Is this Treliving's toughest offseason?

[The Cobra]

You can make all of the comparables you want, Johnny has the option of saying "I want X or I'm testing UFA".

He can set whatever parameters he wants to. he can be reasonable if he wants to, although I expect he'd be signed by now if he was taking any discount.

Barkov's AAV? It's only relevant to the extent Johnny makes it relevant.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by DinnerDog

He's going to end up with over $120M in career earnings, I really don't believe this will come down to money. He's not going to leave/stay for +/- $5,000,000 total.

Yet players do it all the time.

It's not just the money. It's a matter of how players judge themselves against their peers. For some, it's getting the biggest AAV. For other, it's getting the largest combined dollars. And for others again, it's getting a reasonable deal in a City they enjoy and want to raise a family in.

[Harry Lime]

Panarin's contract ends when he is 34. Kuchurov's ends when he is 33. Barkov is making 10M per season and he is two years younger than Johnny. Johnny signs 8 years and he is playing under that contract at 36.

There is an expected drop in production around 34-35. That will garner into the AAV.

My guess is 9.5M per over 8 years.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Panarin's contract ends when he is 34. Kuchurov's ends when he is 33. Barkov is making 10M per season and he is two years younger than Johnny. Johnny signs 8 years and he is playing under that contract at 36.

There is an expected drop in production around 34-35. That will garner into the AAV.

My guess is 9.5M per over 8 years.

It likely won't garner into it, as teams understand when the sign players who are UFA's, they will need to plug their noses at the end of the contract. The cost of contending.

[Elkyiv]

if Johnny walks, could we replace his production with multiple signings the likes of Burakovsky, Forsberg, Trochek, Kadri?

[boogerz]

Given the slim pickings for UFA forwards, maybe the Flames should try throwing money at Letang if Johnny walks. At least Letang would add more mobility and puck carrying ability on the backend to help compensate for the hole that Johnny will leave.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by boogerz

Given the slim pickings for UFA forwards, maybe the Flames should try throwing money at Letang if Johnny walks. At least Letang would add more mobility and puck carrying ability on the backend to help compensate for the hole that Johnny will leave.

how much money would you throw at him and for how long? isn't he like 35 or 36?
doesn't seem to be a good use of resources.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Elkyiv

if Johnny walks, could we replace his production with multiple signings the likes of Burakovsky, Forsberg, Trochek, Kadri?

I mean you get one one Forsberg and Kadri, neither of those guys will be cheap. I have zero interest in the Flames being the highest bidder on Forsberg. Will be expensive and is injury prone.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by dino7c

With an 8x10.5 deal another team would need to give Gaudreau 12x7 to match the dollar figure

Way too simplistic of a view.

He would get a contract in that 8th year. Would have to evaluate the value of what he would get there as well, and with the cap going up it could be in the 5-7 million range. Plus more money upfront or in early years is also more value. Way more to it then money over 7 or 8 years.

[DionTheDman]

I was told that the holdup with Johnny is not the team -- he loves it. It's not the city -- he and his wife both love it. I've been told it's a specific person on the front-office team that he is not entirely fond of. Absent that obstacle, apparently it would have been done already. FWIW.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I was told that the holdup with Johnny is not the team -- he loves it. It's not the city -- he and his wife both love it. I've been told it's a specific person on the front-office team that he is not entirely fond of. Absent that obstacle, apparently it would have been done already. FWIW.

That seems really, really weird seeing he wouldn't have a lot of interactions with the front office team over the course of the season. Also if that was the case then surely he's going to free agency as I don't see the Flames dismissing a front office employee just because a player didn't like him.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

how much money would you throw at him and for how long? isn't he like 35 or 36?
doesn't seem to be a good use of resources.

Letang is a UFA. What else are those resources going to be spent on if Johnny Hockey walks? The Flames have no picks left in 2022 or 2023 to trade away or use for offer sheets (only three picks left for this year and five for next year), and this year's crop of UFA forwards is extremely thin.

If the goal is to win now and a rebuild is completely off the table, then offer Letang what he makes now for another 2-3 years.

He's still good enough to play 25 mins a game, can easily slide into Johnny's spot on the PP, and could take over Johnny's role as primary puck carrier

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Kane 15.2% @ 8 years
Panarin - 14.3% @ 7 years
Marner - 13.4% @ 6 years
Benn - 13% @ 8 years
Kucherov - 11.9% @ 8 years
Stone - 11.9% @ 8 years
Point - 11.7% @ 8 years

Those are the top wingers. Kane is a real outlier. Panarin being in a bidding war and only having 7 years max drove his number up pretty high. Marner, a RFA, and getting 13.4% doesn't look great on, but it is what it is.

Treliving will look at the 12% group as comparables where Gross will start with the Marner number is my guess.

That makes a range of ~$9.9M to $11.06MM. If Gaudreau goes to market, then he'll probably get the ~15% range likely which is $12.4MM

8 years @ 11.06 = $88.4MM
7 years @ 12.4 = $86.8MM

It looks to me like Tre has to work with Benn's 13% to get to where I think Johnny will get to if he hits the market. Unless you don't believe Gaudreau belongs in this grouping.

Even though I personally don't feel like Tkachuk is in this same grouping, his numbers this year tell everyone different. So, same same.

Nobody should be surprised two 100 point players is going to cost over $20MM a year. I guess Tre's decision is whether he wants that money to be spent on wingers. I'll be disappointed if he decides that's not the greatest way to distribute the cap, but I'll understand.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I was told that the holdup with Johnny is not the team -- he loves it. It's not the city -- he and his wife both love it. I've been told it's a specific person on the front-office team that he is not entirely fond of. Absent that obstacle, apparently it would have been done already. FWIW.

* Balls up fist *

Conroy!

/s

[Reggie Dunlop]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I was told that the holdup with Johnny is not the team -- he loves it. It's not the city -- he and his wife both love it. I've been told it's a specific person on the front-office team that he is not entirely fond of. Absent that obstacle, apparently it would have been done already. FWIW.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Way too simplistic of a view.

He would get a contract in that 8th year. Would have to evaluate the value of what he would get there as well, and with the cap going up it could be in the 5-7 million range. Plus more money upfront or in early years is also more value. Way more to it then money over 7 or 8 years.

That's not simplistic, at all, and it's discussed all the time.

A 29 year old player would be risking a lot in hoping the market, his health and his skill go the way of making a new contract in 7 years worth the wait.

Very much in play if you are the only team that can give him 8 years.

So if his market is $10M or $70M total, and the Flames have that 8th year it could easily end up with $76/12 for $9.5M per year and he happily signs it to avoid the risk.

[Royle9]

Originally Posted by DionTheDman

I was told that the holdup with Johnny is not the team -- he loves it. It's not the city -- he and his wife both love it. I've been told it's a specific person on the front-office team that he is not entirely fond of. Absent that obstacle, apparently it would have been done already. FWIW.

No way it’s Conroy.
No way it’s Snowy.
Doubt it’s Tre

Could it be the Eliminator?
Maybe it’s Pascal, his wife is so nauseatingly drooly over McDingle that it would be enough to drive anyone away.