Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[dammage79]

I'm convinced he's not coming back. What that does to the team afterwards makes for some real intrigue. Flames have a good core of players in their prime or entering their prime.

Then you have to be weary of the over pay reaction to keep chucky or overpaying Mangiapane . Who is going to be a real tough nugget in negotiations this time around.

[GioforPM]

It’s not gonna be 9.5. But it doesn’t have to be far north of that to be tough to beat when it’s 8 years versus 7. 9.5 is 76m, which for any other team is 10.8. 10m x 8 would need 11.43 from another team to be beaten.

[MrMike]

I don’t know how excited I would be about this team without Gaudreau coming back and building around a 10+ million Tkachuk.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by MrMike

I don’t know how excited I would be about this team without Gaudreau coming back and building around a 10+ million Tkachuk.

If Gaudreau doesn't come back they'll offer Tkachuk just the RFA qualifier or try to trade him. It'll be rebuild time. Can't see them anchoring themselves to Tkachuk as their go-to star.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by dino7c

26 year rebuild lol

you're right though, who the fack knows, over the next 8 years any number of teams will be good...except the Oilers they will remain NG

Ya I could have used other wording especially for FLA...they are still a funny case where it looked like it was going to continue to fail despite having so many seemingly good pieces in the right positions, but it wasn't until Zito took his buy low approach that it finally clicked (of course Q had a big part of it, too).

Over the last few years I thought MIN's roster and cap situation looked dire. But Kaprizov shows up out of nowhere and some other things clicked and they've at least remained a consistent playoff team. The cap actually hits the fan this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're playing again in late April.

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Some players also value their teammates. I personally don’t think the range is $32 mil as I just don’t see Johnny getting $104 mil over $72 mil. Max he gets is maybe $90 to $95.

Winning the division and playing with Tkachuk and Lindholm seem like Johnny was loving the game this year. I can see him leaving $10 mil on the table to keep it going.

Which is fair enough, but unless you and your best buddies are all getting similar term with NMCs then it shouldn't be a priority (for anyone in any job - enjoy the good times & camaraderie while it lasts, but you can never bank on it continuing)

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Almost all the guys I listed are ppg for their careers (or they’re 2-way C’s a little under that)…seems like you’re the one moving goalposts

Swap Kopitar and Gaudreau. I think the Flames win a few less regular season games but still win the division. But I also think the Flames would also be just getting finished with losing to the Avs in 4-5.


I never said Hall was as good as Johnny. I’m just pointing out how it would be silly to rank him too heavily based on that season (which is probably every bit as impressive as Johnny’s year despite the somewhat pedestrian point total - look at that team) - which is exactly what everyone seems to be doing here.


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Can you please join my hockey pool?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by VilleN

He’s going to get as much money as he possibly can in the city he wants to play in. It’s the agents job to do this, unless the player explicitly says don’t go higher than $X AAV because I want my team to be able to sign more good players. And I doubt that is very common.

Put yourself in Johnny's shoes. Like honestly sit there and try to envision it.

What would you do?

Personally, I'd want to see at least $10.5MM over 8 meaning $84MM or I'm going to free agency. I think GioforPM has it correct on the numbers but I'm not losing multiple millions of dollars to play in Calgary no matter how many times The Cobra or anybody else wants you to believe this "isn't over money".

Yes, it is.

[NOISIA]

90% of people in this thread need to chill.

[Flamesfan05]

Yeah Johnny is not going to give a big discount

If he doesn’t care about money, he would have signed already

It’s all about $$$ at this point IMO

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by NOISIA

90% of people in this thread need to chill.

The Flames are about 3 weeks away from losing their best player and receiving no value for it.

I think actually to be honest people have been remarkably calm up to this point. There actually does come a time to panic, believe it or not.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by NOISIA

90% of people in this thread need to chill.

You'll find that over time, CP isn't a place for "chill" people.

A good portion of posters are a millisecond away from assuming the worst case scenario at all times.

[Manhattanboy]

Originally Posted by NOISIA

90% of people in this thread need to chill.

I choose not to chill.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Put yourself in Johnny's shoes. Like honestly sit there and try to envision it.

What would you do?

Personally, I'd want to see at least $10.5MM over 8 meaning $84MM or I'm going to free agency. I think GioforPM has it correct on the numbers but I'm not losing multiple millions of dollars to play in Calgary no matter how many times The Cobra or anybody else wants you to believe this "isn't over money".

