[News] Monahan on LTIR with season ending surgery. Kylington day to day. Mackey called up

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I wouldn't say he's been terrible or anything. He was hurt in training camp and had a slow recovery to start the year.

All things considered, a down year is probably to be expected to some extent after that, but to fall off offensively and never really get back on track on such a good Heat team is definitely a red flag for his NHL ceiling.

It's not everything, but for me, the true top end prospects always find a way to get their production back on track at some point, and I'm still not really seeing it with only 14 points in his last 25 games.

to be fair have you watched him play? even one time?

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by dino7c

to be fair have you watched him play? even one time?

Really, what does it matter - I can only formulate an opinion based on what I have available in stats, game reports and farm reports. There's only so much you can do with the tools at hand.

Zary has some serious work to do in order to get his game back to the level you'd expect from a first round pick that should be a top player in the AHL this season. I will admit that his last 5 games have reportedly been quite good, but I'm not going to put him back on the pedestal until he does it for a sizable portion of the season.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I haven't been paying attention. Has Zary really dropped off that much?

No. He's a first year pro player who only played 24 games last year.
Calling him a C+ prospect, as the poster did, has no real merit.

Right now I would rank him 4th in the Flames' prospect pool, and part of that top tier that is clearly separated from the rest.

1. Pelletier
2. Wolf
3. Coranato
4. Zary

That's the group in my view. I would not deal any of them, let alone to dump a contract.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Really, what does it matter - I can only formulate an opinion based on what I have available in stats, game reports and farm reports. There's only so much you can do with the tools at hand.

Zary has some serious work to do in order to get his game back to the level you'd expect from a first round pick that should be a top player in the AHL this season. I will admit that his last 5 games have reportedly been quite good, but I'm not going to put him back on the pedestal until he does it for a sizable portion of the season.

I would say this is more about your expectations for this season being out of whack than a real and informed view of the player.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It all comes down to the money Mangiapane wants

Holding out hope he'll take payment in pretzels and croissants.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

No. He's a first year pro player who only played 24 games last year.
Calling him a C+ prospect, as the poster did, has no real merit.

Right now I would rank him 4th in the Flames' prospect pool, and part of that top tier that is clearly separated from the rest.

1. Pelletier
2. Wolf
3. Coranato
4. Zary

That's the group in my view. I would not deal any of them, let alone to dump a contract.

I don't think walking away from Monahan's contract scot free will come cheap, but agree you don't want to give up a top prospect.

Starting to believe the team could deal Mangiapane for a return and trying to sign 13 and 19 with what is left. And hope for the best with Monahan.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don't think walking away from Monahan's contract scot free will come cheap, but agree you don't want to give up a top prospect.

Starting to believe the team could deal Mangiapane for a return and trying to sign 13 and 19 with what is left. And hope for the best with Monahan.

I would consider moving Mangiapane too if you have to move someone. He's been a fantastic player, but is streaky and there is risk that you end up overpaying him.
And it may be a chance to sell high on him.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I would consider moving Mangiapane too if you have to move someone. He's been a fantastic player, but is streaky and there is risk that you end up overpaying him.
And it may be a chance to sell high on him.

It may have to be done but it would be a shame as he was found money for this franchise and leaves a 30 goal void in the lineup that won't be easily replaced. His goal production combined with his play last year in the WHC has likely elevated his value as high as it's ever going to get. Would be nice to get back into the 1st round of the draft this year or another 1st for next year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

All things considered, a down year is probably to be expected to some extent after that, but to fall off offensively and never really get back on track on such a good Heat team is definitely a red flag for his NHL ceiling.

It's not everything, but for me, the true top end prospects always find a way to get their production back on track at some point, and I'm still not really seeing it with only 14 points in his last 25 games when by all accounts he is fully healthy.

LOL. He also has 14 points in his last 20, but setting the cutoff further back certainly suits your preconceptions much better.

By accounts I have seen from those actually watching, Zary has been absolutely fantastic the last several games. He is starting to dominate once again like the player he was in his rookie pro season last year.


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[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It all comes down to the money Mangiapane wants

We know from last time that he and his agent want to see the dough

[NOISIA]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

LOL. He also has 14 points in his last 20, but setting the cutoff further back certainly suits your preconceptions much better.

By accounts I have seen from those actually watching, Zary has been absolutely fantastic the last several games. He is starting to dominate once again like the player he was in his rookie pro season last year.


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This is his rookie pro year. He only played 9 pro games last year.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by NOISIA

This is his rookie pro year. He only played 9 pro games last year.

Correct. But he was the best player on the team for those nine games last year.

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[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by BigRed

I'm not; I'm just positing that paying for potential has risks and he hasn't proven much yet.

Right now, Mangi has huge potential -- annual 30 goal scorer, maybe. But I'm disinclined to pay for maybes. That's why I'd bridge him to UFA at a Toffoli scale deal That would cover the Flames window with guys like Lindholm + Hanafin still on bargain contracts.

You are though.

His potential is not that he might be a yearly 30 goal scorer - he has already pretty much proven he is that.

