Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

zero

Good input.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Don’t see any reason why Tkachuk would consider entertaining that.

It brings him to UFA as a 29 year old. At that time he would presumably be the most sought after free agent that year still in his prime. There are currently 11 skaters with a cap-hit over 10M. Three of them were signed as 28 or 29 year olds (Karlsson, Doughty, Kopitar). None of them are particularly living up to their contracts in terms of being top 10 players in the league (in part due to injuries). It's quite clear teams are willing to pay those 29 year olds as though they don't have a major chance of regression by the end of the contract. And these were all signed by their current team without even making UFA.

Sign a 5 year deal, all at "prime" value. Then sign a 7 or 8 year deal, again all at "prime" value that brings him to retirement at 36 or 37. That's probably nearing the best way to maximize his career earnings while mitigating risk.

He could try to become a UFA as early as possible, but now he's a 25 year old with teams wanting him for 7 years bringing him to 32/33 and could be regressing like we see with a lot of players. Like Toews even and the chance of that big contract is less likely. Same results if he signs for 8 years.

He could also sign a series of one year contracts of course, or a 1 year deal then a 4 year deal, to again get to UFA as a 29 year old but it does increase risk if an injury or bad season happens during that 1 year.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Matching 10 Mil contracts, 5 year for Matt and 8 for Johnny?

Hopefully keeping Johnny will cost Ovechkin/Kucherov/Kane type money, but I fear that it may cost Panarin type money. If it's the latter, a difficult decision might have to be made in regards to one of Chucky or Mang.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Don’t see any reason why Tkachuk would consider entertaining that. Discount for Johnny and he probably would have signed that already if he was interested

You are right in one sense, if the Flames had offered Johnny 8x10 he would have signed that already buy it isn't because he wouldn't be interested in that deal but much more likely because that deal has not been offered. BT has time, he is going to go as long as he can to get the best number at this point.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are right in one sense, if the Flames had offered Johnny 8x10 he would have signed that already buy it isn't because he wouldn't be interested in that deal but much more likely because that deal has not been offered. BT has time, he is going to go as long as he can to get the best number at this point.

Johnny has proved himself out of that deal which would look great for the Flames now. I doubt the Flames offered it before he exploded for a Hart type season but Johnny so far has quieted all the doubters with his elite play on both ends of the ice.

He is a few points away from the most even strength points in a season during the cap era and the highest +- of a forward in multiple decades.

If that is the Flames best offer Johnny should be in no rush to sign that but the Flames best offer likely comes close to the eve of free agency when they can still offer 8 years.

Johnny may want to and be willing to stay here but I don’t think he would be bent out of shape to move back to the north east US and live close to family with less travel. Flames will need to pay big time to keep him and I believe they have a decent chance of doing so. Panarin money should be what he is after

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

It brings him to UFA as a 29 year old. At that time he would presumably be the most sought after free agent that year still in his prime. There are currently 11 skaters with a cap-hit over 10M. Three of them were signed as 28 or 29 year olds (Karlsson, Doughty, Kopitar). None of them are particularly living up to their contracts in terms of being top 10 players in the league (in part due to injuries). It's quite clear teams are willing to pay those 29 year olds as though they don't have a major chance of regression by the end of the contract. And these were all signed by their current team without even making UFA.

Sign a 5 year deal, all at "prime" value. Then sign a 7 or 8 year deal, again all at "prime" value that brings him to retirement at 36 or 37. That's probably nearing the best way to maximize his career earnings while mitigating risk.

He could try to become a UFA as early as possible, but now he's a 25 year old with teams wanting him for 7 years bringing him to 32/33 and could be regressing like we see with a lot of players. Like Toews even and the chance of that big contract is less likely. Same results if he signs for 8 years.

He could also sign a series of one year contracts of course, or a 1 year deal then a 4 year deal, to again get to UFA as a 29 year old but it does increase risk if an injury or bad season happens during that 1 year.