Yes, it is.

Subject to taxes another team would have to offer 12 million to beat 10.5. JG would be crazy not to take that offer because he ain’t getting 12 elsewhere.

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Yeah Johnny is not going to give a big discount

If he doesn’t care about money, he would have signed already

It’s all about $$$ at this point IMO

Absolutely. Last big contract as well as richest. Cruel game.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Subject to taxes another team would have to offer 12 million to beat 10.5. JG would be crazy not to take that offer because he ain’t getting 12 elsewhere.

For the player $84 million over 7 years is better than $84 million over 8 years. And that's without considering all the other factors that affect his take home pay.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

For the player $84 million over 7 years is better than $84 million over 8 years. And that's without considering all the other factors that affect his take home pay.

He’s not getting 84M over 7 years though. No one is giving him 12M.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Yeah Johnny is not going to give a big discount

If he doesn’t care about money, he would have signed already

It’s all about $$$ at this point IMO

He perhaps wouldn’t have signed if he is still considering if he wants to stay or go.

I believe if he chooses to go it won’t be because the Flames did not offer enough.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

...about 3 weeks away...

Exactly. There's still three weeks left. Some people are acting like free agency is mere hours away.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Subject to taxes another team would have to offer 12 million to beat 10.5. JG would be crazy not to take that offer because he ain’t getting 12 elsewhere.

Jeff Carter just signed a 3.5M contract/year for 2 years at 37. Pavelski 6M at 37 turning 38. Suter, even after being bought out, signed a 14M year (over 4 years) contract when he was 36. Elite players often are able to perform at high levels when they age. If Gaudreau wants to play in eight years, the chances of him being worth "nothing" are probably less than him still being worth a decent sized contract.

Kunitz, Filppula, they were making multiple millions as 35+ year olds. It doesn't just take the Jagrs. But Iginla signed a 6M (performance bonus laden) contract when he was 36 coming off his 7M/year contract, then another 16M contract (over 4 years) when he was 37. St.Louis was over 35 when he signed a 22M contract. Kovalchuk 35+ when he signed 6.25M/year for 3 years. Thornton's highest cap hit ever was when he was over 35+ and signed for 8M.

So an 84M, 8 year contract at 10.5M or an 11M, 7 year contract and then hoping he's still worth half that when he's 35 would still net him 82.5M if he wanted to keep playing. It's not guaranteed, he could get injured, he could decline, but it's not like he's guaranteed to become useless by 35 either and if he follows trends of many superstars before him and the cap keeps going up, he could maybe be making 8 figures still.

Inversely if he doesn't like hockey and just wants to earn as much to support a carefree life when he's in his early to mid 30s then that 8 year might not be worth chasing even.

Plus if he has a nice house in Calgary and thinks we're in a bubble that won't last 8 years, selling it now, using the money to invest, and being able to have one residence in the east is also worth something.

I think that eight year is worth more to the teams to lower cap-hit than it is to a player like Johnny.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It’s not gonna be 9.5. But it doesn’t have to be far north of that to be tough to beat when it’s 8 years versus 7. 9.5 is 76m, which for any other team is 10.8. 10m x 8 would need 11.43 from another team to be beaten.

A 7 year deal probably doesn't need to match/beat an 8 year deal, but at least be within 3-5M of the total value. Hard to put odds on it with so much uncertainty 7 years down the road, but I'd say 33% chance he could sign for 5M+, 33% chance he can sign for ~$2-3M, and 33% chance he's done playing entirely one way or another.

So the bigger question at that point comes to contract structure/signing bonuses. If a 7x11M has $70M in signing bonuses and the 8x$10M only has $40- $50M (especially if they drop off at the end) then the risk vs. reward equation changes substantially, and the 7 year offer might be more attractive despite the lower total value.

Of course SB's mostly guard against buyouts and work stoppages, whereas the bigger total value would be better in case of LTIRetirement.

Ovechkin, Pavelski, Kovalchuk, Fleury, Thornton, Marleau, Chara, Koivu, Markov, Goligoski, Gonchar, Datsyuk, Iginla, Rinne, etc. have all signed 5M+ contracts after age 34. It's definitely not something to bank on, but he could come out further ahead after leaving a few million on the table with a 7 year deal. It's noteworthy that most of the wingers on that list are goalscorers moreso than playmakers, though.