His potential is that he might be a 40 goal scorer, or that he might even - in an ideal situation and under the right circumstances - score 50 one day. That's the unknown potential we can't be sure about.

Look at the final 21 games of last season, 7 games at the world championship, and the first 53 games of this season. Putting those together, he scored 45 goals in 81 games. With this in mind, it's clear that scoring 30 per 82 game season is well within his wheelhouse. And as mentioned before, he did this without playing on the Flames' top line and without playing on the top PP unit.

Has he cooled off in recent games? Yes, he clearly has. But the same can be said for (aside from Johnny & Chucky) basically the entire team, outside of one track meet with the Oilers.

The other thing I don't think you're taking into account is advanced stats. Mang is an absolute darling when it comes to advanced stats. He plays the game the right way and generally makes the team better when he's on the ice. Even in the past 16 games where his production has gone cold, he still has a 60% GF% 5 on 5, which puts him in the top 20% of forwards in the league, and has a 60% xGF% 5 on 5, which puts him in the top 10% of forwards in the league. If you look at the entire year as a whole, his numbers are better yet - he has the 42nd best GF% and 10th best xGF% in the NHL among forwards that have at least 500 minutes.

Is it absolutely, completely, totally, guaranteed beyond any shred of doubt that he will average 30+ goals per season over his next 5 or 6 seasons? Of course not. But then again, there are never any guarantees of anything when signing a player; it's a reality that is prevalent throughout the NHL and professional sports for that matter. There is always significant risk involved in any signing, no matter how sure things seem before the signing.

You think signing Gaudreau and Tkachuk to long term extensions isn't something that's filled with risk? Sure they are more proven players than Mangiapane is, but their track records and past accomplishments don't protect the team from potential risks such as unforeseen regression, complacency, or injury ala the Sean Monahan situation. Also keep in mind that Johnny's lack of size may start to work against him when he enters his mid 30s.

The point is, risk is unavoidable, and taking on some risk is ok. Just as long as it's done in a thoughtful way, and a reasonable balance of risk vs reward is struck, that makes sense for both the team and the player.

As for what kind of contract is suitable for keeping Eatbread long term, that all depends on how he closes out the season + playoffs. If the recent cold streak continues, it will hurt his leverage significantly, as it should. His relative lack of overall points works against him, too. Overall, I think he's looking at getting a deal very similar to McCann, though that dollar amount goes up in proportion to how strong a finish he has here in the upcoming 3 months.

Looking at comparables on the Flames... at no point in Coleman's career was he as productive as Eatbread has been this season - yet it didn't stop him from getting $5M per on a long term deal. Backlund's career high in goals is 22 and points is 53; it was his one and only 50+ point season. Yet he still makes well over $5M per on a long term deal. Toffoli's case is interesting to me, as I'm a bit surprised he didn't get a larger contract from Montreal in terms of AAV. His injury history and relatively slow skating is likely what worked against him in that negotiation. Or he just REALLY wanted to go to Montreal.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

You are though.

His potential is not that he might be a yearly 30 goal scorer - he has already pretty much proven he is that.

His potential is that he might be a 40 goal scorer, or that he might even - in an ideal situation and under the right circumstances - score 50 one day. That's the unknown potential we can't be sure about.

Look at the final 21 games of last season, 7 games at the world championship, and the first 53 games of this season. Putting those together, he scored 45 goals in 81 games. With this in mind, it's clear that scoring 30 per 82 game season is well within his wheelhouse. And as mentioned before, he did this without playing on the Flames' top line and without playing on the top PP unit.

Has he cooled off in recent games? Yes, he clearly has. But the same can be said for (aside from Johnny & Chucky) basically the entire team, outside of one track meet with the Oilers.

The other thing I don't think you're taking into account is advanced stats. Mang is an absolute darling when it comes to advanced stats. He plays the game the right way and generally makes the team better when he's on the ice. Even in the past 16 games where his production has gone cold, he still has a 60% GF% 5 on 5, which puts him in the top 20% of forwards in the league, and has a 60% xGF% 5 on 5, which puts him in the top 10% of forwards in the league. If you look at the entire year as a whole, his numbers are better yet - he has the 42nd best GF% and 10th best xGF% in the NHL among forwards that have at least 500 minutes.

Is it absolutely, completely, totally, guaranteed beyond any shred of doubt that he will average 30+ goals per season over his next 5 or 6 seasons? Of course not. But then again, there are never any guarantees of anything when signing a player; it's a reality that is prevalent throughout the NHL and professional sports for that matter. There is always significant risk involved in any signing, no matter how sure things seem before the signing.

You think signing Gaudreau and Tkachuk to long term extensions isn't something that's filled with risk? Sure they are more proven players than Mangiapane is, but their track records and past accomplishments don't protect the team from potential risks such as unforeseen regression, complacency, or injury ala the Sean Monahan situation. Also keep in mind that Johnny's lack of size may start to work against him when he enters his mid 30s.

The point is, risk is unavoidable, and taking on some risk is ok. Just as long as it's done in a thoughtful way, and a reasonable balance of risk vs reward is struck, that makes sense for both the team and the player.