5 years is too long. I think you may be on to something if it is a 3 year deal but I don’t see Tkachuk signing for 5 unless it is much higher than $10M

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are right in one sense, if the Flames had offered Johnny 8x10 he would have signed that already buy it isn't because he wouldn't be interested in that deal but much more likely because that deal has not been offered. BT has time, he is going to go as long as he can to get the best number at this point.

Not sure how waiting benefits BT - but it definitely benefits Johnny. I have a feeling that nothing will be signed until the last week before free agency, when Johnny will be able to talk to other teams to see what they will offer while the Flames will still be able to sign him for 8 years. I think even if an 8 year $80M offer was on the table, it doesn't hurt Johnny to wait until that week in case he gets a 7 year $75M+ offer that he can use for leverage.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

As opposed to your irrational and unfounded hatred of Gio?
That's not embarrassing at all?

Wow you have some guts trotting that out. Giold was the entire problem with Tkachuk last year. Sick of his antics and not wanting to back him up.
haha. Sick of how the Flames used to crumble in key situations and games because of leadership yet letting our effing captain off the hook in every post. Here is a bag

Irrational and unfounded hate for Giold.... hahahaha Look at what happened after he left? Career year for Tkachuk. Flames team is 10 fold better. Every single dman who started this year, played better than his last 2 years with us. We'll have more wins in round 1 of the playoffs this year than Gio had being our captain for 7 years. lol

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Hopefully keeping Johnny will cost Ovechkin/Kucherov/Kane type money, but I fear that it may cost Panarin type money. If it's the latter, a difficult decision might have to be made in regards to one of Chucky or Mang.

not a tough call, IMO

[Jay Random]

Translation of Johnny Makarov's post:

‘I don't have an irrational hatred for Gio. Here, let me show you just how much I hate him, with the following unhinged rant.’

You know what Giordano never got here? A full year under Darryl Sutter – who, by the way, said he was the team's best defenceman while he was still here. You just want all the bad things about the team to be Giordano's fault, so you ignore every other change that happened between then and now.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Translation of Johnny Makarov's post:

‘I don't have an irrational hatred for Gio. Here, let me show you just how much I hate him, with the following unhinged rant.’

You know what Giordano never got here? A full year under Darryl Sutter – who, by the way, said he was the team's best defenceman while he was still here. You just want all the bad things about the team to be Giordano's fault, so you ignore every other change that happened between then and now.

What is an old horse with 3 legs going to do for Darryl Sutter? Every single D Man has out played him. Name one who hasn't.

Even in hindsight you guys can't admit that you wrong. that is effing laughable.

Darryl says a lot of things that he doesn't really mean. Unless you really buy that he thinks the Oilers are better than us... lol

I guess I weeded out all the guys who blasted Chucky last year and wanted him gone from our team...

[Eric Vail]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Wow you have some guts trotting that out. Giold was the entire problem with Tkachuk last year. Sick of his antics and not wanting to back him up.
haha. Sick of how the Flames used to crumble in key situations and games because of leadership yet letting our effing captain off the hook in every post. Here is a bag

Irrational and unfounded hate for Giold.... hahahaha Look at what happened after he left? Career year for Tkachuk. Flames team is 10 fold better. Every single dman who started this year, played better than his last 2 years with us. We'll have more wins in round 1 of the playoffs this year than Gio had being our captain for 7 years. lol

Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: 'after this, therefore because of this') is an informal fallacy that states: "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because correlation sometimes appears to suggest causality. The fallacy lies in a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors potentially responsible for the result that might rule out the connection.[2]

A simple example is "the rooster crows immediately before sunrise; therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

[AC]

An undrafted player who battled his way up the ranks to play 949 games for the franchise. He was a captain, all-star, and Norris winner for this team. Turning on that player and mocking him because he aged is one of the most embarrassing stances I've ever seen on this board.

It's honestly pathetic.

