and the 8x$10M only has $40- $50M (especially if they drop off at the end) then the risk vs. reward equation changes substantially, and the 7 year offer might be more attractive despite the lower total value.

Of course SB's mostly guard against buyouts and work stoppages, whereas the bigger total value would be better in case of LTIRetirement.

Ovechkin, Pavelski, Kovalchuk, Fleury, Thornton, Marleau, Chara, Koivu, Markov, Goligoski, Gonchar, Datsyuk, Iginla, Rinne, etc. have all signed 5M+ contracts after age 34. It's definitely not something to bank on, but he could come out further ahead after leaving a few million on the table with a 7 year deal. It's noteworthy that most of the wingers on that list are goalscorers moreso than playmakers, though.

He’d need a 7m contract in the year after an 11x7 just to match a 10.5x8. You listed a few guys who signed $5Mplus contacts at that age. I could list a lot more very good players who didn’t. Perry signed for less, so did Carter, Getzlaf, Stastny etc. Plus, he can do the same after a guaranteed 8 years, if he wants.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Tampering absolutely happens and typically around the draft until Free Agency. Players with leverage seemingly have used it in the past. Stamkos did it when there was an interview period but Landeskog did it last year.

Johnny will have a very good idea of who wants him and the money they are willing to spend prior to free agency opening.

There’s zero evidence Landeskog was tampered with. He just waited until the Avs were desperate. I don’t think tampering is needed. GMs and agents are well aware of the marketplace ranges.