As for what kind of contract is suitable for keeping Eatbread long term, that all depends on how he closes out the season + playoffs. If the recent cold streak continues, it will hurt his leverage significantly, as it should. His relative lack of overall points works against him, too. Overall, I think he's looking at getting a deal very similar to McCann, though that dollar amount goes up in proportion to how strong a finish he has here in the upcoming 3 months.

Looking at comparables on the Flames... at no point in Coleman's career was he as productive as Eatbread has been this season - yet it didn't stop him from getting $5M per on a long term deal. Backlund's career high in goals is 22 and points is 53; it was his one and only 50+ point season. Yet he still makes well over $5M per on a long term deal. Toffoli's case is interesting to me, as I'm a bit surprised he didn't get a larger contract from Montreal in terms of AAV. His injury history and relatively slow skating is likely what worked against him in that negotiation. Or he just REALLY wanted to go to Montreal.

I’m starting to feel like you’re his agent starting negotiations early!

I’m a Mangiapane fan. I really am. I’d love for him to have a long productive career as part of a flames dynasty. But the math is the math (apologies) and if he gets $6ish, one of our established stars has to go.

Keeping two of the three, i let Mangiapane go. I don’t like it. But it’s what I do because I’m not a gambler. You rarely see the chemistry that exists between Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Nothing is guaranteed, sure, but this is as close as you reasonably get. I’m not giving that up for anything, and certainly not Mangiapane.

I don’t think Coleman and Backlund are good comparables. They make their money on the PK and shutting down elite players. Different skill set, different role.

Another Mangiapane comparable might be Troy Terry (31 goals this year for the first time). He’s an RFA too. Will be interesting to see what he nets.

If some team wants to offer sheet him at $6+, great. The compensation is a solid haul, and more than we’d get in a straight trade anyway.


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[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by BigRed

I’m starting to feel like you’re his agent starting negotiations early!

I’m a Mangiapane fan. I really am. I’d love for him to have a long productive career as part of a flames dynasty. But the math is the math (apologies) and if he gets $6ish, one of our established stars has to go.

Keeping two of the three, i let Mangiapane go. I don’t like it. But it’s what I do because I’m not a gambler. You rarely see the chemistry that exists between Gaudreau and Tkachuk. Nothing is guaranteed, sure, but this is as close as you reasonably get. I’m not giving that up for anything, and certainly not Mangiapane.

I don’t think Coleman and Backlund are good comparables. They make their money on the PK and shutting down elite players. Different skill set, different role.

Another Mangiapane comparable might be Troy Terry (31 goals this year for the first time). He’s an RFA too. Will be interesting to see what he nets.

If some team wants to offer sheet him at $6+, great. The compensation is a solid haul, and more than we’d get in a straight trade anyway.


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If he signs an offer sheet between $4.11M - $6.17M the compensation is a first and a third. If It's over $6.17M it will be a first a second and a third. It's not that much of a haul, it's pretty much what we paid for Toffoli this year, which seems like a great deal for us.

I would be reluctant to lose Mangiapane, I'd rather look towards moving Monahan and Lucic with sweeteners first. Then I would look into moving players like Dube, Coleman, and maybe even Toffoli.

It's a really difficult call right now, and it mostly comes down to projecting Mangiapane's play in the next few years. I think this season Mangiapane has shown himself to be our 4th-5th most valuable forward. I guess we'll find out what's that worth this summer.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by BigRed

if he gets $6ish, one of our established stars has to go.

Not true. It's entierly possible to keep all of Johnny, Chucky, Eatbread, and Kylly.

This organization doesn't know when or if they'll ever have an opportunity to have a HC the calibre of Sutter again. This is a rare opportunity and might as well make the most of it.

[EVERLAST]

Man all this talk/speculation on getting rid of Mangiapane is grating on my nerves. This kid has busted his ass and still is and is going through the same dry spell as allot of others have.
I'll ask people curb their expectations until after seeing what he can do when the playoffs roll around.
People must have a short memory of him winning MVP at the world's and being the player that ultimately made the difference once he showed up .
We have to keep this guy. Somehow someway.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by dino7c

It all comes down to the money Mangiapane wants

Every single thing comes down to Gaudreau. If he re-signs and if so for how much.

Every other domino pales significantly in comparison.

[BigRed]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Every single thing comes down to Gaudreau. If he re-signs and if so for how much.

Every other domino pales significantly in comparison.

This has been my core point all along: Priorities.

JG is priority one. MT is priority two. We can argue from there, but it's really a matter of what's left after those two boxes are checked -- likely not enough for everyone we'd like to keep.

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by EVERLAST

Man all this talk/speculation on getting rid of Mangiapane is grating on my nerves. This kid has busted his ass and still is and is going through the same dry spell as allot of others have.
I'll ask people curb their expectations until after seeing what he can do when the playoffs roll around.
People must have a short memory of him winning MVP at the world's and being the player that ultimately made the difference once he showed up .
We have to keep this guy. Somehow someway.

No one has questioned his commitment and hard work. The plain hard facts are that this team is significantly weaker if we can't keep our top line together versus keeping Mangiapane. Being the one with the highest trade value and potential incoming contract, this is one of the few viable options at this time.