[Hockey-and_stuff]

I've had this poster blocked for ages. You won't miss anything of substance if you do it yourself.

Sent from my SM-G998W using Tapatalk

[Muta]

Originally Posted by Hockey-and_stuff

I've had this poster blocked for ages. You won't miss anything of substance if you do it yourself.

Sent from my SM-G998W using Tapatalk

The Ignore list is a wonderful thing, especially after the trainwrecks that have been the arena and off-topic political threads over the years.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Eric Vail

Post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin: 'after this, therefore because of this') is an informal fallacy that states: "Since event Y followed event X, event Y must have been caused by event X."

Post hoc is a particularly tempting error because correlation sometimes appears to suggest causality. The fallacy lies in a conclusion based solely on the order of events, rather than taking into account other factors potentially responsible for the result that might rule out the connection.[2]

A simple example is "the rooster crows immediately before sunrise; therefore the rooster causes the sun to rise."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post_hoc_ergo_propter_hoc

Yup. Also gone: Bennett. He is obviously a terrible player then, right? Or maybe it's the addition of Trevor Lewis that's righted the ship this year.

Tkachuk is playing much better. He's also on the top line, which is a change in itself. He's also doing what supposedly Gio (and others) suggested he do, which is focus harder between the whistles and not afterwards. I suspect Sutter said much the same to him.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

What is an old horse with 3 legs going to do for Darryl Sutter? Every single D Man has out played him. Name one who hasn't.

Even in hindsight you guys can't admit that you wrong. that is effing laughable.

Darryl says a lot of things that he doesn't really mean. Unless you really buy that he thinks the Oilers are better than us... lol

I guess I weeded out all the guys who blasted Chucky last year and wanted him gone from our team...

I have always had reservations for Gio's ultimate worth to the team when he was here. There are those that believe he is the gold standard and others not as much, but never any that would fully dismiss him like this.

I will admit that I was never overly impressed by a team under his captaincy but only so much of that can be put squarely on Gio's shoulders. He was a hard worker that played by the right rules and that is more that can be said of a lot of players that have come through here.

Do I think this current group is better without him, definitely. But this is more of a sum of its whole parts type of thing. To say that Zadorov or Gudbranson have been better than Gio would have been this year is comical. Both have been awful for the last month, and Gio would never have that low of a floor, even at this juncture of his career.

[Demzy84]

Is LTIR still a thing in the off-season?

Pull a little Vegas and sign Gaudreau and Tkachuk to matching 8x10’s and use up Monahan’s cap space for the season. Let him sit for the full season and get healthy and come back next playoffs ready to go!

If I recall too, players should play back owners by end of 2023-2024 season so the cap is suppose to increase significantly just in time for Lindholm and Hannifin extensions

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

not a tough call, IMO

I've said it before. This team can afford to keep Johnny, Tkachuk and Mangiapane so long as all three players aren't completely out for blood.

$10M, $9.5M, $5M is doable (approx total $8.5m AAV increase)

The tradeoff is going to be that cheaper players like Pelletier, Ruzicka, Gawdin, Mackey, Valimaki and Stone play prominent roles next year on cheap contracts to fill the gaps.

(approx total $7.2M AAV decrease if you lose Gudbranson, Zadorov and the Brouwer buyout)

The net difference is roughly only $1.3M that you either absorb in a Monahan LTIR, buyout or trade. It's ultimately up to the players so long as the team is prepared to pay the piper somewhere in the ranges above. I honestly can't see these players cutting bait if so, and really, if the team isn't prepared to go there long term, what exactly are we doing as a franchise anyway?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

You are right in one sense, if the Flames had offered Johnny 8x10 he would have signed that already buy it isn't because he wouldn't be interested in that deal but much more likely because that deal has not been offered. BT has time, he is going to go as long as he can to get the best number at this point.

If Trev plays the waiting game, he’ll be dancing with himself come midnight.